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Thread: userque & NUGT/DUST

  1. #1057

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    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Just a reminder why buying and holding NUGT or DUST is a bad idea and should only be traded...

    1-year returns: NUGT -23%, DUST -87%.




    I have tried for a long time to find shares of these to short, but they're never available. If you can short them both, you're golden.
    This explains it nicely:

    The leveraged ETF problem illustrated
    The leveraged ETF problem illustrated - optionMONSTER (08/14/09)
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

  2.  
  3. #1058

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    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    Quote Originally Posted by userque View Post
    This explains it nicely:

    The leveraged ETF problem illustrated
    The leveraged ETF problem illustrated - optionMONSTER (08/14/09)
    But, there's also this:

    The Long Term Behaviour of Leveraged ETFs
    Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs

    "There is a big myth about leveraged ETFs that has been recently propagated in the media. This article corrects the myth and explains the faulty reasoning that gave rise to it.

    The myth is:

    Leveraged ETFs are not suitable for long term buy and hold

    This myth is expressed in various ways. Some quotes from the internet about leveraged ETFs:

    “unsuitable for buy-and-hold investing,” “leveraged ETFs are bound to deteriorate,” “over time the compounding will kill,” “leveraged ETFs verge on insanity,” “levered ETFs are toxic,” “levered ETFs [are] a horrible idea,” “…practically guarantees losses,” “in the long run [investors] are almost sure to lose money,” “anyone holding these funds for the long term is an uneducated lame-brain.” “Warning: Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Kill Portfolios.”

    There is even an article comparing these ETFs to swine flu.

    These claims are not backed up with mathematics and data. This article rectifies that deficiency and finds that the claims are false. ..."
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

  4.  
  5. #1059

    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    Whether it's compounding math or the fees, they suck as investments.

    Just for some more fun... Since inception in late 2010...




    Amazing. The management should probably be investigated if it's the fees.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  6.  
  7. #1060

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    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    True. I feel that way about most "investment stocks." Trade everything!


    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Whether it's compounding math or the fees, they suck as investments.

    Just for some more fun... Since inception in late 2010...




    Amazing. The management should probably be investigated if it's the fees.
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

  8.  
  9. #1061

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    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    I'm always humored by when people, rather than simple ask for something, attempt to (sophomorically) manipulate instead.

    An In-Depth List of 100 Traits of Narcissists to Better Defend Against Narcissim:
    Signs and traits of narcissists, crazymakers, emotional manipulators, unsafe people

    An in-depth list of 100 traits of narcissists to better defend against narcissism

    "Do you know the tell-tale traits of narcissists, crazy makers, emotional manipulators, controlling predators, and other unsafe people?

    Well now you can! Here is my ULTIMATE, BEST, MOST COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF TRAITS OF NARCISSISTS (and other unsafe people like them): ..."
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

  10.  
  11. #1062

    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Just a reminder why buying and holding NUGT or DUST is a bad idea and should only be traded...

    1-year returns: NUGT -23%, DUST -87%.




    I have tried for a long time to find shares of these to short, but they're never available. If you can short them both, you're golden.
    But, alas, in fair disclosure, NUGT had a reverse split six months ago - and has been a 4-bagger for those buy and holders since!


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  13. #1063

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    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    SIGNAL: DUST

    Code:
    04-22-16 ENTERED DUST AT 02.05
    04-20-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 84.00---04-22-16 EXITED NUGT AT 81.44 5 of last 6 (83.33%) WIN
    04-19-16 ENTERED DUST AT 01.87---04-20-16 EXITED DUST AT 02.01 5 wins in a row
    04-06-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 59.15---04-19-16 EXITED NUGT AT 90.00 MAJOR upgrade, 4 winning trades in a row
    03-30-16 ENTERED DUST AT 03.14---04-06-16 EXITED DUST AT 03.16 MAJOR upgrade
    03-28-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 54.25---03-30-16 EXITED NUGT AT 60.38
    03-21-16 ENTERED DUST AT 03.19---03-28-16 EXITED DUST AT 03.60
    03-18-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 67.65---03-21-16 EXITED NUGT AT 65.20 optimized, fixed 1 bug
    03-15-16 ENTERED DUST AT 03.83---03-18-16 EXITED DUST AT 03.08 minor system update, fixed 2 bugs
    03-14-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 54.37---03-15-16 EXITED NUGT AT 56.80
    03-11-16 ENTERED DUST AT 03.61---03-14-16 EXITED DUST AT 04.04 major system update
    02-29-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 58.25---03-11-16 EXITED NUGT AT 61.59
    02-24-16 ENTERED DUST AT 04.51---02-29-16 EXITED DUST AT 04.22
    02-04-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 36.78---02-24-16 EXITED NUGT AT 55.95 major system update
    02-02-16 ENTERED DUST AT 13.05---02-04-16 EXITED DUST AT 08.77
    01-26-16 ENTERED TNA  AT 44.93---01-27-16 EXITED TNA  AT 44.85
    01-25-16 ENTERED TZA  AT 61.15---01-26-16 EXITED TZA  AT 60.51
    01-20-16 ENTERED TNA  AT 42.98---01-25-16 EXITED TNA  AT 44.79
    __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ___________________________
    DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  15. #1064

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    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    Status Update:

    (Previous tests with TVIX and the single stock were preliminary. The tests only used parameters optimized for GDX, not themselves. A more thorough test would take much longer. The test was basically one of curiosity. Iow, it is still possible that they are tradable via the system.)

    Currently, the GDX backtest using the whole team of 20 sub-algos has been running continually, nearly 24/7, for a few days now. It should probably complete tomorrow. Preliminary results show the team out-trades the single algo responsible for the previously posted backtest results.

    After it finishes, I'll update the old charts/logs/etc I used to post.

    If the current backtest is successful, and it appears it will be, I'll begin posting a regular blog on this site, but posting the algo signals to a different site (disclosed shortly after the successful test).
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  17. #1065

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    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    Status Update:

    As usual, earlier, I interrupt the backtesting to generate Monday's signal. But I couldn't help but to start analyzing the newly minted backtesting output.

    Long story short: I found that using the top three models outperforms everything I tried thus far (including using only the top one model). Simply, the top three algos vote to generate the signal. A wisdom of the crowd type of thing. (By the way, individually, these three algos were neck to neck to neck in performance. A gap exists between them and all the other algos.

    I'll have to monitor this going forward to see if there is a shift in the rankings, and to see if, eventually, some optimal 'look back' time frame is reached. Currently, using all of the backtesting data I have yields the best results.
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

  18.  
  19. #1066

    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    lol let's hope you dont over "improve" it.

  20.  
  21. #1067

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    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    Quote Originally Posted by law87 View Post
    lol let's hope you dont over "improve" it.
    VIDEO: A legitimate concern for any casual observer.
    ____________________________
    Job 38:4-7 New King James Version (NKJV)

    4 “Where were you when I laid the foundations of the earth? Tell Me, if you have understanding.
    5 Who determined its measurements? Surely you know!Or who stretched the line upon it?
    6 To what were its foundations fastened? Or who laid its cornerstone,
    7 When the morning stars sang together, And all the sons of God shouted for joy?

    ____________________________

    You first hear it as a baby:

    "Be careful! Don't fall!"

    You then hear it as a toddler first learning to run fast.

    You then hear it as a kid, first learning to ride a bicycle.

    You then hear it as a teenager/young adult, first learning to ride a bike (motorcycle).


    My journey began long before I found this site.

    I coded my first 'algo' in QBASIC in the 90's; no spreadsheet involved.

    It took many years to learn the most important lesson in this game: PROPER backtesting.

    Coding/Trading new ideas is 'fun.' backtesting wasn't. Backtesting wasn't fun for me until I realized just how important it really is. It is actually trading going forward; but starting in the past, which should be as exciting as trading in real time (minus the immediate profit/losses). In fact, it's more exciting to me now because it is like trading on steroids. I can 'trade' several days worth in a matter of minutes/hours.

    I get to look into future, by looking into the past.
    ________________
    Isaiah 46:10 New King James Version (NKJV)

    10 Declaring the end from the beginning,
    And from ancient times things that are not yet done,

    ________________

    I've shelved many ideas, etc. because--though sounding 'good'--they didn't hunt.

    Don't worry, I won't over "improve" it. I may weeble-wobble, but I won't fall down

    Here's where I'm at now:
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  23. #1068

    Default Re: userque & NUGT/DUST

    That looks like my type of motorcycle !

  24.  
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