Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Welcome extreme greed
From extreme fear to extreme greed.

Markets don't crash on fear. Let's see if we can get even more extreme greed from here?

https://themarketear.com/

The everything ATH market
Freshly updated Fed balance sheet and the SPX.

Is SPX getting a bit ahead of itself, or is seasonality the only thing to care about?

MOVE refuses easing much
Bond volatility stays at elevated levels. The gap vs VIX remains wide, but note it actually managed shrinking small today as equity protection stayed relatively well bid...despite equities squeezing higher.

VIX daily: Still watching the pattern after moving below 15ish.

NAAIM weekly updated chart: RSI5 = 97.65 / NAAIM increased to 107.99

Keep in mind:

NAAIM Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members.

The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses.

It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future. The primary goal of most active managers is to manage the risk/reward relationship of the stock market and to stay in tune with what the market is doing at any given time. As the name indicates, the NAAIM Exposure Index provides insight into the actual adjustments active risk managers have made to client accounts over the past two weeks. We shall see how the TSP poll plays out.



https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

LOL..... Not that any of this data even matters any more:

Bottom Line: The trend remains up!

Some monthly data to look over: The first chart was hard to read so I split it up so you can see it better. The point is folks have NO FEAR as we head into November and the next best months for being long stocks. Unless we are heading into another 1929..... LOL I know, NO WAY.

LOL.... No way this is 1929.... That is true. This is 2021, BUT this market is in a bigger bubble then the 1929 Bubble. Not that most even care.

Bottom Line: The Trend remains up and the monthly is tracking nicely above the 10 sma on the monthly chart. Where folks get into trouble is buying to early after the first sell signal. Bid you buy to early and to much during the last 40% sell off. One should wait for the turn on the weekly..... I like to wait for a move back above the 3 ema on the weekly chart using VTI. However, that is how my system works and there are many others and I'm sure some are better. I use the KISS system. I really don't care if the market goes down since I trade both ways, but I still think the current market is more overvalued then 1929 market. There are other extreme indicators that all should be watching right now, but I doubt many are.

I make NO predictions about the future and for NOW my system remains on a hold long positions, but at a reduce position size.

A note from Kaplan about one of the extreme indicators he tracks.

It's going to be a long road down.


Recent U.S. fund inflows have been approaching or surpassing their highest-ever levels and that's by 2021 standards where we have had more intense inflows during the past 12-month period than the entire previous 50 years combined according to my calculations; I am looking for a reliable source to verify this data. Mega-cap index funds like QQQ are nearly at four times fair value according to their earnings and projected profit growth.


True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian

14h
we have had more intense inflows into the market during the past 12-month period than the entire previous 50 YEARS COMBINED according to my calculations; I am looking for a reliable source to verify this data.
https://twitter.com/TrueContrarian?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

VTI daily ( The Total Stock Market): Another gap up as we just started "Free Lunch Friday" as we head into the best 6 months.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up and this has been a very nice run.

SPY daily: Remains in a uptrend!

Remember puts?
Put hate is becoming stronger each day. The upside crash is the new crash people are "hedging".

Let's see how this plays out from here, but such extreme put hate should be noted...especially as it truly feels we can never go down again.

Bullish or bearish, but make sure to watch this one...
NASDAQ in full melt up mode and NASDAQ vol, VXN, rising as well. Add to it the fact it is a Friday and you understand how well bid protection is.

Make sure to watch this "relationship" carefully.

Last time we saw similar behavior was during the late stage of the 2020 summer tech squeeze just before the sector tanked. This time things aren't as extreme, but watch VXN closely anyway.
https://themarketear.com/

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
So, "smart money" hedgers have made some big moves, very quickly.

They're now net short about $79 billion worth of major equity index futures, a record.

And they're long more than 600,000 contracts in 10-year Treasuries, the most in 3 years.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/s...eid=5b348a9ca0

Latest COT report: A couple of things I watch. Hmmmm......

The 11/06/21 Weekend Report Preview


Stocks continued higher on this week.

The new high on day 24 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The decline into the ICL stretched the ‘elastic band’ lower. Stocks are delivering bullish follow through on the breakout of the 4545.85 level. This could trigger a melt-up phase. I suspect that a daily cycle decline will back test the breakout level before the we see the melt-up phase.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/

VTI and SPY daily: The trend remains up.....