Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Bottom Line: Don't buy and hold.

Are Investors Staring Down Another ‘Lost Decade’ In The Stock Market?

jessefelder
September 21, 2022

As a result, investors are likely going to have to do more than just passively buy and hold a broad stock market index if they want to avoid a prolonged period of negative real returns.
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/09/...-stock-market/


It has been tough to hold on to your positions:

False Gold-Stock Panic

Sep 23, 2022
The left-for-dead gold miners' stocks are literally trading at stock-panic levels today! But they've been slammed to extreme lows in recent months on a false premise. Traders assume gold's parallel plunge must be fundamentally-righteous. But that was driven by enormous gold-futures selling on anomalous market events. As these unsustainable extremes inevitably reverse hard, the battered gold stocks will soar.

Without any doubt, the most-contrarian sector in the markets today is the despised gold stocks. They've been long-forgotten by mainstream traders, and they're pretty loathed even by contrarians who ought to like buying low. It's hard to imagine anything more deeply-out-of-favor than the gold miners, as there is virtually zero interest in them. That has left them languishing at exceedingly-oversold stock-panic levels.

Sep 23, False Gold-Stock Panic Adam Hamilton 321gold ...inc ...s

GDX weekly Chart: The trend remains down.

GDXJ/JNUG daily: A move below the lower BB, this late in the daily cycle, is usually good for a bounce.

Long GDXJ for a trade..... We shall see how it plays out, after the huge move up by the dollar!

The 9/24/22 Weekend Report Preview

likesmoneystudies

Sep 24

The Dollar

The Fed decision to raise rates caused the dollar to break out to a 20 year high.

Friday was day 30 for the dollar’s daily cycle. The new high on day 30 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. 30 days also places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. The dollar will need to form a swing high and break below the accelerated (dashed) trend line to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a strong daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/

Long some SSO

SPX - time for mean reversion agony

This is how it is supposed to feel; the world about to implode. SPX is down at June lows, currently putting in a hammer candle. We need a confirmation if this is to become a bounce, but don't forget that the SPX has traded stuck in a range for months. As we pointed out in our thematic email over the weekend, there is a lot of fear everywhere (more here). Dare to buy the fear?
https://themarketear.com/posts/cfNYysJw8T

SPX daily: The June low marker continues to hold for now..... Adding a few more share of SSO. We shall see how we close!

Bottom Line: The trend remains down....

SPX daily: Today the SPX got a back test of the low marker, and an undercut.

Long SSO and I added some more shares. No TSP moves until Monday, but I will place a ST trade next week. We shall see if the pattern plays out and we get the bounce next week.


Bottom Line: The trend remains down and Bear Market rules remain in play.

SPX weekly: We shall see if the 200 week MA holds and we get a bounce.....

Long SSO for a trade only.....

Bottom Line: The trend remains down and Bear Market rules are still in play.

SPX daily: The odds continue to increase that we are close to a ST bounce.



https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Quarterly expiration completed: We shall see how next week plays out. I will be looking to make a possible ST TSP move.....

https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/op...ation-calendar

SPX/SSO 2 hour chart: Remains in a downtrend...... Holding over the weekend... Another lower low.....

SPX daily after the close today, and the completion of Quarterly Expiration:

A lower low...... Many traders don't like holding over the weekend. I normally don't , but I decided to hold my current positions.

COT GOLD/SP mini and NQ 100/two year notes: I'm trading with the commercials right now. We shall see if we get the bounce..... If not I will get stopped out.


Lots of big money buying two year notes as indicated on the COT report below. Returns moving over 4% and could move higher.

September 20th

Prepare to purchase 26-week and Two year U.S. Treasuries at next Monday's auctions.


Tuesday's intraday high yields for U.S. Treasuries were as follows: 26-week 3.950%; 52-week 4.076%; 2-year 3.992%; 3-year 3.951%. These are compelling 15-year highs so I will be doing twice my usual allocation at Monday's auctions for the 26-week and 2-year U.S. Treasuries.

Kaplan


https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

Current Commitments of Traders Charts