Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Thursday was day 52, pacing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Since August of 2014 close to 80% of the daily cycles bottomed at or before day 52.

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likesmoneystudies

Sep 1


Thursday was day 52, pacing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Since August of 2014 close to 80% of the daily cycles bottomed at or before day 52.


Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Thursday, easing the parameters for forming a swing low. Stocks have retraced to the 50 % fib level and breached the daily cycle trend line. So if stocks form a swing low, the odds are good that will mark the DCL. A low risk entry can be taken on a swing low, using Thursday's low as the stop.

BPSPX daily: This daily pattern indicates odds still favor more downside in the weeks ahead. However, other indicators gives odds for a ST bounce before the BPSPX pattern completes. We shall see how it plays out. I tried to play the short-term bounce using TSP funds, but so far a losing trade. I kept a 10% position in the S Fund for a ST trade, based on the odds for a ST bounce. Less trading these days because of the constant whipsaws. So while I wait for a confirmed weekly buy signal, I have been going to the range more often, and shooting my Volquartsen Black Mamba.

Day 11 since the sell signal for the SPX..... You can see on the chart below why I respect the BPSPX daily pattern.

Volquartsen Black Mamba

https://volquartsen.com/inventory_configurations/3823

We shall see how it plays out!

Daily Cycle Update

likesmoneystudies

Sep 8
Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 54. That places them deep in their timing band for a DCL.

Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday then closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday to signal the new daily cycle. I would like to see a close above the 50 day MA before we day 54 as the daily cycle low. Stocks should then go on to break above the declining trend line as they rally out of the DCL. Stocks are currently in daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...-cycle-update/

SPX daily: Looks like the bounce is in play..... Now will it have some legs?

BPSPX daily: Hmmmmm...... Waiting to see how this plays out. I still have a 10% position in play (S Fund) , but out of moves. LOL..... That might be a good thing. I'm trading this like we are in a Bear Market NOT a BULL Market so I'm using the ST daily data for trading and NOT the weekly for the SPX. I would be using the weekly too for MT positions IF I thought we were in a BULL Market. We still have two gaps left behind.... It's looking like the might not fill just yet.....

SPX daily: So we got the daily buy signal. Now what? If you are ST trading no problem as you can use stops, but investors are still wondering how this will play out. The insiders continue to sell as the Fed keeps its foot on the rate hike gas pedal..... I say we shall see....

I'm flat stocks right now except for 5% in the S Fund.

We did get the bounce: We shall see if it has legs....

Pouncing on bouncing (part II)

We are definitely still in bounce mode. Once again, the crowd got too bearish at the bottom. The big question now is if this bounce will morph into a proper squeeze like the one we saw this summer. Our feeling right now is that it won't and that we would want to dance very close to the exit door for now, but are, as always, open to re-evaluate in real time. Earlier this week we focused on CTAs, the massive put buying, gamma and the technical backdrop. Let's examine the "new" latest data-points on the bounce.

SPX monthly: The SPX monthly remains very stretched above the 200 month mean, and at some point we will get a 4 year cycle low. Month 6 since the the SPX moved below its 10 month MA . Plenty of things for investors to be concerned about. I remain in the Bear Market Trading camp. That doesn't mean I don't go long. I just take less risk since I'm counter-trend trading.

GDX daily: Well, the DCL and the daily buy signal are in play..... We shall see how it plays out and if the weekly can show us the money too!

GDX weekly: Next week will be week 22 since moving below the 10 week MA.

GDX weekly gaps: