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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #3385

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDXJ daily: Remains above the 10 dma...... They tend to lead...... So is this going to be a breakout, or just another fakeout? Waiting on the Fed.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #3386

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Miner cycle thoughts:

    Miner Risk for Major Opportunity

    The Miners were rejected by the 10 day MA on Friday. They went on to undercut the day 43 low on Monday to extend its daily cycle decline.

    Monday was day 50 for the daily Miner cycle, making it severely overdue for a daily cycle low. After undercutting the low, the Miners could have easily went on to a 5 to 7 day bloodbath phase. But instead, they printed a bullish inside candle. That eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 25.42 will form a swing low, Then a close above the declining 10 day MA will have us label day 50 as the DCL.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...r-opportunity/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #3387

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXX/$VIX/$BPSPX/SPX/Cycles: Four indicators that has me looking to buy some SDS...

    Bottom Line: Not a time to be all in based on these indicators. Unless, it's different this time, and that is always possible! I'm mainly trading the gold miners right now.

    The four indicators I'm watching - Watching $BPSPX ( high) and the $VIX data ( below 20ish) as the VXX compression continues. Also, we be due a move down into the DCL. The chart pattern indicates lots of risk right now. I have NO IDEA how this will play out, but the odds of a pullback are high right now. All my trades are based on a set of odds..... I also call it Risk Management!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #3388

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A closer look at $BPSPX ( high) and the $VIX data ( below 20.00ish)
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #3389

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VVIX knew...but does it know?
    VVIX stopped crashing a little while ago. VIX on the other hand has been busy closing the gap vs VVIX. Note the divergence between these two over the past week. VVIX ain't buying the latest VIX move lower...
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #3390

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX/VIX daily:

    You buy protection when you can...not when you must

    Regular readers of TME are familiar with the above. Given the most recent "reset" of cross asset vols, but especially in equities land, the prudent investor should be looking at hedges/long volatility trades/pure speculation. To play pure VIX, we would look at relatively short dated VIX call spreads. We have Jackson Hole coming up, September is around the corner and is a "problematic" month. It is all about Fed, but will they land this the soft or the hard way? One thing is sure, you do not buy a house insurance after it has started burning, irrespective if it is going to burn or not....A thread on volatility and protection:
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #3391

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    New Hussman Commentary today: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220815/

    Wall Street appears convinced that the half-point retreat from the highest core inflation in 40 years, currently at 5.9%, will encourage the Fed to “pivot” to lower rates in no time. Yet when the Federal Funds rate has been lower than core inflation, with core inflation above even 2.5%, the Fed has never shifted to easing unless recession has pushed the unemployment rate toward 6% or higher. It’s also worth noting that the only bear market low in history that occurred in the midst of a Fed tightening cycle was in 1987, at an S&P 500 forward operating P/E of less than 10, and a price/revenue multiple less than a quarter of today’s level.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #3392

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX/BPSPX daily warning pattern: The pattern indicates more downside ahead, but we could be getting closer to a short-term bounce. We shall see how it plays out. I haven't been posting much lately as my focus has been trading other sectors. As we all know you CAN NOT short-term trade using TSP, and that is what I'm currently doing.

    SPX things to watch - 3 gaps left behind, we are getting deeper into the daily cycle, we are getting over sold, and we be heading into September.

    Bottom Line: Day 8 since moving below the 10 dma which is a sell signal for me. However, I haven't been trading stocks much.... Waiting to see how this pattern plays, and will probably make a ST counter-trend move into stocks in the weeks ahead. Why I'm I calling it a counter-trend trade? Because we are in a Bear Market based on my data.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #3393

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX/BPSPX daily:

    Some good advice from another forum:
    Bocomo
    Wednesday 31st of August 2022 07:38:02 AM
    snippet 1 As my friend Lee Adler has said: "There's no such thing as support in a bear market." I recommend taking those words to heart.

    snippet 2 Countertrend trading in most markets is only recommended for experienced and highly nimble traders, and this becomes doubly true during bear markets, because bear markets are completely unforgiving of poorly-timed longs. It helps to remember that the goal of the market now is to separate longs from their money -- and then, once you've come to terms with that, ask yourself if you want to throw your lot in with them by trying to beat the primary trend for a few quick short-term scores.

    snippet 3 Please don't recognize the bear and then get wiped out by trying to be a bull.
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    Last edited by robo; 08-31-2022 at 08:49 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #3394

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX - approaching big levels
    We outlined our most bearish market logic on Aug 16 in our post "Are we there yet? Yeah...." Since then the SPX has fallen from 4300 to currently trade around 3930. Needless to say, that trade has played out well and is not attractive at these levels.

    3900 is a very big support for the SPX, followed by the 3800 and then the June lows. Resistance is at 4k, and then the 4100. We are now well below the 200 day and have closed below the 50 day three days in a row. Time to easy some of the bearish logic soon from a short term trading view....
    https://themarketear.com/
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    Last edited by robo; 09-01-2022 at 12:34 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #3395

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: As I pointed out above....The SPX is getting deeper into this daily cycle and very oversold. Odds for a ST bounce continues to increase.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #3396

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX and the 200 day moving average - haven't seen this in a while
    SPX has spent a lot of days below the 200 day moving average. Go figure when the last time was...and what this means.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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