VTI daily (The Total Stock Market) VTI is currently my preferred index to trade at Vanguard. If you BTD when VTI tagged the 50 dma and added when we hit the 100 dma, you be a happy camper today! https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VT...8&a=1026100062
****** UPDATE******** A ST trading comment: If you bought using leverage when we tagged the 100 dma it's time to reduce some in my opinion. I have traded both SSO and SDS since the VTI $234.65 marker printed 15 days ago.
Last edited by robo; 09-23-2021 at 12:25 PM.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
SPY daily: Getting ready for "Free Lunch Friday" and "Easy Money Monday" now that we have a confirmed DCL.... Now will this DCL turn out to be a LT cycle? We shall see....
I have to agree with Tom: This has been and remains a market that one just has to hold your nose and BTD's. We could still see a sight pullback and a gap fill, but one would think it will be bought quickly. ( See chart 3 SPY daily)
Waiting to see how this daily cycle plays out!
SPY weekly: (Chart 1) A tag of the 20 wma has been a good place to buy during this nothing maters run. The SPY is trying to get back above the 10 wma for Free Lunch Friday. The Bulls will want a close above the 10 wma going into next week.
VTI monthly: ( Chart 2) When will get the next YCL? During normal times we would normally tag the 20 mma during a YCL. Waiting to see how it plays out. "SO MUCH" for this being normal times"
""So much for the most bearish seasonal week of the year. So much for a post expiration week sell off. So much for Evergrande defaulting on their nine digit debt. So much for a test of the lows. So much for resistance at the 50-day EMA and the top of the open gap. So much for a 10% to 20% correction, although we did finally see a 5% pullback from the recent high to low. So much for investors being nervous before the debt ceiling gets hit. So much for a Fed who was expected to announce a date for tapering their bond buying program.""
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Yes Sir: A new daily cycle..... The Bulls - Will be back to the Bubble Talk and Melt up..... The Bears will... Well, whatever they do....
LOL..... Remember all the talk about the "Jaws of Death" in 2020...... (Well, see the last chart)
Stocks Confirm New Daily Cycle
Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday.
Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by closing above the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA to confirm the new daily cycle. Stocks should go on to break above the declining trend line as they rally out of their DCL.
It is quite likely that Monday was not only the DCL but the intermediate cycle low (ICL) as well. And if stocks can quickly break out to new highs then that may trigger a final melt up.
Yes Sir: It has been pretty wild trading VXX...... Not recommend for most traders. Not the first time I have posted an article about the VIX.
VXX/SPY 2 hour trading chart: It's been wild ST trading these two this week.... VXX looks to be moving back down under $25.00ish
(Chart 2)
VIX - the master of frustration
The VIX round trip Evergrande move has now been completed.
VIX is trading well below Friday's close at the moment, currently printing 18.77!
Needless to say, this has produced huge p/l pain, as the crowd managed loading up on protection at too elevated levels once again and are now puking all those hedges...
We stick with our general logic on protection:
Buy protection when you can, not when you must.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
The crowd continues to love puts at local market lows
Max hedge frustration continues. The crowd continues to load up on puts at local market lows. Nothing new, but the feedback loop of "hedges only cost money" is getting reinforced by every time the same frustration occurs.
Earlier conversation with a PM today can basically be concluded with him asking "..why even buy hedges". https://themarketear.com/
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
"Consistent capitulation volume on SPX. Maybe I should quit wasting my time with the metals."
I still like to trade the metals/miners, but keep it much smaller these days. For the last year it has been much easier to trend trade the stock indexes. After a nice bounce for the SPY the last few days I'm waiting to see if we pullback some and maybe BT the 50 dma or fill the gap. Probably many will add if that happens based on the cycle data.
(Chart 1)
I'm still long some SLV and bought a small tranche of GDX back yesterday.
Chart 2 and 3)
I'm still ST trading GDX (Buying and selling quickly) after the lower BB tag. I still think we will see a move back up to the upper BB soon..... LOL.... That is just a guess, and when ST trading anything can happen. That's what stops are for. So, I'm back to my pair trade again.
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Last edited by robo; 09-24-2021 at 07:55 AM.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
SLV/UUP daily: UUP on the move and smacking down my SLV ST trade. I have a stop @ $20.25, and it looks like we will test the the $20.52 marker this morning. We shall see if buyers come in.... Keep in mind it's Free Lunch Friday so the dippers should be buying stocks this morning.
Added a tranche of AGQ for a day trade after SLV undercut the $20.52 marker.... We shall see how it plays out, but I will not be holding the AGQ position over the weekend.
China Evergrande Group missed the deadline to pay its $83.5 million in coupon payment on dollar bonds with a face value of $2.03 billion to global investors, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday. However, the report noted that the bondholders didn't receive any money and now a 30-day grace period is in effect, with Evergrande still being able to deliver on its payments, after which bondholders can call a default.
I bought GDX this morning because the chart looks close to making a low and sold it for a small profit because of the ugly weekly candle. Also dollar stuck at the 200 WMA. Gold will get smoked if it breaks through.
Time for bargain hunting protection - VIX guy just called us
Our biggest contra indicator when it comes to volatility is the "VIX guy". So far he has had a 100% rock solid track record, the inverted way.
Latest reasoning is that Evergrande isn't a problem anymore, Fed uncertainty is gone and corona isn't an issue anymore. He basically explained that the vol event of this week was a one off and that vols and VIX should drift lower for longer from here.
Needless to say, given his 100% inverted track record, the long vol play is suddenly becoming more interesting in our view.
We have been hoping for VIX to come down and we set this Friday as the "hopefully" long VIX day earlier this week.
VIX is well below last Friday's close and has crashed since Monday's 28.79 intra day highs.
VIX is not dirt cheap, but given the sharp move lower, and the fact VVIX has come down quickly as well, we are eager to try some VIX longs going into the weekend.
VIX overreacted during the sell off but has been the relatively more exuberant during the bounce. Despite VIX at Thursday's lows, Spoos is still some 25-30 handles lower (chart 2).
Outright long VIX and/or use it to hedge longs makes a lot of short term sense here.
The entire China situation remains "fluid" and could provide more vol shocks, as well as there are other market risks to consider.
Third chart shows the VIX term structure on Monday and today. From panic buying short end of the curve to puking it. Why not play the contrarian view to finish off the week?
The VIX guy has spoken...
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
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