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JTH

Trading the Stats: Week 12

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__At this point in the month, statistically speaking, this is about as good as it gets. For the first 14 trading days of March, both SPX & W4500 are above 6% which historically leads to a 6-9% finish for the month. In addition, week 11 was a great week for the markets, with SPX/W4500/AGG all closing well above their average baseline returns.

Here's a review of what's happened this March, last week, and last month. __
__SPX had a top 10% March 14-day performance and a top 39% week 11 performance over the past 41 years.
__W4500 had top 11% March 14-day performance and a top 25% week 11 performance over the past 28 years.
__AGG had a top 40% March 14-day performance and a top 25% week 11 performance over the past 12 years.
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Continues Rapid Growth-2016-12-d-review-png



__From last week's blog, some of my short-term expectations have been met. The S&P 500 did flag down along the descending trendline for 2 days, then pushed and closed above the overhead 2040 gap. What's left is a re-test of the descending trendline. If we do bounce off a re-test of the lower descending trendline, then I'll expect we'll be well-poised to break above the 2015 Nov highs, where we'll make a run from 2121-2222. But in the short term, I'm looking for a push to the 2065 area, and I don't expect to push much higher than that (for the month of March).

__Truth be told, with a 3-day holiday weekend I'm expecting a flat-to-positive dry-volume week, where traders prepare
to tune out and take a breather from the markets. Once they return for the following week 13, then we get to see how the
end of the 1st quarter will play out. I believe there will be a "supreme influence" in ensuring we close the quarter up.
I also think most of the large & small cap (window dressing) rotation may have already taken place during 7-15 March.
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Continues Rapid Growth-2016-12-d-spx-png



Something I believe is noteworthy, Friday marked the highest close for 2016 and the first time we've closed positive on the year, with a .28% gain.
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Continues Rapid Growth-2016-12-d-ytd-pp-png



For week 12's stats:
__SPX has a below baseline 41% winning ratio (overall ranks 8th best of the quarter)
__W4500 has a an above baseline 57% winning ratio (overall ranks 6th best of the quarter)
__AGG has a significant way-below baseline 25% winning ratio (overall ranks 9th best of the quarter)
__Note: The next 3 weeks for AGG are very poor...
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Continues Rapid Growth-2016-12-w-all-png

JTH-ESD (Evolving Statistical Data): ESD is currently in the C-Fund, is 6.91% MTD and 2.59% YTD.
__12 Mar 2016: ESD has followed the statistical path, moving from the S-Fund into the F-Fund for 1 day, then moving into the C-Fund, and will reside there for the remainder of the month.
__18 Mar 2016: Aside from the January drop, ESD is meeting my expectations and performing very well. From a horrible YTD low of -10.26% it has managed to work it's way into the green and is currently outperforming the GFCSI funds. There isn't much else to add, it's projected to follow April's path, unless the additional filters dictate otherwise.

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Continues Rapid Growth-2016-12-d-esd-png


JTH-ALPAFS (Advanced Point & Figure System): ALPAFS is currently in the C-Fund, is 1.52% MTD and -.75% YTD.
__12 Mar 2016: ALPAFS IFT'd from 100S to 100C, all indexes (SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX) remain bullish.
__18 Mar 2016: Still feeling the sting from the late February fake out, which caused a late March start, ALPAFS is green in all sectors, with SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX giving us a fresh set of breakouts. We have now recovered more than 75% of wave CD and are .75% within striking distance of recovering 75% of wave AD. I've learned a few things over the years from watching these charts, when they are all green, all at the same time, and for more than a few days, don't trade against it (within the TSP scale).

U.S. Manufacturing Sector Continues Rapid Growth-2016-12-d-alpafs-jpg


Looking ahead, we should also consider that April is the S&P 500's best month of the year and W4500's 2nd best. In addition, when March closes up, the winning ratio for W4500 is even stronger.
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Continues Rapid Growth-2016-12-m-vs-png


__For myself, I’m currently in the C-Fund, 2.67% MTD and -2.47% YTD
Was down at one point -12.07%, so I consider every day to be a small victory, as we strive to dig ourselves out of January's hole. I have to admit, as the end of the month gets closer, I do dread those last few days where we sometimes take a hit, but I do think it is better to start off the month already invested, so we can jump out & back in during the month. Based on my current interpretation, I believe we are operating under "risk on" conditions where this is not a time to be underinvested, or unable to invest when the next surge arrives.
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Continues Rapid Growth-2016-12-d-jth-png


Trade hard...Jason

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Updated 03-19-2016 at 12:10 PM by JTH

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

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