Thread: userque & NUGT/DUST

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

Looked like you getting out of it at the end of the video

Flattery will get you everywhere!

Status Update:

Conducted more tests confirming the efficacy of the three-panel algo signal. Made that subsystem more robust and adaptable.

Proper backtesting using the panel signal only goes back to about Feb. so far. Stopped backtesting the NUGT/DUST algo to catch up on the TSP model's backtesting. The TSP model takes much longer to backtest. I'll be doing it for a while before I have enough data to determine the best three algos. (Right now, they are mostly tied for first place.) While I don't know which three algos are the best yet in the TSP, ALL (of the current testing subset) issued a LONG signal for equities, for Monday.

This means they all agree that Monday will be the low price, from Monday looking forward about 9 days. But, they are not 100%, of course.

I'll start blogging here in a day or so; thereafter, I'll note where the NUGT/DUST algo signals will live going forward and how to access them.

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I've restructured the broadcasting of my trading signals. Details are in my blog post: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/user...roduction.html

Those receiving advance notice of the signals will receive a PM soon with more details.

I'll will still be PM'ing tomorrow's signal, later today/tonight btw.

Once I finish building the TSP back-test data, I'll see how the algo handles forex data.

I wanted to note this for the public record as well:

The CkNN Algo received a major update 5-2-16. It should be even better able to zig and zag daily with the extremely volatile, but profitable, NUGT/DUST pair.

Hope to have a new blog post by tomorrow, and another over the weekend. Been a little tied up lately.

I'll now be working on a system to help determine position sizing. Kinda like a pro blackjack player counts cards and adjusts their bets accordingly. It should increase profits further if I get a working system together.

Originally Posted by userque

I'll now be working on a system to help determine position sizing. Kinda like a pro blackjack player counts cards and adjusts their bets accordingly. It should increase profits further if I get a working system together.

Done.

Now I just have to do more backtesting of the main algo so that the new algo has as much data to work with as possible, as soon as possible. Basically:

CkNN analyzes price action, and 24-28 algos produce forecasts. A sub-algo within the CkNN system scores the algos and makes a final determination: NUGT, DUST, HOLD, or CASH. Now, a new sub-algo will monitor and analyze the main CkNN algo itself, it will determine how confident one should be in the forecast, from 0-100%. A position will be entered (or adjusted) based upon the new Position Sizer Algo. Simply:

The main algo guesses what the instrument will do. The PS guesses how correct the main algo will be. The main algo's job is to pick a direction. The PS will pick a size.

Until now, CkNN was ALWAYS in the market. ALWAYS at 100%.

I'll likely post additional information soon on my personal CkNN website. Non-clients are also welcome:
CkNN Algo

Been busy lately with testing/improving the Algo; otherwise, I would've posted sooner.

Even with the big drop on Fed Wednesday, GDX remains within an orderly price channel; and has bounced off support. That said, the trend is still down:


VIDEOS:

Gold Extends Weekly Losing Run Amid ‘Hawkish’ Fed Commentary
Gold Extends Weekly Losing Run Amid

Technician: Gold’s going lower, and here’s how I’m going to cash in
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/19/techn...o-cash-in.html

VIDEO/IMAGE:

GDX remains in the downtrend. However, the lower trend line is angled slightly more bearishly than the upper. In my opinion, this indicates that bearishness is accelerating.

VIDEOS:

Ira Epstein--Metals:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIqWlIpYL_8

Why the Fed might not be able to put a stop to gold's run
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/23/there...s-contend.html

Should Gold Investors be Sticking to the Sidelines? Peter Hug Comments
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show...r-Hug-Comments