Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

How the Japanese Yen Relates to the Stock Market
Imre Gams | Jan 19, 2022 | Market Minute | 4 min read
What can the Japanese yen tell us about American stocks?

Well, as it turns out, quite a bit.

The Japanese yen has long held a reputation for being a safe-haven currency.

Meaning, when traders are feeling uncertain or fearful, the yen tends to appreciate while risk-on assets like stocks tend to get sold.

But why would the currency of another country be so attractive when the market gets scared and investors duck for cover?
What can the Japanese yen tell us about American stocks?

Well, as it turns out, quite a bit.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...-stock-market/

The Yield Of Supersafe I Bonds May Soon Reach 6-7%; Don't Wait, Buy In January
Jan. 16, 2022 6:04 AM ET158 Comments57 Likes
Summary

The nice lady with the dog pictured below is in a celebratory mood perhaps because she just bought her annual allotment of I Bonds.

I Bonds are the ultimately safe and effective inflation investment offering flexibility in holding period, a likely 6-7% 12 month yield, and up to 30 years of inflation protection.

This article suggests buying your annual $10K limit a few days before the end of January rather than waiting for the May or November resets.

I Bonds with their zero fixed rate beat the daylights out of TIPS all maturities of which have negative real yield plus vulnerability to a general bond selloff.

Nobody really knows where inflation will go or whether we will experience deflation; I Bonds purchased now defend against deflation too, never declining from their highest accumulated value.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/447...buy-in-january


Consider doing at least some of your 2022 I-Bonds purchases during the upcoming week.


If you buy I Bonds during the coming week then you will get the entire month's interest for January and you will be locked in at 7.12% guaranteed with no state or local income taxes through the end of June 2022:

Kaplan
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

Bearish Behavior

Stocks continued lower on Tuesday.

Stocks broke below the day 24 low on Tuesday to extend the daily cycle decline. Stocks also closed below the lower daily cycle band on Tuesday. Closing below the lower daily cycle band ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. Closing below the lower daily cycle band also indicates that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. A break below the previous daily cycle low of 4495.12 will form a failed daily cycle, confirming the intermediate cycle decline.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...rish-behavior/

UUP down and GDXJ up: GDXJ on the move and back above the 10 sma on the daily..... Now, will this be the start of a trending move?

GDXJ daily: GDXJ made a very nice move up this morning. I'm selling 1/2 of my shares. I will say it again, I'm a trader NOT an investor. The current price is $43.00ish we shall see how it closes. I'm sure the gold bugs are saying this is it again. Maybe it is and that is why I kept 1/2 of my shares. I was also long JNUG at the open. I like to ST trade NUGT/JNUG/DUST on occasion. ( Example - For a ST trade I might buy 2000 dollars worth of NUGT instead of 4000 dollars of GDX.)

01/18/2022 09:38:02 Bought 50 JNUG @ 57.985

I will NOT post my leveraged day trades here at TSP. Way to many..... I'm also not ruling out a ST DUST trade....

IWM daily: Bottoming? We shall see as many are getting fairly Beared up again. ICL may be coming our way...

Looking to buy some UWM for a trade......

IWM weekly: Tagging the lower BB and 9 weeks below the 10 sma on the weekly chart.

I Bonds and a comment From Kaplan:


Your fourth-quarter U.S. estimated income taxes are due at midnight, plus you can ensure another 5K in I Bonds for 2021.


If you still haven't paid your U.S. estimated taxes then I would recommend setting up an account at https://eftps.com/eftps/ this evening and paying your fourth-quarter U.S. estimated tax. Even if you don't owe anything, you can intentionally overpay your federal income tax by at least five thousand dollars. When you do your income taxes next month (or later for tardy folks) you will then be able to apply up to five thousand dollars of your eventual 2021 refund toward I Bonds for 2021. This is the only way you can purchase more I Bonds for calendar year 2021. If you haven't done your 2022 I Bonds purchases yet then I would recommend logging in and doing BuyDirect at https://TreasuryDirect.gov/ by next week so you will be credited with interest at 7.12% annualized for the entire period from January 1, 2022 through June 30, 2022.

https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

SPY daily: The 10 sma moving below the 50 sma should bring out more and Bigger Bears..... We shall see what happens to the put/call ratio as more folks are expecting a deeper selloff.

Heading into the last hour of trading. We shall see if some buyers show up........ The tag of the 100 sma is still in play, but buyers don't seem to want to play. Maybe just to many scared sellers.

Bottom Line: The trend remains down for the SPY.

Nasdaq now in correction territory, down more than 10% and unable to be saved by beloved AAPL, TSLA, MSFT and NVDA.

SPX sitting on support from September 2021 as all momentum indicators have turned down.

IWM is a total mess and has been since February 2021, yet people still stick with it because it's "aggressive".

All growth estimates in China have seen drastic cuts, but the cheerleaders said Evergrande was a nothing burger the day it broke and have buried it ever since.

The whole time the media has been pushing everyone to be in stocks because of inflation and raising rates. Risk management for most is an afterthought. Why bother investing some in bonds or cash when YOLO and FIRE are unable to happen without 100% allocation to stocks?

You probably saw this already from yesterday. I'm sure those numbers are worse after today:

Around 39% of the stocks in the [Nasdaq] index have at least halved from their highs, according to Jason Goepfert at Sundial Capital Research, while the index is roughly 7% off its peak. At no other point since at least 1999—around the dot-com bubble—have so many Nasdaq stocks fallen that far while the index was this close to its high

https://www.wsj.com/articles/giant-s...2-11642351304?

Originally Posted by Bullitt

Nasdaq now in correction territory, down more than 10% and unable to be saved by beloved AAPL, TSLA, MSFT and NVDA.

SPX sitting on support from September 2021 as all momentum indicators have turned down.

IWM is a total mess and has been since February 2021, yet people still stick with it because it's "aggressive".

All growth estimates in China have seen drastic cuts, but the cheerleaders said Evergrande was a nothing burger the day it broke and have buried it ever since.

The whole time the media has been pushing everyone to be in stocks because of inflation and raising rates. Risk management for most is an afterthought. Why bother investing some in bonds or cash when YOLO and FIRE are unable to happen without 100% allocation to stocks?

You probably saw this already from yesterday. I'm sure those numbers are worse after today:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/giant-s...2-11642351304?

If we don't get an ICL and a bounce soon, I will have to rethink my current trading plan.

SPX - extremely oversold as we approach make or break levels
We closed below the 100 day, RSI is very very oversold and we are close to 4500, the "ultimate" make or break level to watch. Should we close below the 4500 and 200 day moving is the next big support.