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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2857

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    USD daily: It tagged the 100 sma on the daily chart, and we got an oversold bounce so far. We shall see how this plays it. It looks to be putting pressure on stocks today. I added some more GDXJ today, but buyers are not coming in as quick today. I will be watching the last hour of trading..... One would think we will bounce some, but this is not the 2021 market folks are use to. Additional selling will NOT be GOOD! Buying early in a Bull market is never a problem, but this Bull is stretched above it's mean (The SPY) and getting long in the tooth.

    NO..... I don't know where the dollar is headed next..... However, since I trade both ways I don't really care. I will trade what it does to the indexes in realtime..... Up or down as I don't really care. I'm sure investors are pulling their hair out trying to figure out how to play this market. BTD..... my not work as well this year.
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    Last edited by robo; 01-14-2022 at 01:37 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2858

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDXJ daily: Waiting to see if the Bulls can get back the 10 sma on the daily. The cycle dudes will comment this weekend about where we are in the current daily cycles.

    I added a few more shares close to $40.00ish as we moved below the 10 sma on the daily. I bought a tad early today, but buying below $40.00ish is still my plan....


    GDXJ 2 hour chart:
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2859

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL..... This is a good one! 2021 was the year of extremes. We shall see how 2022 plays out.

    Extreme Valuations - The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits.

    – Albert Einstein


    Return-Free Risk


    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    President, Hussman Investment Trust

    January 14, 2022

    "The single difference between the most recent market cycle and other cycles across history is that in every other cycle, speculation always had a well-defined limit. We gauged those extremes based on what I describe as “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” syndromes. Unfortunately, zero interest rates have proved to be a kind of acid that burns through every shred of intellect, driving investors to imagine that any asset that varies in price – regardless of how extreme its valuation or how uncertain its underlying cash flows – is better than zero-interest cash. My error in this cycle was to believe that speculation still had well-defined limits. In late-2017, I abandoned that view, and became content to gauge speculation versus risk-aversion based on the condition of market internals. Since then, we’ve refrained from adopting or amplifying a bearish outlook when our measures of internals are constructive, regardless of how extreme valuations might be."

    The thing that ‘holds the stock market up’ isn’t zero-interest liquidity, at least not in any mechanical way. It’s a particularly warped form of speculative psychology that rules out the possibility of loss, regardless of how extreme valuations have become.

    – John P. Hussman, Ph.D., Maladaptive Beliefs, September 12, 2021

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220114/

    Bottom Line: SPY monthly chart - The SPY is currently way above its mean based on all the historical data I looked at.
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    Last edited by robo; 01-14-2022 at 02:11 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2860

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    "When I left the government many years ago I left a portion of my money in the TSP and rolled over the rest into an IRA so I could do more active trading. Now I'm getting a little sick of getting screwed every time I make one of our two precious IFTs each month... "[by Tom 1/14/21 Market Comments] "I hear you Brother: I mainly use the TSP now for the G Fund..." [by Robo] ....
    Interesting and I agree. I just retired 2-weeks ago & planning to roll-over most of my TSP to Self-Managed IRA (not sure which & welcome ideas/tips), but leave perhaps 20% to 25% in TSP for the meanwhile to use G-fund while still able to move it given drastic stupid limits in/out of CSIF some. Thank you both Tom and Robo for commenting on this.

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  9. #2861

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Miner Volatility
    Posted on January 15, 2022

    The status of the daily Miners cycle is not clear. Closing above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Wednesday indicates the day 16 hosted an early DCL. But then the Miners lost the 50 day MA on Thursday and formed a swing high on Friday.


    A close below the 10 day MA will signal a continuation of the daily cycle decline. However, the Miners formed a bullish reversal off the 10 day MA on Friday. The Miners are currently in daily uptrend. If they form a swing low and close back above the 50 day MA then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. If this occurs then we will label day 16 as an early DCL.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...smoneystudies/


    Morris took profits. Me too, buy I'm buying back my position. We shall see how this next DCL plays out. We closed above the 10 sma on Friday, but will we see a smack down next week.
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    Last edited by robo; 01-15-2022 at 08:17 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2862

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Gold Lagging Inflation
    Adam Hamilton
    Archives
    Jan 14, 2022

    Government officials are blaming this crazy inflation on supply-chain snarls, which is pure misdirection. As legendary American economist Milton Friedman warned way back in 1963, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." When money supplies are ramped faster than economies' goods and services, relatively-more money competing for relatively-less things to spend it on bids up their prices.

    Central banks directly control money supplies. In the past 22.3 months since March 2020's pandemic-lockdown stock panic, the Fed has mushroomed its balance sheet an insane 110.8% higher or $4,607b! By directly monetizing $3,187b of US Treasuries and $1,243b of mortgage-backed bonds, the Fed has effectively more than doubled the US-dollar monetary base! Such extreme excess is wildly-unprecedented.


    All those trillions of dollars the Fed conjured out of thin air to buy bonds were quickly spent, injecting that vast deluge of new money into the real economy. With monetary growth greatly exceeding underlying economic growth, prices of almost everything are surging to reflect vast oceans of new dollars sloshing around. Except gold's, history's premier inflation hedge has largely slept through this money-printing orgy.


    But regardless of what government statisticians claim to keep their political bosses happy, Americans running households and businesses know exactly what their own real-world costs are doing. My wife and I are shocked at how much more money it takes to maintain our family's standard of living. I've talked with dozens of friends and heard from hundreds of subscribers about inflation, and they all feel the same way.

    Jan 14, Gold Lagging Inflation Adam Hamilton 321gold ...inc ...s
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #2863

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by FAAM View Post
    Interesting and I agree. I just retired 2-weeks ago & planning to roll-over most of my TSP to Self-Managed IRA (not sure which & welcome ideas/tips), but leave perhaps 20% to 25% in TSP for the meanwhile to use G-fund while still able to move it given drastic stupid limits in/out of CSIF some. Thank you both Tom and Robo for commenting on this.
    (welcome ideas/tips) LOL..... I will give you some of my lessons learned. I lost a shitload of money at first when I went to an account with unlimited moves. (Over trading with Leverage)

    I like Vanguard now for a couple of reasons.

    First - They do NOT allow you to trade leveraged funds.

    Second - They do NOT allow you to trade short funds.

    I have a different account for trading and yes I sometimes buy leveraged 2X indexes, but the positions are usually much smaller. ( examples - UWM, SSO, JNUG, NUGT) Trading is like gambling in my opinion, and even though I'm pretty good at it I sometimes get smacked down, and the house wins BIG!. That is why one should keep your trades small, and NEVER bet to much on a single trade.

    I have a trading account at Vanguard, and mainly trade VTI. Sure I trade another things, but keep in mind this is an account for LT retirement funds and one should be careful with investment choices. I learned a hard lesson when I moved money to a trading account. Back then the trades were not free, but I started over trading in some sectors. I learned quickly to just trade the Total Stock Market, and now I have unlimited moves anytime during the trading day. Boy, did I do much better in my YTD returns. I still trade other sectors, but I don't take as much risk with my Vanguard account. If I can get 10% a year return I'm VERY HAPPY. However, that is harder then it sounds. Why? Because I NEVER EVER place a trade over 10% of my account balance, and most of the time it is less.

    My point and the bottom line: Be careful moving into an account that you have unlimited moves. Also, NEVER use leverage when using funds in a retirement account.

    VTI daily chart below: Anyway, I like to use VTI at Vanguard and keep it simple Brother. I'm in or out just like the TSPer's, but use VTI instead of the TSP funds. I use TSP for the G Fund. I'm currently trying to move money around in TSP using my system, because my son asked me to. He is a GS13 with a nice size TSP account. My advice to him was - do the matching, max out a Roth IRA at Vanguard, and then max out TSP if you can for the tax break since he is single. However, I'm trying it to see how it works out.

    I moved 15% into the S Fund Friday so I got the closing price. I bought at Vanguard too, during the trading day. My price at Vanguard was much cheaper so we shall see how this plays out. Like Tom, I hated to try and move money in the TSP. It's great for investors and is not meant to be used for trading.

    So that is what I did and good luck to you.
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    Last edited by robo; 01-15-2022 at 09:12 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2864

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I bought VXF ( Like the S Fund) at Vanguard during the trading day on Friday, and I can sell whenever I want, as often as I want, anytime during the trading day.

    A high risk counter-trend trade based on a oversold, lower BB tag. I took a 15% position using TSP funds, ( which is a small account these days) and a even smaller position at Vanguard. The price I got was just lucky, but close to the low of the day. I was waiting for a back test of the lows.... So that worked out this time. I still have NO IDEA what VXF will do next week. The chart looks ugly and it remains in a downtrend. NO buy signal from my system. This is a ST trade based on other indicators and not my trend trading system. That system remains in a 100% cash position. The 15% move Friday is gambling, but with odds I like for a win. Like counting cards when playing Blackjack, but that doesn't mean you have a winner. It just improves your odds for a win.

    So a few tips based on what I did with my TSP funds. My trading accounts is a much different story!

    Dear robo,

    The following order executed on 01/14/2022 at 1:17 PM, Eastern time:

    Account:
    Transaction type: Buy
    Order type: Market
    Security: VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET ETF (VXF)
    Quantity: 25 share(s)
    Price:* $170.44
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    Last edited by robo; 01-15-2022 at 09:17 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2865

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    In BUY territory. Close to "EXTREME BUY"...
    The Goldman Sachs "Sentiment Indicator" measures stock positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors versus the past 12 months. Readings below -1.0 or above +1.0 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2866

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL..... Maybe to some..... One thing I do agree with..... It's what the Fed does, not what it says, that investors should be watching for the next several months. The insiders continue to sell.

    Probably the most important chart in the world
    DM normalization is expected to move along multiple fronts as rising policy rates will be accompanied by balance sheet contraction. DM central banks have added nearly $12 trillion to their balance sheets over the past two years and JPM expect a roughly $2 trillion runoff over 2022-23.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    Last edited by robo; 01-16-2022 at 09:20 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2867

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Cycles - YCL: 22 months since the last yearly cycle low. Note the historical data of the 50 sma on the monthly. If that doesn't concern you as an investor then you are not paying attention to valuations.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2868

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Cycles: It all sounds good, but my magic 8 ball is broken. So we shall see how it plays out and I will just trade what happens in real-time.

    Dollar update: Crash coming?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzOsBHHhMaU

    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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