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Trading the Stats: Week 15

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I'm on the road this week, working with a netbook is difficult for me, so I'll make this short and sweet.

Both SPX/W4500 had a below average week, AGG had a great week (2nd best in 12 years)
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-review-png

ESD is scheduled to be in the F-Fund on Tuesday, I plan to delay this signal, perhaps opting to go directly into the S-Fund. I have not made a final decision yet (mostly because I was not able to watch the markets last week)
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-esd-png

Last week, ALPAFS got a sell signal across all 4 indexes, in a normal world, I would have exited to the sidelines, but there are reasons I chose to cancel the IFT. For SPX/W4500/NDX, the trading range is tight and the breakdown of Os was only by 1-box. We then created a new column of Xs and if they breakout, it will trigger a BEAR TRAP. You don't see these signals very often, and I have never seen this setup across 3 indexes at the same time. Based on what I've seen, I've made the right call (at least until a direction is decided)
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-alpafs-png

Looking at the S&P 500's long-term 6-month chart on the daily scale: This is the exact setup we need to breakout to higher highs, consolidation following an upwave is your friend. As mentioned before, we have a good base of support in the 2020 zone, so until this area is violated, I see no reason to get bearish on this timeframe.
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-spx-png

I call week 14 a pause week, I think week 15 will do much better, the stats show when SPX/W4500 close down for week 14, week 15 has better odds.
Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-w-all-png

Trouble  Ahead?-2016-15-d-jth-png

If you're feelin froggy...Jump

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Updated 04-10-2016 at 02:42 PM by JTH



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