Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Originally Posted by rangerray

My original question was mainly geared towards the mechanics of making the trade with 100% of the account, as in, can it be done smoothly and quickly. I've only transferred small amounts in my Etrade account and those trades happen very quickly. I've never made a trade outside of the TSP that might include my whole account. My question wasn't to imply that moving 100% of one's account was good or bad, but lots of folks move their entire accounts, including me, 100% in and out of the various funds through the year. I just wanted to know how cumbersome it was to move large amounts.

Ok Brother..... I was just passing on some hard lessons I learned when I first went to unlimited moves using my TSP funds.


Bottom line: Very easy to move funds at Vanguard or Ameritrade. I prefer Ameritrade for short term trading, and Vanguard for position trading. Especially if I’m using a weekly chart after an ICL. I mainly trade VTI and the gold miners at Vanguard. GDXJ, EQX, VTI, and sometimes VXF.

What I really like about Ameritrade is they have someone answering calls 7 days a week 24 hours a day.

I'm gonna follow you on the EQX, last time worked well.

Originally Posted by Babkock

I'm gonna follow you on the EQX, last time worked well.

Good luck to both of us...... I bought GDXJ and EQX after the morning beat down. I will post some charts later. Currently using an IPad.....

Originally Posted by Babkock

I'm gonna follow you on the EQX, last time worked well.

Note that GDXJ and EQX tend to move together. Since GDXJ is an index with many companies it has a much lower Risk when trading. When I'm trading the gold miners they are small positions due to huge swings. Trading this sector is NOT easy so I use Risk Management. "Smaller bites and not big moves."

A move below the 3 ema and the 10 sma on the daily is a go to cash position when I'm trend-trading. However, I'm trading the oversold tag of the lower BB on this trade. We shall see how it plays out. I like to trade GDXJ under $40.00ish and sometimes I buy EQX too. EQX was down around (-6%) this morning so I bought some shares. We shall see if we bounce or the miners continue lower. Unlike many others I HAVE NO IDEA what the miners will do next, and that is why I keep it small until a confirmed trend is in play.

As you can see I was buying GDXJ at the same time. I bought several small tranches. Why not buy one big tranche? Because I don't know how it will play out so I scale in even during ST trades. To me there is NO SUCH THING as missing out. FOMO......something that just doesn't matter to me.

01/25/2022 09:40:51 Bought 20 GDXJ @ 39.4499

01/25/2022 09:44:22 Bought 100 EQX @ 6.495

01/25/2022 10:56:57 Bought 100 EQX @ 6.515

01/25/2022 11:44:19 Bought 75 EQX @ 6.4942



The insiders have been selling EQX lately and that is NOT a good thing. Keeping my eye on that as that is NOT what we want to see when buying a stock. I don't plan on holding this very long as it is a ST trade only.


https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/eqx/insider-trading

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/CV...nsider-trades/

EQX closed at $6.57 so up a few bucks on this trade. I bought around 500 shares..... Like I said I'm playing small ball right now..... Base hits are fine.....

This is a tough market to trade in right now - Danger will Robertson!


I agree with Gary on this one! Stay away from leverage right now, and keep the positions smaller....
Gold update and leverage for 2022

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremiu...-for-2022.html

Gold daily cycle:

Gold Uptrend

Prior to printing the late December DCL, gold was in a pattern of printing lows below the lower daily cycle band. That is characteristic of a daily downtrend. Since the late December low that pattern has changed. Gold is now forming highs above the upper daily cycle band and lows are now forming above the lower daily cycle band. This is characteristic of gold being in a daily uptrend. Gold will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Oversoooold
RSI on NASDAQ and SPX is in extreme territory, but oversold can stay oversold for long. The most "disturbing" fact is that everybody still talks about when to buy the dip...

Gold volatility - the forgotten convexity trade?
It is hard to find superlatives for the recent move higher in equity volatility. Sure, equities are all over the place as people suddenly woke up to the Fed "dilemma", rates moving, Russia possibly invading etc, but does that justify gold continuing to be boring? Gold volatility is up small over past sessions, but the gap vs VIX is now beyond huge.
https://themarketear.com/

The open looks good so far with a nice gap up!

SPY daily (C Fund): Maybe the Buyers can move the SPY back above the 200 sma on the daily. Looks like a green open....

VXF daily ( S Fund): From the high in November down over (-20%)

VTI daiy ( The total stock market - A mix of the C and S funds)

We wait for an ICL as all 3 remain below their 200 sma's on the daily. Also called the 200 dma....

Maybe we will bottom and get an ICL soon. If so that COULD mean we will start a nice trending move for several weeks. However, this year could be full of huge swings in both directions.... I will be playing small ball! Still, I wait for an ICL and a confirmed buy signal. I don't care about the first 10% or the the last 10% of the move. I will take THE MIDDLE with the BEEF, and the lower risk trade. That still doesn't mean it will be a winner, but it sure improves my odds of making money.

So whay is an ICL? – Intermediate Cycle Low: I will post some weekly cycle charts this weekend, but I trade the daily cycles.

Intermediate Cycles Low (ICL)/ Intermediate Cycle (IC)
ICL – Intermediate Cycle Low

Intermediate Cycle Low’s (ICL’s), happen about 2 or 3 times a year. They show up in both the General Stock market and the Gold and Gold Mining shares as well. These times of the year are the best time to buy at nice discounts.

The SP500 usually has an ICL every 16-25 weeks. The average being 22 weeks.

The Gold market usually has an ICL every 16-23 weeks, with the average being 18 weeks.

The USD market usually has an ICL every 16-23 weeks, with the average being 19 weeks.

The Bond market usually has an ICL every 16-28 weeks, with the average being 21 weeks.

When looking at the charts, use weekly data. This means that each bar on the chart is 1 week’s worth of trading of that security. I look at both Candlestick charts and Line charts. Looking at weekly charts, it is more easily discernible as to where the ICL’s sit on the chart, as depicted below.
https://jorntabel.com/intermediate-c...iate-cycle-ic/

Gold and the Miners: Moving down this morning. GDXJ remains below its 3 ema and the 10 sma on the daily. No confirmed trend trading buy signal for me. I remain a ST trader until I get a confirmed buy signal and can see the next daily trend. GDXJ looks to move lower at the open. We shall see how ugly it gets for gold today... Dollar on the move UP!

Long VXF, GDXJ and EQX. ( Playing small ball with these positions) I still have a 25% position in the S Fund. We shall see if we bottom soon (ICL) and we have our two monthly moves again. Well, for those of us that moved in to early. Catching the falling knife...... Using the weekly chart there was never a buy signal and a sell signal weeks ago. But as I pointed out I trade the daily cycles. I took more risk and it hasn't went my way so far.


SPY weekly: See chart below - Back above the 50 sma on the weekly chart which some use as a buy signal..... We shall see how it plays out....

EQX daily: I added another small tranche..... However, it looks ugly and remains in a downtrend. Tagged the lower BB.....

Gold Miners - Long GDXJ and EQX.....

EQX remains a losing trade.... 01/26/2022 09:39:47 Bought 200 EQX @ 6.3282

Added some shares of GDXJ @ $40.15ish...... "NOT" liking the action for EQX.... GDXJ moving up, but EQX still moving lower.

I'm going to keep holding EQX for now and see how it plays out. I don't use stops on these small miner positions. I usually add once I start buying tranches if we move lower.

Stocks looking much better this morning. We shall see how we close....