Page 189 of 332 FirstFirst ... 89139179187188189190191199239289 ... LastLast
Results 2,257 to 2,268 of 3983

Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2257

    Exclamation Evergrande

    Chinese REIT's are plunging.

    china reit.jpg

    Evergrande fear porn from Stephen Van Metre (he might be right someday).



    P.S. Shipping container rates are rising (esp. from Asia).

    containers.png
    Last edited by redbrian; 09-15-2021 at 06:21 PM.

  2.  
  3. #2258

    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Texas, USA
    Posts
    4,879

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI daily: The pattern looks to repeat...... AGAIN! We shall see how it plays out.....

    VTI weekly: The weekly trend remains up until it's NOT! Still trending above the 10 wma......
    Attached Images Attached Images
    • File Type: png a.png (29.1 KB, 49 views)
    • File Type: png a.png (28.8 KB, 48 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  4.  
  5. #2259

    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Texas, USA
    Posts
    4,879

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX weekly: Testing the $30.60ish support level. Will it hold? Some buyers did come in so we shall see how we close... The dollar be on the move! Flight to SAFETY? Maybe.....
    SLV weekly:

    Bottom Line: SLV and GDX remain under their 10wma and in a downtrend. These two are on my buy list... LOL.... Timing is everything in this sector.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    • File Type: png a.png (59.9 KB, 49 views)
    • File Type: png a.png (34.0 KB, 47 views)
    Last edited by robo; 09-16-2021 at 09:30 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


  6.  
  7. #2260

    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Texas, USA
    Posts
    4,879

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX and SLV daily charts: I bought some of both very close to the lows today. Comments on the GDX chart.....

    DCL: Only possible for now, and I'm waiting on a weekly buy signal before putting my entire 10% position to work.

    GDX stopped from moving above the 10 wma again..... Sorry, but my magic 8 ball is broke, so I will have to wait for a confirmed weekly buy signal.

    Good trading if you are trading the metals/miners.....

    GLD daily: We shall see how it plays out..... No help from the 8 ball and the dollar be on the move!
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by robo; 09-16-2021 at 12:12 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  8.  
  9. #2261

    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Texas, USA
    Posts
    4,879

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Long GDX and SLV for a trade. Checked into the old site I use to post at, and as usually useless info if you are trading the miners. Someone posted gold is down today, and some other comments from the gap guy. I normally don't even read comments from him, but thought he might have something useful ( A gold nugget) to look over. No such luck.... This is why I trend trade the miners now, and use cycles. The rest to me is just noise. I wasted lots of time posting over there to folks that use tools I sure don't use. I'm not saying they don't make money, but you never know since they don't post their trades. Some folks just post their market thoughts , which is fine. However, I like to track folks that have skin in the game. LOL.... Yeah, I use the KISS system and post my trades in real-time. That doesn't mean this trade will be a winner, but at least I post my trades based on the data/tools I use. All I can say is this trade has better then average odds for making some money. We shall see if it keeps moving lower into the FOMC meeting.

    Bottom Line : Long GDX and SVL for a ST trade - Win, lose or Draw..... This could turn into a MT trade, "IF" I get a weekly buy signal in the days ahead.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    • File Type: png a.png (36.5 KB, 42 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #2262

    Post GDX

    Took a quick look at the charts to see if I wanted to join you. Dollar broke out. GDX broke previous low. Large candle. Would like to see a lower low for an easier swing and better technicals.

    dw.jpg

    TSI not there yet either.

    tsi.PNG

    Gold DCL due in three weeks. Seems too long. Maybe a real low on FOMC next Wednesday?

    cycles.PNG

    P.S. New PNG settings make them much sharper than JPG's.
    Last edited by redbrian; 09-16-2021 at 01:31 PM.

  12.  
  13. #2263

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    GDX and SLV daily charts: I bought some of both very close to the lows today. Comments on the GDX chart.....
    Gold just broke down out of a bear flag, so I'm not too sure about being long the gold miners. Looks like a nasty head and shoulders on redbrians' weekly GDX chart.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #2264

    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Texas, USA
    Posts
    4,879

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Gold just broke down out of a bear flag, so I'm not too sure about being long the gold miners. Looks like a nasty head and shoulders on redbrians' weekly GDX chart.
    Very possible Tom...... I like to take a ST trade using the daily charts when I see support levels being tested, and lower BB tags. I can see all 3 indicators I like to use for ST trading on the GDX daily chart below. All 3 are currently in play which increases my odds for a ST winning trade.

    A "POSSIBLE" DCL, a lower BB tag and the current support level being tested. ($30.00ish) We shall see if it's a winner in the days ahead. I will wait for the MT buy signal for adding to this trade. So far I like the set-up for a ST trade on the GDX daily chart.

    Chart 1 - GDX daily: Used for ST trading

    Chart 2 - GDX weekly: Used for MT trading

    For the record: (ST) means ST trading and I could sell these positions tomorrow. I still have NO BUY SIGNAL for MT positions for trading the miners more then days. I need to see an ICL/Weekly cycle low for that.

    Chart 3 - $GOLD chart with possible cycle data...... We shall see how it plays out. This sector is like "NO OTHER" trying to trade it. Why do I always say we shall see? Because the out come can NEVER be KNOWN FOR SURE!
    Attached Images Attached Images
    • File Type: png a.png (38.2 KB, 46 views)
    • File Type: png a.png (25.0 KB, 48 views)
    Last edited by robo; 09-16-2021 at 02:49 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  16.  
  17. #2265

    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Texas, USA
    Posts
    4,879

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Chart 3 - $GOLD daily

    Chart 4 - GLD daily

    Chart 5 - $Gold weekly We could still come down and test the lows or a higher low. We shall see.....
    Attached Images Attached Images
    • File Type: png a.png (37.6 KB, 51 views)
    • File Type: png a.png (35.8 KB, 49 views)
    • File Type: png a.png (25.9 KB, 49 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  18.  
  19. #2266

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,876
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Gold just broke down out of a bear flag, so I'm not too sure about being long the gold miners. Looks like a nasty head and shoulders on redbrians' weekly GDX chart.

    I'm not a fan of very long term chart patterns, but since 2012, GLD has been making a cup base with a handle beginning in July 2020. That handle/bull flag pattern is still intact on a long term chart. Still work that needs to be done, but upside could be 220 on the initial break.

    gld ch.png

  20.  
  21. #2267

    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Texas, USA
    Posts
    4,879

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    LOL...... Yes Sir!

    What is SPX doing down here?
    Freshly updated Fed BS showing a "break out" to the upside.

    Bit of chart crime, but a good reminder of what is the biggest driver of assets.

    Can SPX afford to "lag" mighty Fed?
    https://themarketear.com/

    How S&P500 will say "hello" to >5.000. The 9 reasons why we soon trade north of that magic level
    The strategists at JPM is not having enough of this bull market and sees it to continue into year end and well beyond. Here are 9 bull points why you should keep on buying. ç

    1. The recent slowdown is temporary and primarily driven by the Delta variant. "We see these risks as well-flagged and in some cases overdone".

    2. cross-border activity has the potential to more meaningfully rebound for the first time since the onset of the pandemic

    3. Central bank policies should remain growth-oriented

    4. China’s slowdown YTD is likely to be countered soon with a policy pivot.

    5. low probability of significant corporate tax policy change

    6. periods of significant market weakness are likely to get dampened by accelerated buyback programs (current daily buyback run-rate is at ~$3.5 billion and rising) and positive retail flows given “excess” savings

    7. the inventory (~25 year lows) and capex cycles (post-GFC low), while not tracking their usual cyclical behavior, are still in early innings with ample room to drive growth

    8. The state of the US Consumer is super strong. JPM thinks the market underestimates the robustness of consumer balance sheets and more pointedly the savings war chest in place to support future spending. "The cumulative “excess” savings for consumers since onset of Covid (2/2020) is at $2.4T excluding the likely boost from rising asset values"

    9. Consensus is currently assuming a very conservative earnings compression of -1.3% for 2H21 compared to 1H21 (seasonally demand has been much stronger during 2H compared to 1H in the US). "In our view, the street estimates do not fully account for this seasonality and the cumulative effect of ongoing global re-opening with rising mobility as Covid eases, expanding labor market with wage gains, higher operating margin and falling interest expense, and reduction in share count from buybacks"

    JPM are raising their EPS estimates from $205 to $210 for 2021 (consensus at $201.03) and from $230 to $240 for 2022 (consensus at $220.35), as well as slightly increasing 2021 year-end S&P 500 price target to 4,700 and sees >5000 in 2022.
    https://themarketear.com/
    Attached Images Attached Images
    • File Type: png a.png (42.9 KB, 53 views)
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  22.  
  23. #2268

    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Texas, USA
    Posts
    4,879

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Bulls are gone - (Chart 1)
    Latest AAII bullish sentiment reading shows a huge drop in bulls. Lowest since last summer, and we all know market hates crashing when bulls are gone...



    Bears are many - (Chart 2)
    Latest AAII bearish sentiment reading shows a huge pick up in bears. Imagine how bearish the crowd became with SPX moving lower by less than 2% from all time highs.

    Is the biggest pain trade the upside still, where every bull needs to give up?

    My chart: Compare the 2020 numbers just before a 40% correction to the 2021 numbers. In my opinion this data CAN NOT be used for trading! (Note how close the current numbers are to the 2020 numbers.)
    Attached Images Attached Images
    • File Type: png a.png (29.9 KB, 55 views)
    • File Type: png a.png (40.4 KB, 55 views)
    • File Type: jpg a.jpg (149.5 KB, 60 views)
    Last edited by robo; 09-16-2021 at 07:42 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


  24.  
Page 189 of 332 FirstFirst ... 89139179187188189190191199239289 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes