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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2929

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM and VXF daily: Both down over 20% from their November highs.

    Long VXF and SSO and both remain losing trades. Keep in mind I'm still under a 10% position in my trading accounts. I think lots of sell orders came in this morning from some investors throwing in the towel.

    VTI daily: The Total Stock Market at Vanguard. That would be a mix of C and the S funds. A huge move below the 200 sma on the daily in a very short time. I think some are saying - Just get me OUT! That is why the cycle dudes call it the Blood Bath Phase.
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    Last edited by robo; 01-24-2022 at 09:19 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2930

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY/SSO/SDS daily: If you are long SDS you are doing well! I don't short a market this oversold even though it could move lower. Risk Management..... Risk/Reward!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2931

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY/VXF and VTI daily charts: Buyers coming in...We shall see how we close...

    Bottom Line: The trend remains DOWN for all 3 of these indexes..... Which covers the Total Stock Market.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2932

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDXJ daily: I bought GDXJ under $40.00ish again, and some shares of JNUG and NUGT after tagging the lower BB. Small positions for NUGT and JNUG..... I trade based on the no leveraged charts for all trades. I use GDXJ and GDX, NOT JNUG or NUGT. I have been trading GDX around $30.00ish and GDXJ around $40.00ish, but I sometimes buy some shares of the leveraged indexes for a ST trade.

    I can how it sucks that those in TSP can not add. However, if you had unlimited moves, and you are taking/placing 100% moves that how would you have down in this down trend. If you placed 5 10% moves counting todays beat down you would still have a 50% as you waited for the next buy signal to complete your position.

    I would NEVER go a 100% on any trade and try to scale in using much SMALLER tranches. That is something you just CAN'T do at TSP.

    I'm going to try some data using the weekly charts and see how that plays out.
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    Last edited by robo; 01-24-2022 at 01:06 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2933

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI weekly: If you were using the weekly chart and the 10 sma weekly data for BUY and SELl signals this would be week 4 since the SELL signal. I use the 3 ema and the 10 sma on all my charts for trading signals. Sure, I get whipsawed, but the idea is to catch 80% of the big trending moves up and miss 80% of the big moves down. As you can see on the weekly chart there are times you are going to get whipsawed as you try and catch the next ICL or YCL. These bottoms normally result in a very nice solid trend that lasts months. That is why I track cycles..... One should use caution when placing big bets if the IC or YC is extremely stretched.

    For The record: I trade the daily cycles most of the time, and that would be tough using a TSP account.

    I point all this out because I have been asked by other TSPer's with a private message about how I trade. I just wanted to clear things up for anyone else reading other my Market Thoughts. I'm telling you what I'm currently doing based on my lessons learned, and what I'm doing. I'm not recommending to anyone how to invest or trade. There is NO SUCH thing as a perfect trading system. I have said before that I think the easy money has been made and one should use extra Risk Management going forward. This is NOT last years market. I think those BTD are finding that out already and it's very early in the year.

    Bottom Line: Using the weekly data and TSP would work well with only 2 moves a month MOST of the time. Back Test the data for yourself. There are some really good paid services here at TSP that would also work well based on the returns I have seen.

    So my point again, is not the number of moves you have, but how and when you make them. Taking the emotion out of your trades and using Risk Management is what I was trying to point out.

    READ EVERY ARTICLE from FRANK at the link below, and you will know where I got some of my Market Timing Tools. I will finish this some other time. Again, this is what I do and I'm not saying it's for you.

    Investor or Trader... Which Are You?

    Most market participants consider themselves to be "investors." But if you look at a list of the really big winners on Wall Street, you will see that most of those who make big profits, list themselves as "traders."

    By "big profits" we mean doing better than the S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq 100 Index by a substantial margin over any three-year period.

    Investors

    "Investors" put their money into stocks, real estate, etc., under the assumption that over time, the underlying investment will increase in value, and the investment will be profitable.

    Typically, investors do not have a plan for what to do if the investment decreases in value. They hold onto the investment in hopes it will bounce back and again become a winner.

    Investors anticipate declining markets with fear and anxiety, but unfortunately, they usually do not plan ahead of time how they will respond to them. When faced with a declining (bear) market, they hold their positions and continue to lose.

    We all know investors. In many cases it was us before we realized how dangerous buy-and-hold investing could be to our savings.

    Investors often have some knowledge of trading. But that knowledge is tainted by how it is all too often described in the financial press. Trading is risky, dangerous, foolish, bad, involves a great deal of work, etc. On the other hand "investing" is good, reliable and safe.

    Investors had a taste of what buy-and-hold can do to their capital in the 2000-2002 bear market. They lost again in the 2008-2009 bear market, and again in 2020.

    Traders

    On the other hand "traders" take a proactive approach to their investing. Traders have a defined plan and invest with one goal, to put their capital into the markets and "profit."

    They "trade" with a plan that tells them what to do in any situation. When to enter and when to exit. They never allow large losses.

    Being a trader does not mean you must move in and out of the markets frequently. This is a common misconception. A trader simply is one who has a plan for entering and exiting. They know what to do if their trade goes against them, and they know what to do when their trade is profitable.

    Some traders go short (take bearish positions) as well as long (bullish) positions. Some are unable to go short, or they find short positions to be uncomfortable. Probably the majority of traders do not ever take short positions.

    But traders "do" have a plan. This is where they differ from investors.

    Every Trader Needs A Trend

    If you think about it, you will quickly realize every trader needs a trend to be successful.

    No matter what trading method is used, whether it is pattern trading, swing trading, long term buy-and-hold investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, buying or selling on news events, IPOs, splits, you name it. If the stock or mutual fund does not trend in the required direction after the trade is made, you cannot be profitable.

    This also applies to all asset classes. Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities. You must have a trend to profit.

    Putting Trader & Trend Together

    There are two major camps when it comes to deciding what method to use to plan a trade. There are those who follow a fundamental analysis approach and those who follow a technical analysis approach.

    Traders use both methods to "forecast" future market direction. If combined with an exit strategy, either can be successful, but debate has raged for 30 years over which is the most successful strategy, as well as whether either method truly "outperforms" the markets over time.

    Some very astute market players have said that both fundamental and technical analysis approaches, though they can be profitable, usually are "no more profitable than an index fund."

    There is a scary thought. All that work when an index fund could do as well?

    "Price is always right. If prices are moving up, the markets are advancing. Down and the markets are declining."
    But there is another approach that is almost never discussed. Many hugely successful traders use it though the financial press seldom mentions it. In fact, many who use it are very quiet about their successes. They do not try to publicly prove themselves right, they just trade and make money.

    This approach is the use of price to determine trends. Price does not forecast and it does not predict. Price is always right. If prices are moving up, the markets are advancing. Down and the markets are declining.

    At Fibtimer we are "trend followers." We respond to what "is" happening instead of predicting or forecasting what might happen. We "follow" price and allow the changes in price to tell us "when" to enter or exit a position.

    Using price to determine trend does not allow trend traders to enter at the exact bottom, or to exit at the exact top. In fact, trend traders do not try to forecast the market, but instead let the market tell them when to trade and in what direction.

    Trend traders wait patiently for prices to tell them a trend has begun. Then they jump on board. If the trend fails, they exit quickly to control losses. Price tells them when to enter "and" when to exit. If the trend continues, trend traders have no predetermined profit goal. They stay with the trend until it reverses.

    Cutting losses quickly and staying with a trend until it ends is how trend traders realize huge profits in the financial markets. The financial markets are trending "about" 80% of the time. That means trend traders are profitable 80% of the time. During the other 20% trend traders keep losses very small so that they are ready when the next trend starts.

    This does not mean 80% of their trades are winners, just that they are in the plus column for that 80%. If you have three losing trades of 2% and one winning trade of 18% in a year, you finish with a 12% gain, even though most trades were losers. This fits the old saying, "cut your losses short and let your winners run."

    Conclusion

    Remember that "price" is determined by millions of investors and traders.

    By using price, trend traders take advantage of the combined wisdom of millions of investors and traders to trade a successful and profitable market timing strategy.

    Yes, it takes patience to be a successful trend trader. Yes, it takes discipline to follow the strategy and make the trades, which many times go against the prevailing wisdom. This is true of "all" winning market strategies.

    But trend traders who use price to determine trends have been quietly "beating" the markets for many years. They will quietly continue to do so for many more.
    https://www.fibtimer.com/about/prior_commentaries.asp
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    Last edited by robo; 01-24-2022 at 01:39 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2934

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI weekly: I use the closing prices for trend-trading not the inter-day real-time prices like my trading account. It's week 4 since the last sell signal using the weekly trend trading chart. I use the daily charts for ST trading..... Those charts can NOT be used with a TSP account with only two moves a month based on the daily closing price. Man does that really SUCK! Again, I use the TSP for G Funds and sometimes I will move funds into an index fund at extreme oversold levels trying to catch an ICL or a YCL. When you are close to 70 you should have a nice chunk of your funds an accounts that are lower Risks. Well, that is what I'm doing.....

    Take Care!
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    Last edited by robo; 01-24-2022 at 02:09 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #2935

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily chart: Chart is after the close..... Will shall see if we get some follow through tomorrow, and an ICL in the days ahead. Also, I will be looking to read what the cycle dudes come up with.... One day does not make a trend, but lots of shorts got stopped out today. I would like to see the SPY move back above the 3 ema and test the 10 sma on the daily chart this week. I use the closing prices. Some folks here mentioned the PPT was at work today......
    Plunge Protection Team - Literally

    LOL..... You can bet the Fed was getting worried with the ugly gap down we had this morning!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2936

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily volume: This was the highest volume day since the March 2020 beat down volume. We shall see how this works out! We had several ugly high volume sell-off days before we started seeing up volume days like today. I don't know how tomorrow will work out, but a nice move up none the less..... I think we will see more of these type moves this year.

    We shall see!

    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics

    4h
    FWIW.... $NASDAQ VOLUME 4.5B here - so the case can be made for "capitulation" levels.
    https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
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    Last edited by robo; 01-24-2022 at 05:03 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2937

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: We still can't rule out that this was just a short-squeeze before the next move down..... We should know in the next few days if this was indeed an DCL and maybe an ICL....


    SPX cycle dude:

    Buy Signal
    Posted on January 24, 2022

    Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday.

    Monday was day 33 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. We will use a swing low and a close above the 200 day MA as our signal that Monday was the DCL, using the 200 day MA as our stop.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2938

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Fed Speak is up next: Buckle up! How many rate hikes are coming this year to handle inflation..... I think the Fed may have bigger problems. How do they reduce their balance sheet that BLEW THIS BUBBLE UP SO BIG? Hmmmmm.......


    A bear market is a marathon, not a sprint.


    The average true U.S. equity bear market lasts about two years or 104 weeks. So far the current bear market has been around for three weeks. So if you've been staying up past midnight figuring out what to do the next day, and you've been cutting back on meals and exercise because you're spending all day trading, then the past few weeks will be repeated a total of 35 times. By the time the bear market is over, regardless of how much money you've made or lost, you'll have to be carried out on a stretcher. You should be gradually adding to the most compelling bargains into the most extended weakness and otherwise not trying to be an intraday hero or pretending you can divine what the market will do over the next day or hour. Save the fortunetelling for Zelda, the woman who runs the place in the basement with a neon sign with a special introductory offer of five dollars.

    Kaplan

    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

    https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor


    Key Decisions for Balance Sheet Reduction
    Goldman weighs in on the most important "reduction" of this bull market...

    How do we take the BS down to $6 trillion?
    Goldman has the FED balance sheet to decline from $8.8tn to $6.1-6.6tn over 2-2.5 years.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    Last edited by robo; 01-25-2022 at 06:59 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2939

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Fed Speak is up next: Buckle up, and how make rate hikes are coming to handle inflation..... I think they have bigger problems...


    A bear market is a marathon, not a sprint.


    The average true U.S. equity bear market lasts about two years or 104 weeks. So far the current bear market has been around for three weeks. So if you've been staying up past midnight figuring out what to do the next day, and you've been cutting back on meals and exercise because you're spending all day trading, then the past few weeks will be repeated a total of 35 times. By the time the bear market is over, regardless of how much money you've made or lost, you'll have to be carried out on a stretcher. You should be gradually adding to the most compelling bargains into the most extended weakness and otherwise not trying to be an intraday hero or pretending you can divine what the market will do over the next day or hour. Save the fortunetelling for Zelda, the woman who runs the place in the basement with a neon sign with a special introductory offer of five dollars.

    Kaplan

    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

    https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor


    Key Decisions for Balance Sheet Reduction
    Goldman weighs in on the most important "reduction" of this bull market...
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2940

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Gold Miners daily: Buying some shares of EQX again for a trade..... Maybe making another higher low??? We shall see..... Waiting to see what the market does based on Fed Speak....
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    Last edited by robo; 01-25-2022 at 09:02 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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