Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

The railroad union and China COVID lock down could = Possible additional supply problems....


SevenSentinels


@SevenSentinels
·
22m
Guangzhou was a pretty decent city when my wife Julie and I spent several days there in 2006.

What a tragedy!
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Wall Street Silver
@WallStreetSilv
·
Nov 28
Guangzhou city today. If Chinese government remotely switches your health passport to code yellow, you will become homeless.

Because with yellow code on your phone, you can't go back to your apartment, stay at hotel, take any public transport...trouble to get food too ⚠️

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://twitter.com/i/status/1597238144600244225

HO....HO....HO..... We shall see how it plays out, but I'm not betting on any rally right now anyway. If the SPX setup changes then so will I.

SPX daily: The bottom Line is the SPX failed to move above the 200 day MA, and has now moved back below the 10 day MA. Waiting to see how this plays out....


Nov 29, 2022 | Market Minute
Why We Shouldn’t Bet on a Santa Claus Rally Ahead


It’s beginning to look a lot like August…

And that’s a problem for the rest of the year.

The stock market rally that started in mid-June and lasted until mid-August was powerful.

It boosted the S&P 500 by 600 points and got most of the financial world talking about the start of a new bull market.

But by that time, most of the technical indicators we follow were in extremely overbought territory…


The VIX generates a broad stock market sell signal when it closes below its lower Bollinger Band and then closes back inside the bands.

Unlike VIX buy signals (which often play out right away), VIX sell signals often take several days (or even weeks) to kick into gear.

Sometimes, it takes the VIX generating a cluster of sell signals before we get a significant move lower in the stock market.

But eventually, we get the sell-off.


On August 1, the long-term monthly chart of the S&P 500 was banging into resistance. On August 8, the Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 (BPSPX) was on the verge of a sell signal. And by August 15, VIX option prices were screaming at investors to be careful.

Now, fast forward to today…

The stock market has enjoyed a strong, two-month-long rally. The S&P 500 is up more than 500 points from its early October low.

Just about all the financial TV talking heads are bullish again and talking about a new bull market.

But once again, most of the technical indicators we follow are in extremely overbought territory. They’re warning the market is vulnerable to a decline.

For example, the BPSPX generated a sell signal last week. And now the financial sector is lagging behind the broad stock market.

VIX option prices are predicting a much higher VIX in the weeks to come – and a higher VIX usually goes along with a falling stock market.

Perhaps most concerning, though, is the VIX just generated its third sell signal in the past six weeks.

Take a look at this VIX chart…
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...s-rally-ahead/

SPX daily 12:00ish ET..... A closer look, and I don't know if Santa will come to town. My data indicated to step a side and not hold SPX long positions so that's what I did.....

Bottom Line: The SPX remains below it's 200 day MA and is currently below its 10 dma. This late in the daily cycle I will just be watching the show.

Please pass the Popcorn!

https://giphy.com/gifs/snl-saturday-...UplPi4ESnKa3W0


"""Traders should be careful in the weeks ahead…""""

"""'Most of the TV talking heads are looking forward to a Santa Claus rally. But the VIX is warning us that Santa may not show up this year.""""

Jeff Clark

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...s-rally-ahead/

SPX daily: (See my chart below) - The last two rallies were stopped at the 200 day MA) The 200 day MA remains resistance for now.

"""This bear market has seen three rallies of 11% or more in 2022. But the last two rallies eventually failed and saw the S&P 500 collapse to new lows.""""

Is an Illness Spreading in the Stock Market?

Falling Participation
This bear market has seen three rallies of 11% or more in 2022. But the last two rallies eventually failed and saw the S&P 500 collapse to new lows.

And right before each turn lower, declining participation provided advance warning… and that’s what we’re seeing yet again.

One way I measure breadth is with the McClellan Oscillator.

This figure takes the difference between advancing and declining stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and then averages the difference over a trailing period so we can see how breadth is evolving over time.

Now take a look at the chart below of the S&P 500 (top panel) and the McClellan Oscillator (bottom panel)…

The red circles show where participation is falling as the Oscillator makes lower highs.

The first two circles on the left marked the end of bear market rallies, and the S&P went on to new lows.

That’s my concern with the red circle on the right, which shows breadth deteriorating even as the S&P 500 is moving higher.

It’s not just breadth indicators that are suggesting a cautious approach…

My colleague Jeff Clark showed you yesterday how several other sell signals are piling up as we head into the new year.

While the financial talking heads seem eager for a rally, Jeff warns that traders should be cautious in the weeks ahead.

So be careful hanging around the stock market’s party for too long as signs of illness emerge, lest your portfolio catches a bug.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...-stock-market/

SPX/USD daily chart:

SevenSentinels Retweeted
Dale Pinkert
@ForexStopHunter
·
3m
#USDJPY Could rise to 144.00 on Rising Yields. Dale explained the possibility of a failing rally in #USDJPY that could extend towards 144. He remains bearish #SPX as it hasn't responded to a weaker dollar.
@TradeGateHub

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Powell triggers greed

3 bullish tidbits

1. Seasonality, bulls argue that Santa rally typically kick in over the latter few weeks of December.

2. Market breadth, as measured by 10-dma of new 52-week highs minus new 52-week lows (from a competitor firm) is on bullish breakout watch across the US indices.

3. Next couple of weeks represents the strongest corporate buyback period of the year.

Greed squeezing higher
We have not seen these levels of greed in "forever". Extreme greed next for the overshooting phase?

Bullish breadth
10 day moving average of the new 52 week highs minus 52 week lows has risen sharply over the past weeks. BofA writes: "A decisive push above the August high of 13.6 on the SPX would confirm a double bottom for this indicator and increase the likelihood that October did mark a cyclical low from the SPX."

https://themarketear.com/posts/c8sCu4PnFH

VIX daily: Watching to see if the VIX continues lower or it completes a higher low pattern. A very nice squeeze play yesterday after the FED speak...

We Won’t See a Bull Charge Anytime Soon
I would love to be able to be bullish here. It’s easier to make money in bull markets than it is in bear markets. So I’m anxious to see the bull charge, and the bear to go back into hibernation.

But that’s not happening – at least not yet.

Take a look at this long-term, monthly chart of the S&P 500…

We looked at this chart one month ago on November 4…

Back then, we noted the 9-month exponential moving average (EMA – red line) had closed below the 20-month EMA (blue line).

That sort of “bearish cross” occurred in 2001 and in 2008 (left red arrows). It preceded “waterfall declines” that sent stock prices lower.

We said this bearish cross was a big cause for concern in the months ahead unless the market rallied hard enough in November to pull the 9-month EMA back above the 20-month EMA.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...-anytime-soon/

SPX monthly: I use the 10 and 20 month MA's..... The SPX did move back above the 10 month MA which is overall Bullish if you are just using one indicator. That is why some are saying the Bull is back. A tag of the 50 month MA and then a move back above the 10 month MA is what you want to see in a Bull Market. We shall see how it all plays out in the months ahead.

Gold weekly: It looks like gold might have found support. We shall see how that plays out in the weeks ahead... Gold and GLD are both now trending above their 10 week MA's.


December 2022 Portfolio Notes
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John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

December 2022

Year-to-date market losses have retraced the frothiest segment of the recent speculative bubble, yet valuations remain at levels that we continue to associate with negative expected S&P 500 nominal total returns over the coming 10-12 year period. As of November 30, 2022, the total return of the S&P 500 is down less than 15% from the most extreme level of stock market valuations in history, based on the measures that we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns across a century of market cycles. The chart below shows the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to gross value-added, including estimated foreign revenues (MarketCap/GVA).

Finally, on the precious metals front, we continue to view the valuations of precious metals equities as reasonable, which encourages us to hold about 10% of assets in this sector in Strategic Total Return Fund. Historically, precious metals shares have performed far better in periods when bond yields are declining (in general, below their level of 6-months earlier) than when they are advancing. Likewise, downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, which often emerges during the mid-to-late stage of U.S. recessions, also tends to benefit precious metals stocks. For now, our investment outlook in this sector is clearly constructive, but not aggressive.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment...olio/pn221202/