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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #3433

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Bear Markets - What do the last 85 years tell us?


    Bernstein looks back to European Markets in 1970s (as well as the US back to 1937) to draw key insights about market behaviour relative to the changing macro forces of inflation, yields and growth. We choose the bear market of the 1970s as it is considered representative of the current situation. There were 2 bear market rallies back then, but the final recovery kicked off only after a sustained period of downward trending inflation i.e., when the market had enough confidence in the improving macro environment. The market recovery lagged the peak inflation by 3-4 months in the 1970s. Zooming in on the current situation, the outlook around inflation is still uncertain. While there are some signs of easing (e.g. supply chain pressure, some commodity prices), the energy crisis gives upside risk to the inflation situation in Europe. We have identified 8 bear markets of more than -20% drop in Europe prior to 2022. The average duration (peak to trough) for such bear markets is around 11 months and the average peak to trough drop has been -37.5%. The peak to trough observed from January 5, 2022 has only been -15.9% so far. Learning from the past (1970s), it would be early to call a market recovery yet.
    https://themarketear.com/posts/ciq0DnB6bJ
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #3434

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GOLD/IAU/GLD: I bet lots of stops were hit today! We shall see if gold can close back above the 1675ish area before the close....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #3435

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: Getting closer to filling the gap @ 3800ish as we get deeper into this cycle. The last bottom did undercut the 10 dma a couple of times before it took off. We shall see if we fill the gaps, or maybe make a higher low, or how about a lower low. We will just have to wait and see how this plays out as investors try to better position their accounts. Bear Markets are not easy to trade and cash is KING! Another rough week for investors! Waiting to take a ST SSO trade......
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    Last edited by robo; 09-16-2022 at 08:59 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #3436

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Looking for a better setup to take a ST long trade. If you just have to be in this market, trade it, don't buy and hold it. I'm going to stay very nimble when placing all of my trades and moves in the months ahead.


    Put love is back
    The crowd continues doing what they do best: hating puts at local market highs, and loving puts at local market lows. Is this time different?

    Finally some fear
    We haven't seen this much fear in a while. Getting closer to a bounce?
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    Last edited by robo; 09-16-2022 at 01:41 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #3437

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Thoughts on expiration
    Spotgamma explains some of the expiration dynamics: "...we are now back to a put-weighted expiration, and in these environments we often see lows come on the Monday after OPEX (i.e. 9/19). Recall that markets drove lower into both March & June quarterly expirations. You can see in the chart below a jump after June OPEX – and also gaps in the market tied to July & August expiration. Whats interesting here is that July was a put-weighted expiration (market gap up) & August was call-weighted (market gap down)." They also note that some 20% of total SPX put positions (delta weighted) are expiring..but don't forget FOMC is around the corner...

    Placing the buy order at SPX 3021
    From the one and only Hartnett, the most accurate of strategists out there... Nothing new really, but a quick reminder from his latest note: "...average peak to trough decline 37.3%, average duration 289 days; history no guide to future but history says bear market ends Oct 19th 2022 (35th anniversary Black Monday) with S&P 500 at 3020 (note Nasdaq already down -29%)"
    https://themarketear.com/posts/cMAREryAt0
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #3438

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX monthly: If you look at these historical Bear Market patterns for the SPX, and the 200 month MA's, you get a better idea of just how far above the mean the last Bull market was. If this pattern holds, then we are still a long way to getting back close to any type of normal valuations and the 200 month MA. Now, I don't know how this will play out. It's just not normal to be this stretched above the 200 month MA. It's been six months since the SPX went below its 10 month MA and give me a sell signal. That doesn't mean I'm not short-term trading the rips and dips. Bear Markets have some excellent rips to trade, but one has to remember that those gains will be given back.

    Bottom Line: The SPX remains in a downtrend, and the gap between the 10 month and the 200 month MA's still remains very stretched. Well, that is if you track patterns, and I do. So unless it's different this time, and it "COULD BE" - the SPX will continue to move down and correct until it is much closer to the mean.

    I continue to trade this like the SPX is in a Bear Market until the data changes. So in my opinion, stay nimble because the SPX remains in a downtrend far above the mean of its 200 month MA.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #3439

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX monthly:
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #3440

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Undercut In Play – Update

    Stocks undercut the day 54 on Friday.

    While stocks undercut the day 54 low on Friday, they also formed a bullish reversal. The bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 3880.95 will form a daily swing low. Then a close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 62 as the DCL. Stocks are still in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until the can close above the upper daily cycle band.

    If day 62 is the DCL, then stocks will be beginning the 2nd daily cycle for the intermediate cycle. I have some concerns once stocks confirm the new daily cycle, which I discuss in the Weekend Report.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...n-play-update/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #3441

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: I still have some concerns too..... Day 4 since the SPX moved below it's 10 dma..... Well, we did get the bounce based on the pattern, but now what? We shall see how the lower BB tag plays out, and if the pattern is still in play as it indicates. The SPX could still move lower. I'm trading the MA's and cycle data, not the pattern. However, the patterns are warning signals just like sentiment data many like to use. The pattern does indicate the odds for another bounce is getting close, and the cycle data supports it. Let us not forget those lower gaps. Will they fill? They could, so one has to be careful here. LOL..... we shall see how it all plays out, and I will be trading SSO again once I like the setup. I will not be making many TSP moves as I wait for all this to play out. The Fed remains with it's foot on the gas pedal for additional rate increases and the market/investors are running for safety. If you are buying CD's or 2 year notes look for 4% rates soon.... That is what many investors are doing. If you are down big in TSP there could be some nice rips as Bear Markets are known for this, but it's impossible to trade using a TSP account with only two moves a month. TSP is great in a Bull Market, but in a Bear Market one needs to be very careful and spend time in the G Fund while you wait for the next Bull to show up. It takes rare extremes before Bear Markets end.
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    Last edited by robo; 09-17-2022 at 09:06 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #3442

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Bear Market trades: Base hits sounds good to me....

    Breaking the PPT intervention
    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #3443

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels
    ·
    Sep 16
    September 8, 2022

    We Have Opened Our Latest Weekly Article To Any Who Wish To Understand What The Recent NYMO Low < -101 Is Telling Serious Traders:

    The REST of the Story- When NYMO Falls Below -100
    September 3, 2022

    Our story today may not be “The Godfather.” But it’s one that every serious trader might find at least as compelling.
    The story begins with the 1929 stock market crash and the Primary Bear Market that followed:

    That pattern over the last century is clear, and to quote Jesse Livermore again:
    “What happens today has happened before and will happen again.”

    https://sevensentinels.com/the-rest-...lls-below-100/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #3444

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Depending on who you ask the opinions will vary



    "We should test the lows later this year"

    "There are many reasons to believe that we will revisit the lows later this autumn. Overall tactical & macro backdrop just do not add up to the ultimate bottom. We can bounce small this week - we list some observations on why this is at the end of this email - but overall medium term view is still bearish.""

    "This is not a bottom"

    BofA private client equity holdings at 63% of AUM. Should be much lower for a...

    https://www.zerohedge.com/premium?ut...e_website_link
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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