Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Stocks broke the previous daily cycle low on Monday.

Breaking below the previous DCL forms a failed daily cycle and extends the intermediate (weekly) cycle decline. At 15 days, stocks could trend lower for another 15 - 25 days before printing their DCL. Sentiment is very bearish and a technical level has been broken which would align with stocks declining for another 3 - 5 weeks.

The previous daily cycle ran long, so we could see a shortened daily cycle form here, which would balance out the cycle counts. Stocks are overdue for both a weekly and yearly cycle low. So if this undercut reverses quickly and closes above 3943.32, it could mark the daily, weekly and yearly cycle low.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...daily-cycle-4/

Sometimes it just feels that way!

Stocks will never go up again in our lifetime

Yes, we are as bearish as you and do believe stocks will set new significant lows. However, some of the short-term sentiment indicators we are looking at are starting to indicate "too much too fast" and we wanted to examine why stocks could have a small bounce.
https://themarketear.com/

I now have my biggest trade of the year in play...... So far it remains a loser, but still up YTD.

Long- GDXJ, EQX, AGQ, TKC, TLT, and VXF.

Day trading - JNUG, long @ $43.50.....

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
9h
I keep getting asked when I will finally turn bullish. Answer -- the day I flip my charts upside down.

#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 13
We've had 8% inflation before. Been a while, but we've had it. What we've never had before was the Fed hiking rates into an official bear market. Brand spanking new. More downside coming.

#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 13
Down 4% on a day with no new news. Incredible. What will tomorrow bring? I sense margin calls.

#RosenbergResearch #Markets
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 13
I don't know about anybody else, but this looks like a prelude to a crash. Get out of Dodge if you haven't already done so. It's not too late.

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en

Miners Form Failed Daily Cycle

likesmoneystudies

Jun 14

The Miners broke below the previous daily cycle low on Tuesday.

Breaking below the previous daily cycle low forms a failed daily cycle and extends the intermediate cycle decline. There are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators that often herald the cycle low. And with the Miners being in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low, the odds are good that once the DCL forms it will mark the ICL as well.

We shall see! I'm long the gold miners....


FOMC Day: The Low For Gold?

24. For many years, I’ve been adamant that the “big show” for gold stocks begins only after not just one aggressive series of Fed hikes, but numerous bouts of them, and only when it becomes obvious that the hikes are failing to tame inflation. A mini version of the “big show” lies directly ahead, and while the target is not the moon, a very nice rally… is coming soon!

Thanks!

Cheers
st
Jun 7, 2022 FOMC Day: The Low For Gold? Stewart Thomson 321gold ...inc ...s

Waiting on the Fed......

Gold update still bullish


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBrow_Vbf0c&t=1s

Mark Hulbert
With the S&P 500 now in a bear market, despair and capitulation are the next stages of investors’ grief
Published: June 13, 2022 at 4:01 p.m. ET
By Mark Hulbert
comments
At the bear market’s final low, investors will no longer trust rallies. That’s the time to get bullish

The S&P 500 SPX, +1.46% officially entered a bear market on June 13, down more than 20% from its January 2022 high. While there’s no way of knowing how much further stocks will fall until their final bottom, odds are good that when that happens you won’t the feel much worse about the stock market’s prospects than you do already.

That’s the conclusion I reached upon analyzing sentiment in past bear markets. I found that the biggest drop in investor mood tends to occur earlier rather than later in bear markets. At the point when the market slips below the 20% loss threshold, investor sentiment is already close to being as pessimistic as it will be at the bear market’s final low..

This doesn’t mean the bear market is over. But crossing the 20% loss threshold does mean we have progressed further along the five stages of bear-market grief, about which I wrote a month ago.

A good illustration comes from three different sentiment surveys during the 2007-2009 bear market. When that bear market first broached the 20% loss threshold in July 2008, market sentiment was nearly as pessimistic as it was at the final bottom in March 2009, when the S&P was 57% lower than where it stood at its October 2007 bull market high. Here are the specifics:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wi...ef-11655150513

SPY daily: A gap down and the back test of the low marker ( @ 370.59 ) again this morning. It looks like an undercut and a lower low. We shall see how we close.

This Move Creates Extreme Conditions and Opportunities
Jeff Clark | Jun 16, 2022 | Market Minute | 2 min read
The Volatility Index (VIX) just generated a new stock market buy signal.

This is the fourth buy signal of 2022. And if this one plays out like the previous three, then stocks should be higher in the weeks ahead.

Take a look at this chart of the VIX along with its Bollinger Bands…
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...opportunities/

THE buy signal?
BofA's bull and bear indicator is currently at 0. This is probably the slowest of all indicators among investment banks. Track record when this hits zero is rather strong (unless double dip recession or systemic event). Last time we hit zero was in Aug’02, Jul’08, Sep’11, Sep’15, Jan’16, Mar’20 according to BofA.

GDX weekly: A tag and a bounce off the 200 week MA. A possible ICL..... GDX needs to get back above the 10 and 50 week MA before a new trend is confirmed.