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Thread: Trading Places!!!

  1. Default Trading Places!!!

    Uh! I am in SHOCK!! Um the first to post HERE!!! As greeeen as I am...Sooooooo let's get it ON!!! Hit is real HARD!!! With the limits to interfunds transfers, this may be a waste. But wait!!!...then again, we may can squeeze whatever we can out of it. Where there is wiggle room, we can alway least back-test where the moves would have been most profitabe during the month, even for furture forcasting...ideas, comment, critisisms anytone????? - BIGBULLY!!


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  3. #2

    Default Re: Trading Places!!!

    BIGBULLY, its going to be real tough making money in this economic environment. Stocks do the best when corporate earnings are accelerating, the problem now is deceleration of corporate earnings. It's bear market time. The Fed can keep lowering rates but the real problems are bank liquidity and tightening lending standards putting the brakes on economic growth.
    Having said that, there are bear market rallies to play, just don't expect to be the markets for more than a week or two because they can turn back down quickly. Currently I'm 100% G fund and waiting for the panic in another week or two, then hopefully a profitable rally towards April. We'll see how it goes. Good Luck.
    Simplicity Rocks!

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  5. Default Re: Trading Places!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Here's14U View Post
    BIGBULLY, its going to be real tough making money in this economic environment. Stocks do the best when corporate earnings are accelerating, the problem now is deceleration of corporate earnings. It's bear market time. The Fed can keep lowering rates but the real problems are bank liquidity and tightening lending standards putting the brakes on economic growth.
    Having said that, there are bear market rallies to play, just don't expect to be the markets for more than a week or two because they can turn back down quickly. Currently I'm 100% G fund and waiting for the panic in another week or two, then hopefully a profitable rally towards April. We'll see how it goes. Good Luck.
    Hey Here's14U...very well put. I was about to hide out in the G myself, but was hoping to gain a few more cents on the shares. UM sitting on 2.65% for the year and hate watching my contributions getting hit so hard. I was just move here to the F, from 40 in I and 60 F, then last week proved daunting and pushed me to the F at 100. Look like the FED is printing liquidity for the banks, only to rat the consumer into more debt. There will aways be those who go after it...with either good, bad, or the most ugly credit. Must realize for now that OPEC will get alot of the newly printed green backs from the pump. WIth 100 billion liquidity injection and OPEC keeping oil inventory levels steady plays heavily on supply and demand. Let's wait and see what seasonal demand calls for and how OPEC will accommodate that. But I agree, as has been reported widely, this next week or two the markets will be very volitile, but some charge should take place somewherez between now and April...quarterly earning reports will tell. - BIGBULLY!!

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  7. #4

    Default Re: Trading Places!!!

    BIG BULLY, I'm basically an optimistic investor and always look for opportunities to invest. At this time however with all the bad economic news its very hard to be optimistic. Techinically the bull market is over IMO. The US$ is going lower. Gold is starting to go parabolic and is starting to get very dangerous. Crude is going higher unfortunately which will stop stock market rallies. Oh how I wish we could short C, S, and I shares in our TSP!

    Regarding the Fed, they are going to destroy the dollar lowering rates again, but I don't think they care. They need to get consumer and commercial borrowing going again. Unfortunately the banks are not going to lend much now as they tighten up lending standards. The Fed is in a bind and I think we will be lucky if we just have an old fashioned 2 qtr. recession. Something worse could happen with all the derivatives, hedge fund activity, foreclosures, etc. The Perfect Storm has arrived IMO. It's time to be real conservative. Good Luck!
    Last edited by Heres14U; 03-09-2008 at 11:14 PM. Reason: grammar correction
    Simplicity Rocks!

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  9. #5

    Default Re: Trading Places!!!

    Copied this post here for reference - I posted it somewhere else earlier (can't remember where I was 5 minutes ago lol)....

    Just throwing this out there since I'm new here. This is my recommended book list - Toni Turner is very easy to read and understand without putting you to sleep. LOL I haven't read the entire list yet which was passed on to me from someone else. Most are available through the library. Good luck!

    A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online by Toni Turner www.toniturner.com
    “Short Term Trading in the New Stock Market”

    A Beginner's Guide to Short Term Trading by Toni Turner (for swing and position trading which i recommend)

    How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas www.darvastrades.com (a good complimentary website to his trading style since he is not on this earth anymore to have his own official website)

    The Candlestick Course by Steven Nison www.candlecharts.com

    Trend Following by Michael Covel (some of the biggest traders in the world are Trend Followers including John Henry, Jerry Parker, Ed Seykota, The Turtles, Richard Dennis, William Eckhardt, Bill Dunn, Keith Campbell etc.) www.trendfollowing.com

    Reminisces of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre (about the legendary Jesse Livermore and how he thought about trading)

    Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager (about other traders mindsets)

    New Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager (same as above)
    ------------------------


    I agree with you Here's14U, time to be very conservative. There may also be some opportunities to roll in a few nice stocks for short/long term/swing or some bounce plays hitting 5yr or more lows. Learning a strategy that works can be very painful to the account though if one doesn't know what their doing. I'm still learning myself. And I still paper trade more than real trade. If I can't get my price oh well, it goes on paper so I can analyze it more. Just rambling... I'm a swing/position trader since I can't watch real time during the day unless I'm home.

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    Default Re: Trading Places!!!

    BooDog I've read a couple of the books you have listed. Stock Operator is excellent by Edwin Lefevre, and How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market is very interesting. Thanks for the others to keep in mind.
    Paper trading is a great idea, I commend you for that. To few investors do that to gain experience. I've been trading a long time and think this market is going to tank big time soon. Why?
    Here's a few reasons; Corporate earnings are falling, the stock market does the best when they are accelerating. Banks will be very hesitant lending money now which slows economic activity.
    Higher energy costs are like an added tax on consumers as well as higher food costs. The Nasdaq Composite has gone below January's low @ 2,200. You can't have a great rally without the Nasdaq heading up. New lows are trouncing new highs. Multiyear uptrend lines in the S&P500 have been broken signaling a bear market is most likely upon us. I could go on but those are some of the reasons to be careful investing at this time.
    I may switch into the F-fund from the G-fund as it appears ready to move up again. If the F-fund is down tomorrow I just may do that. I hate buying on up days and usually buy on a down day once I see the uptrend begin. Here's14U.
    Simplicity Rocks!

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  13. #7

    Default Re: Trading Places!!!

    I agree with your outlook. Looking at how we recovered from January's drop and even the Feb 6th drop I expect some recovery again but am looking for lower highs. Oil prices are indicating recession also imo. The fed res messing with the rates isn't going to help other than speed up inflation. Might spark a nice bounce at first though. Looking back in time this doesn't always have a positive effect... the cut in March 2000 had a direct opposite effect and took over 2 years to recover. I'm now 94% G. Slid a bit more into C, S, & I yest before noon. Finally caught that right. The way gold is going today already we could see a nice bounce but we'll see. Going to be a rough road for the next few months. Analysts are in a battle to see who will be lucky enough to call it right.

    Check this out....

    http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/08...1_id.html?.v=1
    First Gasoline ETF Comes to Market
    Wednesday February 27, 11:53 am ET
    By Index Universe

    submits: By Murray Coleman
    As the price of gasoline goes up at the pump, don't get angry. The developers of a new exchange-traded fund want you to get even.
    The United States Gasoline Fund (AMEX: UGA) opened trading Tuesday with a mandate making it the first ETF to directly track gas prices. UGA is marketed by Victoria Bay Asset Management.

    cont. on link.

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