So when will the Fed start cutting rates again? LOL.... "Recession risks have started to trump the inflation narrative"
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 24
Memo to the uninitiated: it is the change in jobless claims and not the level that presage the recession call -- and the move off the cycle trough says we're more than 80% of the way towards heading there.
#RosenbergResearch #Economy
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 24
Copper below $4 per pound, down over 24% from the highs (bear market), and down to a 16-month low tells me that “recession” risks have overtaken “inflation” risks.
#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 23
The S&P Global mfg PMI dove to 52.4 in June from 57.0 & services were even weaker. Recession risks have started to trump the inflation narrative -- the stock market figured it out first & now the bond market is catching up. The Fed has one more hike left in July & then it’s over. https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
"I’ve covered the #markets and the #economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people—or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers—were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent."
What to expect from a recession 'everyone' sees coming: Morning Brief
Recessions seems to be the talk of the town these days. So: if "everyone" knows a recession is coming, does that change what the
What to expect from a recession 'everyone' sees coming: Morning Brief
Andy Serwer with Dylan Croll
Sat, June 25, 2022, 5:00 AM·6 min read
Has sell the rip transformed into a FOMO chase? Friday was a very powerful day and most that "planned" to buy "cheap" stuff missed buying post the first move higher on June 21. Expecting things to come down again, they were shocked by Friday's px action. The psychological set up here is very powerful. Goldman's Flood sums it up well: "Today felt like a potential pivot point with bid getting healthier as we finally saw L/Os come in and passively buy (they have been net sellers on every single trading session since 6/7). FOMO is real at the moment (MFs currently sitting on well over $200b in cash right now and buying will intensify on moves higher). This community also took advantage (as buyers) of the abundance of liquidity on the closing bell today.... Today is not an all clear but I would certainly be more patient selling this pop as it was highest quality rally I have seen in over a month". Don't forget there is some month end re balancing stuff to be executed (approx $33bn says GS), as well as other supportive flow (here).
Jesse Felder
@jessefelder
·
21h
"Today I am starting to behave aggressively. Everything we deal in is significantly cheaper than it was six or 12 months ago." -
@HowardMarksBook
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
No recession - what is the trade?
What if the recession doesn't materialise? JPM writes: "...if a recession does not materialize (as is our base case), then the market will see a rotation out of defensives and into oversold higher beta and smaller cap market segments".
The investment bank recommends buying the Russell 2000 3M 105-115% call spreads for around 2.65% of notional indicatively. That gives you a 4x max pay out ratio. Russell volatility isn't overly rich on a relative basis.
Do you subscribe to sentimentrader? Looks like gold miner sentiment is in the toilet. Time to buy?
I no longer subscribe to Sentiment Trader. The last two years of rare extremes has caused me to move on from using sentiment for trading. I still track it, but use cycles more now.
GDX daily: Remains on a sell signal. I have been mainly day-trading the miners, and I'm still holding a small position overnight..... No leverage. I only use JNUG/NUGT for daytrading, and close out those positions daily.
Last edited by robo; 07-26-2022 at 07:44 PM.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
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