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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2905

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I don't believe you can have a margin account in a normal IRA so the 2 day settlement rule would be an issue to unlimited trades. Still, that means maybe 15 "all or nothing" type trades per month?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #2906

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Bubble update: Intermediate correction entering the bloodbath phase

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GW3PO2G2Fu0
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2907

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerray View Post
    So, if one rolled over nearly all of his TSP into a Vanguard account, then one could make free trades, right? But, is there a dollar limit on how big a trade can be? In the TSP, I very often move my entire balance with an IFT. Also, if someone wants to make numerous trades in a day without worrying about settled funds, then you'd need a day-trading account, no? If this January has shown me anything, it's that I'm much too limited very often.
    Tom has that correct Brother. However, as a trader I would NEVER move all of my funds at once on a single trade. I have a Roth broker account at Vanguard.

    Example You have 100k in your account:

    This is how your balance would look.

    Funds available to trade 100k:
    Funds available to withdraw 100k: These funds have cleared.

    You move 100k to VXF on 1-20-22 and sell the same day. You now have funds that you must wait two days to clear. However, you can still buy one more time.

    You can buy VXF back again on the 23rd, but if you sell before the funds clear on the 24th from the first trade it's a free ride and you get your first warning.

    So, you can BUY, SELL and BUY again all in the same day if you "STARTED" the day and all your funds were settled funds, but now you must wait 2 days for the first trade to settle before selling again or you get a warning. There is a move to change it to one day, and it might pass soon. Brother moving 100% of you money on a single move is a good thing in a Bull Market, but during a deeper correction or a Bear Market those types of moves can be an account killer. There are folks right now here on the tracker that are down around (-10%). Sure they will get their money back if we are still in a Bull market and the market bounces back. But what if it doesn't or folks sell just before a huge bounce.

    VXF is now down close to (-19%) since its high in November. I posted what happened to me the first few years I went to Vanguard on an another post. The result was I lost a shitload of money from over trading, but learned fairly quick about over trading and risk management.

    I have a Roth Brokerage account at Vanguard. So I don't have to worry about RMD's or paying taxes on money I withdraw. I use TSP mainly for the G Fund.
    Bottom line: Unlimited moves are very good thing in a Bull Market, but one has to be careful over trading in a market like this one.

    Call Vanguard Brother and they will answer all your questions. You will need a broker type account to trade anytime during the trading day.

    So look at the chart below of VXF and tell me when you would have made these 100% moves Brother.

    I like Vanguard and unlimited moves, but I have a trading system and indicators I use for buy and sell signals. I also use Risk Management..... I told you when I first got unlimited moves I went from the frying pan right into the fire. Sometimes having only two moves will save you money.

    Maybe you could move say 10k to Vanguard and see how it works out. That is what I did when I started out, and lost money with unlimited moves. My point is what type of system will you use at Vanguard to make these trades. If you have one that is working well then you should do ok Brother.

    Take Care and call Vanguard.

    I also have two account at TD Ameritrade for trading. One is a Roth IRA and the other is just a normal account. Lots of headaches with that account when it comes tax time.
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    Last edited by robo; 01-20-2022 at 08:12 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #2908

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI and the 50 sma on the weekly for LT investing in a TSP account. Not something I do, but a option for those that don't like to trade. VTI is the total stock market. A move above the 50 sma is a confirmed buy signal and a move below is a sell. An option instead of trading. Will all that said, there are some pretty darn good paid services here at TSP Talk that will help you make money using your TSP funds if you are not sure what to do. Keep in mind, ever year CAN NOT be a big winner, but overall it will help you grow your retirement account. I sure used some of them when i first started out, and watched a few folks on the tracker. Some of them are gone now. I'm just not cut out to make 100% moves on any single trade these days. Been there and done that! LOL.... I'm almost 70 now, and just don't want to take much risk.

    This would be a mix of C Fund and S Fund.

    Futures are getting smashed down again.....
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    Last edited by robo; 01-20-2022 at 09:24 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2909

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    NASDAQ - most oversold since the corona panic
    NASDAQ futs closed below the 200 day moving average. Haven't seen that in a long time. RSI is the most oversold since the corona crash. Not a pretty close as short gamma continues reinforcing all moves and the CTA guys are happy adding to the most recent net short NASDAQ position.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2910

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: Yes Sir, the 200 sma on the daily be up next!

    SPX - approaching the 200 day
    SPX closed below the 100 day yesterday and is now marching towards the 200 day moving average. RSI has not been this low since the corona panic. Late day px action was brutal as short gamma, CTA sellers and shitty liquidity are all perfect ingredients for exaggerating volatility.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2911

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Failed Daily Cycle

    Stocks broke below the previous daily cycle low on Thursday.
    Breaking below the previous daily cycle low forms a failed daily cycle. In the Weekend Report I plan to discuss how the failed daily cycle impacts the status of the intermediate cycle as well as the status of the yearly cycle.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...daily-cycle-3/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2912

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM daily: It could hit the (-20%) lower point from its November high this morning. We shall see how it plays out as sellers continue to show up.

    Bottom Line: The move down for small caps continues....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2913

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Hmmmm..... Watching IWM and VXF: Close to a Bear Market so the talking heads should be bring this up soon. IWM is an index that is watched closely.....

    What Is a Bear Market?
    A bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2914

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Just close your eyes and buy, or different this time?
    Every dip & correction feels scary in it's own way. There is almost always some "new" macro or market-internal variable associated with a sell-off that makes investors nervous to buy. This current "correction" does however feel even more different than previous ones. Let's examine the idiosyncrasies in this sell-off.

    Retail capitulation
    JPM QDS team tells us that the retail investor net sold $53mm, with $400mm...
    https://themarketear.com/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2915

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily and the 200 sma on the daily: Getting closer to the 200 sma..... Waiting to see if we get a smash down at the close or the 200 sma holds.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2916

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF daily: Close to the 20% down from the highs, but VXF is getting a small bounce. We shall see if it can hold....
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    Last edited by robo; 01-21-2022 at 01:39 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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