Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 10
Some nifty math. When you strip out of the CPI all the items that are linked to energy (air fares, moving/freight, rental cars, delivery services, new and used vehicles), the core was +0.36% and the YoY steadied near 4%. The truth beneath the veneer.

#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 10
The Bank of Canada's 2022 Financial System Review is replete with evidence of a gigantic Canadian housing and mortgage debt bubble. And yet, Tiff Macklem is pledging to raise rates aggressively. Zero chance this ends well.

#RosenbergResearch
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Jun 10
Make a new plan, Stan... just set yourself free. Tip of the hat to Druckenmiller: "I think it's highly highly probable that the bear market has a ways to run." Not one "highly" -- but two!

#RosenbergResearch
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en



SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
Jun 2
Stocks suck.

Bonds are terrible.

So it makes sense that the general U.S. consumer has never been more pessimistic about prospects for the two markets.

The GS "Sentiment Indicator" does NOT scream BUY
Very different reading vs when we touched the lows in May. Just saying...this might not be the bottom you waited years to buy...
https://themarketear.com/

VXF monthly and weekly: ( S fund) Yes, it was very stretched above the 200 week MA.

Face The Nation
@FaceTheNation
·
3h
Allianz Chief Economic Adviser El-Erian says the “darkest” scenario is if inflation continues and we end up in a recession, “That will be tragic if that were to happen because, again, it is the most vulnerable segment of the population that gets hit hard.”
https://twitter.com/elerianm


Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
11h
The global #economy/markets' focus this week is the #Fed's policy meeting
Its importance has been accentuated by last week's bad #inflation surprises, guaranteeing a 50 bps hike, fueling talk of 75, and adding to worries about recession risk
None of this is comforting for markets



Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
Jun 11
.
@WSJ
:"Gasoline Prices Reach[ing] $5 a Gallon Nationwide for the First Time"
This is a leading example of the twin hit to households/economy of high #inflation:
Directly via the higher price of goods/services and indirectly by destroying/redirecting demand
https://wsj.com/articles/gasoline-pr...d=hp_lead_pos1



Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
Jun 11
.
@WSJ
:"Gasoline Prices Reach[ing] $5 a Gallon Nationwide for the First Time"
This is a leading example of the twin hit to households/economy of high #inflation:
Directly via the higher price of goods/services and indirectly by destroying/redirecting demand
https://wsj.com/articles/gasoline-pr...d=hp_lead_pos1



Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm
·
Jun 10
One of the clips from this morning's interaction on
@SquawkCNBC
with
@BeckyQuick
.

Thank you Becky for the conversation.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=j1yH5LZQyeM

@cnbc
#economy #markets #inflation #fed #federalreserve #centralbanks #EconTwitter
youtube.com
Fed Chair Powell is 'losing total control' of inflation narrative,...
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queen’s College, Cambridge, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to react to May's higher-

SPY/VXF weekly data: ( C Fund/S Fund) Still looking for an ICL/YCL to trade. Cycle lows haven't been easy to spot.....

VXF weekly: Next week will be week 30 since the confirmed sell signal for VXF. A MT confirmed sell signal is move below the 20 wma on a weekly closing price. It still hasn't closed above the 20 week ma in 29 weeks. I have been whipsawed a few times....

June Options Expiration Calendar: We shall see how the rest of June plays out!

We have Options stop trading on the 17th and the Quarterly Expiration on the 30th.

https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/op...ation-calendar


SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
1h
June 12, 2022, 5:15 PM

A Sleeping Giant Awakens & His Name Is PANIC
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

$CPCE monthly: We shall see how all of this plays out the rest of June. A gap down for the SPY futures at the open, as was expected.



SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
5h
Panic Comes at the BOTTOM Of Each Intermediate Term Cycle.

We are barely BEGINNING that stage with

Friday's One Day

CPC of 1.28 &
CPCE of 0.89

The Real PANIC Emerges This Week

See this week's article on Sludin?jumi - SS.COM

Sleeping Giant Awakens & His Name Is PANIC
Quote Tweet
Daniel
@exposurerisk
· 18h
6) One can understand a lack of fear in a sharp rally but a lack of fear in today's drop? The same thing happened in July 2008 before the plunge. And there you go, it doesn't matter the extremes reached but the response to a move especially when it is bizarre. Never boring.⚠️



SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
8h
...2/2


This week's article entitled "A Sleeping Giant Awakens, and His Name Is PANIC.."

Is ready and will be available when we come back online.

Serious Traders Take Note- This is the stuff of which trading careers are made when you "get it right."

Good Trading, All! D
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
8h

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...%5EauthorSince we were down for maintenance Friday, we had our tech team take the opportunity to do a complete upgrade to speed up response times and beef up security.

They did so, and we are just waiting for Blue Host to reactivate website within 24 hours.

Meantime... 1/2

SPX daily: "A close below 3850 and things risk getting ugly." The futures are under 3850 - We shall see how it plays out next week!

SPX - catching falling knives
On May 30, in our thematic email, "You sell here if you think this is a "normal" bear market squeeze" (subs only, sign up here), we suggested that the back then violent bear market was to be faded and sold. We wrote: "Getting excited about SPX after it has rallied almost 11% from recent lows is probably a late trade...It is soon time to fade if you dared to buy it." Equities managed trading around the 4150 level for some 10 sessions until it all decided "collapsing" over the past two sessions. Since then we are down +250 points. Let's see how this plays out from here, but 3900/3850 is the make or break area, and we must admit this latest bear feels somewhat different. A close below 3850 and things risk getting ugly. Catching falling knives is a painful strategy.
https://themarketear.com/

SPX 2 hour: The futures have already undercut the 3810.32 low marker. Waiting to see how we close today!

VXF weekly: ( S Fund) VXF has back tested and held ( weekly closing price) above the 200 week MA for 5 weeks so far. Will it make it 6 weeks? We shall see..... A gap down and an undercut to start the week out.