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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2893

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: The first test for the Bulls is to close above the 100 sma on the daily.....

    Long SSO for a trade: This is a counter-trend trade based on a oversold condition, and a few other indicators I use for ST trading. We shall see how it plays out.

    Bottom Line: The SPY trend remains down.

    Long GDXJ and VXF
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2894

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX guy just called us...
    Regular readers of TME are familiar with the "VIX guy". He is our contra indicator when it comes to VIX as well as short term market directions. Let us remind you of what we wrote about his latest VIX call on Dec 31: "...his latest logic is basically the inverse of what he said in late November. He has also managed picking up the January effect logic and argues for this market to remain trending higher with diminishing volatility. We did not plan to get excited on the last day of the year, but given his perfect track record, executing the first part of the planned long volatility trade suddenly seems like a good idea." We suggested to look at hedges and pointed out: "...exploring put spreads as a hedge (skew is high)."

    This was only twenty days ago and since then a lot of things have changed. The VIX guy called us today outlining his bearish thesis and is basically telling us VIX must go higher: "have you seen the pricing of the rate hikes, tech is going much lower bro, Fed is behind the curve, ARKK is crashing etc". Given his perfect track record (inversely speaking), we find closing out those put spreads and any long vol trades very attractive (would even consider shorting some vols to fit direction trades).

    SPX is at must hold levels and VIX has already spiked big. So far we haven't seen the "real" panic in VIX, but note that we are at the same VIX levels as we hit during the early autumn correction, which in our view looks very similar to the current draw down (SPX below the 100 day and hitting the longer term trend line).

    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2895

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The First Buy Signal of the Year
    Jeff Clark | Jan 20, 2022 | Market Minute | 2 min read
    2022 is starting off as a tough year for investors.

    As of Tuesday, the Dow is down 2.7%… The S&P 500 is down 4%… And the Nasdaq is down more than 7%.

    Conditions have gotten quite oversold. So far, anyone buying into those oversold conditions has suffered from even more selling pressure.

    But, that’s about to change…

    It looks like the Volatility Index (VIX) is on the verge of generating its first buy signal of 2022.

    Take a look at this chart of the VIX along with its Bollinger Bands

    he VIX closed above its upper Bollinger Band on Tuesday. When it closes back inside the bands, the VIX will generate a new, broad stock market buy signal. That could happen as soon as today…

    VIX buy signals were quite reliable in 2021. Eight out of the 11 buy signals proved to be profitable.

    Traders who bought the S&P 500 on the last buy signal in early December saw that index rally nearly 7% over the next three weeks.

    Of course, there’s no guarantee that something similar will happen this time around.

    But given the current oversold conditions, it looks to me like the stock market is setting up for at least a strong oversold bounce.

    And, a VIX buy signal might be the catalyst that gets it started.

    Best regards and good trading,


    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...l-of-the-year/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2896

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX daily: A tool I use too, but these indicators only give you higher odds for a winning trade. NOTHING is ever for sure!

    Long SSO, VXF and GDXJ.

    SSO is a ST trade
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2897

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL..... Ok..... Thanks for the warning!

    It's Time To Go To Cash For The Next 7 Years - 1-Year Update
    Jan. 20, 2022 2:41 PM

    Summary

    This is a follow-up to one of my most popular, and controversial pieces published on Seeking Alpha.

    The stock market and bond market remain historically overvalued today, however, the almost all-encompassing bubble has started to break.

    On this note, the average Nasdaq Composite stock is down more than 40% from its highs, the ARK Innovation ETF drawdown has exceeded 50%, and SPACs have collapsed.

    Popular market barometers like the Invesco QQQ Trust and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, which are both filled with large-cap growth bond proxies, have begun their descent too.

    Under the surface, a historical capital rotation is taking place, and our Best Ideas Model Portfolio returned north of 100% in 2021. In short, it remains a bifurcated market.


    "I will go to my grave... believing that really loose monetary policy greatly contributed to the Financial Crisis. There were obviously problems with regulation, but when we had a 1% Fed Funds rate in 2003 after, to me, it was pretty obvious that the economy had turned (up) and I think the economy was growing at 7% to 9% nominal in the fourth quarter of 2003 and that wasn't enough for the Fed. They had this little thing called 'considerable period' on top of the 1% rate just so we would make sure that their meaning was clear. And it was all wrapped around this concept of an insurance cut… I've made some money predicting boom-bust cycles. It's what I do. Sometimes I am right. Sometimes I am wrong, but every bust I had ever seen was proceeded by an asset bubble generally set up by too loose policy..."

    - Stanley Druckenmiller
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/448...+Article+Smart
    This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Contrarian. Learn More »
    Last edited by robo; 01-20-2022 at 02:34 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2898

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF daily: Remains in a downtrend..... Buyers pushed it back above the 3 ema in early trading, but sellers came in. BTD or STR? Looks like some are doing both....

    We shall see how the last 30 minutes of trading goes and if any buyers step-up..... Not looking good for Da-Bulls!

    Still long SSO, VXF and GDXJ.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #2899

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: The selling continues and the SPY looks to close below the 100 sma again..... LOL.... You can sense the fear of another big sell-off coming soon. We shall see.

    Bottom Line: The trend remains DOWN!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2900

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Nasdaq-100 below 200 DMA first time since April 2020. The beloved index that brought so many pajama traders joy during the pandemic is now ripe for one of those Hindenburg omens to kick in.

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  17. #2901

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM daily: IWM is down almost 20% from its November high..... Not what Da-Bulls want to see..... Wait until the Big names in the SPY start selling off.

    Bottom Line: The trend for small caps remains DOWN and the chart looks ugly. ICL coming? We shall see....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2902

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY monthly: A move down to the 50 sma on the monthly has above average odds of happening in the next few years. But when is the question? We should know more in the weeks ahead if we are moving into a YCL as this one remains very stretched above the mean. As you can see by looking at the monthly chart we are FAR from oversold using that data. However, I trade the daily as do most of you.


    SPY daily: The 200 sma is up next!

    Bottom Line: The trend remains down.

    Some are probably ready to "Throw The Damn Towel"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfAYz6p-mlw
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    Last edited by robo; 01-20-2022 at 03:07 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2903

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Nasdaq-100 below 200 DMA first time since April 2020. The beloved index that brought so many pajama traders joy during the pandemic is now ripe for one of those Hindenburg omens to kick in.
    It’s always easy BTD until it’s NOT! Some are probably getting a tad worried.

    Moving into an ICL or a YCL usually causes extra selling due to the fear factor. Especially if one is heavily invested or using leverage. We shall see in the days ahead what kind of sell off this is.
    Last edited by robo; 01-20-2022 at 04:32 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2904

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    So, if one rolled over nearly all of his TSP into a Vanguard account, then one could make free trades, right? But, is there a dollar limit on how big a trade can be? In the TSP, I very often move my entire balance with an IFT. Also, if someone wants to make numerous trades in a day without worrying about settled funds, then you'd need a day-trading account, no? If this January has shown me anything, it's that I'm much too limited very often.
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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