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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2653

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Well, the VIX under 15ish pattern played out. We shall if we fill the gap next and get another bounce..... I don't know what will happen. I'm just pointing out the pattern. Maybe we will head back under 15ish again.
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    Last edited by robo; 12-08-2021 at 05:36 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2654

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SLV daily: Trying to bottom or getting ready for the next move lower? I will buy a few shares around $20.00ish again this morning.

    I will post a closer look after the open and see how far we gap down. It looks like $20.25ish.... We might just fill the gap at the open.

    SLV daily a closer look: A bought one tranche before the open for a trade @ $20.25 These trades are small.....

    12/09/2021 08:55:09 Bought SLV @ 20.25
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SL...7&a=1077290747
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    Last edited by robo; 12-09-2021 at 08:36 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2655

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SILJ/EQX and GDX daily: All are having trouble at the 10 sma on the daily.....

    The miners are always on my buy list "IF" the price is right.... LOL..... We shall see if buyers come in and we make higher lows, or just move lower. Either way I will be buying for a trade around these prices....
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    Last edited by robo; 12-09-2021 at 08:50 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #2656

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VIX 2 hour chart: VIX filling the gap!


    VIX guy continues nailing it
    NASDAQ futs unch, SPX futs unch,. What is the vol of that? As a reminder this is what our favorite VIX (inverse) indicator told us a week ago (here):

    "His main idea was to buy VIX here. Needless to say we are starting to sell volatility here. One way to play it is via put spreads in VIX. After all, volatility is mean reverting and our VIX guy has continued holding the perfect 100% inverse track record. Will he nail it again?"

    Here we are with the VIX having crashed and it continues moving lower today. Dealers are in long gamma and unless this moves asap they will add to vol selling as well as funds getting involved in overwriting stuff post the squeeze move. Chart showing the VIX as well as the 2/8 months spread imploding.
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2657

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    2022 should be good for trading in my opinion. I think investors will NOT like it. Of course that is just an opinion, and I will trade what is happening and not what I think will happen.


    After a modest pullback, buyers come back in a historic way
    Jason Goepfert
    Jason Goepfert
    Published: 2021-12-09 at 0700 CST
    Deeply oversold...then really, really not

    At the end of November, selling pressure was concentrated enough to push the 10-day average of NYSE Up Volume below 40%. By December 1, that 10-day average dropped to 34%, oversold enough to be in the bottom 2% of all days since 1962.
    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...8df-1271291994
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2658

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A couple of Tweets: Maybe a move back down to the 100 sma on the daily chart? That is not a guess from me, but a DeMark possible signal. I DO NOT trade based on any signals other then my own. We shall see how it plays out in the days ahead.

    David Rosenberg
    @EconguyRosie
    ·
    2h
    Initial jobless claims plunged to 184k in the December 4th week from 227k in the November 27th week. This is the lowest level since September 6th, 1969! Bullish statistic? No. A recession came out of the blue exactly three months later.
    https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en



    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    @hussmanjp
    ·
    1h
    Not part of our own process, but interesting in the context of the motherlode of overextended syndromes we're observing here (see special comment at top of this thread). Just FYI.
    Quote Tweet
    Thomas Thornton
    @TommyThornton
    · 2h
    $SPX futures with DeMark Sequential sell Countdown 13 as we have been expecting. Now awaiting a price flip over the coming days.
    https://twitter.com/hussmanjp?ref_sr...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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    Last edited by robo; 12-09-2021 at 10:52 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2659

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    More on Volatility for 2022. I don't really care what the markets do in 2022 since I trade both ways. However, I will just trade the current trend, but I too will probably get whipsawed more in 2022.

    Proceed with caution’: here’s what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022
    Last Updated: Dec. 9, 2021 at 10:06 a.m. ET
    First Published: Dec. 8, 2021 at 12:55 p.m. ET

    The CBOE Volatility Index VX00, -7.37%, or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pr...54?mod=markets
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2660

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Amazing how little it takes to the downside to make markets "oversold" nowadays. Based on that chart from sentimentrader, there haven't been too many periods as "oversold as this, but I guess that's a testament to how generous this market has been to those taking bullish bets - unless you've taken bullish bets on anything ARKK this year.

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  17. #2661

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Amazing how little it takes to the downside to make markets "oversold" nowadays. Based on that chart from sentimentrader, there haven't been too many periods as "oversold as this, but I guess that's a testament to how generous this market has been to those taking bullish bets - unless you've taken bullish bets on anything ARKK this year.
    That is why I went to trend trading Brother. Indexes can stay at extremes (oversold or overbought) for longer then most can hold on.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #2662

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Headed to Another ATH or a lower high..... Sorry, I don't know so we shall see how it plays out. Day 5 since moving above the 3 ema which I use for ST trading.

    bottom Line: SPY remains in an uptrend. However, I'm currently flat again.

    Stocks are running into resistance at the previous breakout level.

    The initial surge out of the DCL caused stocks to get a bit extended above the 10 day MA. The 10 day MA is beginning to flatten out. Stocks will need to get the 10 day MA to turn higher before the rally out of the DCL can gain any traction.

    Stocks are heading into the most bullish time of the year. If stocks can quickly breakout above the all-time high of 4743.83, that could trigger a melt-up phase.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...to-resistance/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2663

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Adding shares of the miners..... Waiting to see how the weekly support levels do. There are times I use the weekly data for MT positions. Hard to see the weekly chart with so many indexes on the chart, so a closer look at some of these indexes. We shall see what the COT looks like after the close today.
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    Last edited by robo; 12-10-2021 at 12:49 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2664

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL..... I sure like (ST = short term) trading the VIX...... I use VXX and would NOT recommend most trying to trade it. If you do.....keep it small..... Te VIX smashers are always at work!

    The epic volatility crash

    SPX - ready for the vol puke 2.0?

    SPX is trading at all time high close levels...and VIX is just shy of 20. The latest market rout is still feeding through the system, and as we all now, vols react with a lag. Our "optimal" set up continues developing. Let's see when you should cover the short vol VIX guy trade, and possibly even reverse that into a long vol pre Fed (depending on vol levels).
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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