Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

SKI 2020:

SPX and the test of the 200 dma: S/B coming this week! I remain flat stocks......


We shall see how the video below plays out this week.

Stock Market CRASH 2.0 Starts This Week!!! (SPX QQQ NDX DIA Investing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UBN5UNnYrY&t=17s

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Nov 18
Don't fight the Fed... works in both directions. Check out this great in-depth interview with Robert Dewey of Markets Policy Partners on YouTube.

David Rosenberg -The Fed is fighting a bigger foe than inflation and risk investors should beware.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGqJDiTqQIk&t=14s

XLE daily: Insiders continue to sell shares!

Moving lower this morning.....

SPX/VIX: The VIX is finally filling the gap....

XLE daily: Back above the 10 and 20 day MAs, and XLE looks like it might take another go at the highs..... Another chance for the insiders to sell some more of their shares to the MOMO crowd.... We shall see how the rest of the week plays out.

SPX daily and the 200 day MA: Waiting to see how it plays out..... The VIX is still filling the gap. Will it be a higher low or a lower low?? Anyway, getting close to the VIX 20ish level again, and I'm looking to take short positions for a trade only.

Consolidation – Update

Stocks have been consolidating for the past 9 trading days just below the 200 day MA.


Tuesday is day 28 for the daily cycle, placing stocks in the early part of their timing band for a DCL. There is a chance that stocks will again be rejected by the 200 day MA – which would then send stocks into a daily cycle decline. With a peak on day 23 – that assures us of a right translated daily cycle which indicates a high low.

However, stocks could deliver a bullish surprise and breakout above the 200 day MA. Typically breakouts that occur later in the timing band for a DCL is rarely sustained. If stocks break above the 200 day MA here, a daily cycle decline that backtests the 200 day MA would likely be needed before a trending move to be sustained.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...dation-update/

Setting up for the Santa overshoot?
A lot of the seasonality pattern has played out, but there is one last push starting in December, if we are to follow the past 20 year seasonality. We have been waiting for the overshoot. Maybe we get it and SPX attacks the 200 day and the negative trend line...

Are you...?
JPM clients responding to whether they will increase or decrease equity exposure. The question is will they do as they say, especially if FOMO kicks in?


https://themarketear.com/

XLE daily: We shall see if Santa comes to town..... If so, XLE will continue to increase..... If not, it could be one of the biggest losers....

A comment from Kaplan:

XLE has remained elevated, with this sector continuing to be strongly recommended by most analysts.


Everyone loves a winner, and energy shares are the only major sector in 2022 which has gained substantially, up 73.3% year to date and up 86.2% from its December 20, 2021 dividend-adjusted low. This has generated huge positive media coverage and all-time record inflows combined with all-time record insider selling of the components of XLE and related funds.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

Below is an example of the huge frequent bounces for QQQ during its 2000-2002 bear market when it had lost 83.6% of its value in 31 months: ( Second chart)

Kaplan
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/


Do you have any of these? I sure do..... ""The U.S. Treasury auction on Monday, November 21, 2022 (i.e., yesterday) yielded 4.689% for the 26-week U.S. Treasury for the first time since the summer of 2007"

True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian

10h
Don't look down on Treasuries: The U.S. Treasury auction on Monday, November 21, 2022 (i.e., yesterday) yielded 4.689% for the 26-week U.S. Treasury for the first time since the summer of 2007--another great time to buy short-term Treasuries and sell U.S. stocks (and U.S. houses)
https://twitter.com/truecontrarian

The gap to discuss over the long weekend
Bond volatility, MOVE, vs VIX is very wide (again)...
https://themarketear.com/

SPX daily: Testing the 200 day MA..... It will be an important test for some investors, but not for me. I remain flat the SPX..... I trade extremes and the data on my chart indicates it's time for me to step back and wait for the next buying pattern to appear. This rally has been ok, and I'm not saying it's over. However, I go to cash when the topping pattern on my chart appears. My next SPX trade will be a short position. Moving above the 200 dma in a Bull Market is Bullish, but I'm trading like we are in a Bear market. We shall see how far this run goes once it tags the 200 dma again.... I will just be watching the show no matter how it plays out as I wait for my next buy signal. Keep in mind I'm a trader not an investor.

Bottom Line: The SPX remains above it's 10 dma, and the VIX gap has been filled. Some would say that is Bullish..... and I would agree if the SPX was in a Bull Market. "Don't Fight the FED" They are not done fighting inflation as consumers are piling on debt with their credit cards again. In my opinion the housing market bust will put a real smack down on things very soon.

Cash Is King again, as two year notes are getting closer to 5%..... I have a shitload of funds in fixed income right now while I wait for the next Bear Market bottom. That is STBD and it's somewhere in the years ahead based on the data I'm using.

Happy Thanksgiving!