Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

SPY daily: Tom covered the market nicely in his recent comments.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up and we just hit another ATH..... LOL.....again!

Biden picks Jerome Powell to lead the Fed for a second term as the U.S. battles Covid and inflation
PUBLISHED MON, NOV 22 20219:00 AM ESTUPDATED 7 MIN AGO

KEY POINTS

President Joe Biden announced Monday that he is renominating Jerome Powell for a second term as Federal Reserve chair and will put forth Fed Governor Lael Brainard as vice chairman.

The move comes after weeks of speculation that Brainard might get the nod.

In making the move, Biden praised Powell for “decisive” leadership during the Covid crisis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/22/bide...inflation.html

EXTREMES: Continue to get more extreme! With that said, the trend remains up.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

Interim Comment: November 21, 2021
Well, on Friday, November 19, we hit the motherlode. Across four decades of work in the financial markets, and over a century of historical data, I’ve never observed as many historical indications of a market peak occurring simultaneously. Noise reduction is always a process of drawing a common signal from multiple, partially correlated sensors, even if each individual sensor might be imperfect. The reason that we follow boatloads of these syndromes is the same reason we base our gauge of market internals on thousands of securities – uniformity conveys information.

Here and now, market conditions are characterized by:

The most extreme valuations in U.S. history, on the measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns over the past century, and even in recent decades, coupled with lopsided bullish sentiment and historic levels of margin leverage;

Deterioration and divergence across measures of market internals that we believe to be reliable gauges of investor psychology toward speculation versus risk-aversion;

The largest preponderance of overextended syndromes – typically associated with intermediate or cyclical market peaks – that we’ve ever observed in history.

Not a forecast. Not a “limit.” Not a market call. Just sharing what we’re seeing.

Still, it’s fair to add that we’ve never seen such a thing.


https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211120/

Negative Breadth Rally - I be watching this, but this market just keeps grinding higher.

SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
·
2m
1:30

Negative Breadth Rally Producing Record New Lows At Any ATH SPX
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

No puts no problem?

Put call ratio at lowest levels in a long time. Do we see another put puke as markets print new highs?

If this continues higher or not is to be seen, but one thing is sure, puts are hated and people tend to hate them when they should love them...
https://themarketear.com/

Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Monday.

Monday was day 35 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday's bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing high. A break below 4682.94 will form a swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks should go on to break below the day 27 low in order to complete its daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...sh-reversal-3/

VTI daily: A gap down below the 20 sma on the daily.... Watching to see if buyers come in. Day 3 since the sell signal.

Sold my VXX/VTI hedge and might buy some SDS. I will wait on the next VTI buy signal.

30 minute data: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...3&a=1051700172

Are rates going up next year? It depends on who you ask....

Opinion: How one rate hike by a small African nation could derail Powell’s Fed inflation-fighting plans and sink stocks
Last Updated: Nov. 23, 2021 at 1:05 p.m. ET
First Published: Nov. 22, 2021 at 6:51 p.m. ET
The Federal Reserve is beginning the first phase of its very gentle, very conditional, very cautious path to stimulus removal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, just nominated for a second term at the helm of the U.S. central bank, is intent on pushing back against any speculation about thinking about talking about rate hikes.

But around the rest of the world, something quite different is going on in the halls of central monetary authorities from Latin America to Eastern Europe, Africa, and lately even some developed-market countries.

Back in January 2021 I tweeted half-jokingly, half-seriously that a 300 basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Mozambique was a “Sign of things to come…”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...?mod=home-page

VTI daily: A close above the 20 sma as BTDer's came in, but a tad short of the 10 sma...... We shall see how it plays out.....

Hedge Funds usually trade together.

The Biggest Bubble Of All Time

Nov. 19, 2021 12:07 PM ETAAPL, AMZN, AR,ARKK,CRM,CVX,DIA,EOG,EQT,FB,GDX,GOOG,GOOGL,MSFT ,NDAQ,NFLX,PTON,QQQ,RRC,SD,SP500,SPY,TSLA,XLE,XME, XOM,XOP,Z,ZG456 Comments134 Likes


Summary
We have become numb to the magnitude of the bubble today.

When the tide goes out, there's going to be a reckoning, with the pendulum swinging to the other extreme.

Be prepared for the aftermath of this bubble by planning now.

The unwind can take many paths, however, a repeat of a market running in place for a decade, like it did from 1968-1982, or post 2000 is the template.

This will create a golden age for active investing. Thus, now more than ever, it's imperative to own the undervalued assets today, and where these reside might be surprising to many investors.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Contrarian. Learn More »
https://seekingalpha.com/article/447...le-of-all-time

An Overvalued, Overbought & Overleveraged Stock Market While The Fed Tightens, What Could Go Wrong?

Nov. 19, 2021 1:50 PM ETAAPL, ARKK, BRK.A,BRK.B,F,F.PB,GOOG,GOOGL,LSXMA,LSXMB,LSXMK,MP ,MSFT,QQQ,SOXX,SPWR,SPX,SPY,TAN,VFFSX,VFIAX,VFINX, VOO76
Summary

Stock market valuations and the Buffett valuation indicator are at historic highs.

411 of 500 S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average.

The weekly RSI on SPY is overbought again just like before September mini-correction, this time the monthly RSI is overbought too, like 1999, 2007, 2013, 2018 and 2020.

Leverage and call option volume are at all-time highs as well.

Meanwhile, the Fed and Treasury are reducing liquidity.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Margin of Safety Investing. Learn More »
https://seekingalpha.com/article/447...could-go-wrong

VTI weekly: Vanguard's index for the Total Stock Market and the index I'm currently trading. Remains in a uptrend, but testing the 3 ema on the weekly chart. Still a hold long positions, but we shall see how we close this week. One would have to give the Bulls/Buyers the edge.


VXF weekly: Vanguard's index that is close to the S Fund. Back testing the Feb high again. It the pattern holds we are moving down closer to the lower BB. However, that will be up to the buyers as we are in the best 6 months for buying stocks. LOL..... I don't use any of that data for trading. For me VXF remains in a cash position. I just trade the signals based on what is happening and not what I think will happen. Yes, I do get whipsawed, but that is all part of trading. Moves below the 20 sma on the weekly have been a good time to BTD for a trade if you trade the VXF index. I use to trade it often, but not these days. We shall see how this move plays out and I will stick with trading VTI.

For the record: I trade using the daily charts.

Things look much different on the daily charts, but much harder to move TSP funds using a daily chart. I like the weekly data for TSP funds.