Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

SPY daily cycle: So next week the DCL will be in and the move up will continue. Sounds good to me..... The pattern does indicate that. Unless, we move lower into a weekly cycle low and an ICL. We shall see if this turns out to be a failed daily cycle..... I'm long some SDS for a trade.

I will be watching this...... Second chart is a closer look. Friday was day 5 for the move down. These moves down, based on the 2021 pattern have only been around 4 or 5 days.

The peak on day 10 sets stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. At 27 weeks, stocks are deep in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 4367.73 will form a failed daily cycle to confirm the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/

Hmmmm..... Maybe the move down is over for the SPY.... LOL.... It already went 5 days and normally only goes 3 or 4. What's up with that!

(First Chart below) - The close up of the 5 days can be seen above.

Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader
·
Sep 10
Look where they closed the week on $SPY and the $VIX at the same time. Amazing.
I've not touched or adjusted these trend lines.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader


They sure did! Why not..... It be "Easy Money Monday" but they didn't get "Free Lunch Friday" A possible nice gap up for Monday.... It's also OPTX week.....

https://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

(Second Chart)

thomas
@VolumeDynamics


19h
While the CASH $SPX looked awful on Friday... take a look at the $ES Futures market... they BTFD, didn't they? That is MONSTER VOLUME under it ... HUGE!!

11:10 - GDX volume target at $28.

My take: Friday was day 5 of this move down, and we normally bounce from here - "IF" this is a normal DCL, and the pattern continues. Buyers and price create these patterns. So I wait.....

Bottom Line: SPY is below the 10 and 20 dma and is making lower highs. That could change next week based on the pattern on my chart below.

One of the guys I still track at Traders-Talk

Risk Windows for the Week of September 13th
Started by Douglas , Yesterday, 02:34 PM
According to my risk summation system, the day this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Friday September 17th. Tuesday September 14th has a very low number of risk turns. As I've noted in the past, for some strange reason days with very low values also have marked turns, so it probably should be added to the risk window list for the week.


Last week's Tuesday risk window marked a sharp turn down in the DJIA, and the Friday risk window may have marked a low or an acceleration down day depending on the action this coming Monday the 13th.


My trading system started screaming buy this past Friday. I've had to substantially fudge the calculations in the trading system in this relentless bull run to prevent missing the quick reversals from any even slightly oversold condition. I am fully aware that this over-optimization is going to bite me in the rear end whenever a real down trend sets in, so I see the action which will take place this coming week as a real test of this fiddling that I have done. My gut tells me that the chickens may finally be coming home to roost for my calculation manipulation sins.


Regards,

Douglas

https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...eptember-13th/

Maladaptive Beliefs


John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

September 2021

An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative. The distinction between investment and speculation in common stocks has always been a useful one and its disappearance is a cause for concern. In most periods the investor must recognize the existence of a speculative factor in his common stock holdings. It is his task to keep this component within minor limits, and to be prepared financially and psychologically for adverse results that may be of short or long duration.

There is intelligent speculation as there is intelligent investing. But there are many ways in which speculation may be unintelligent. Of these the foremost are: (1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.

– Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor


The question isn’t whether one should adapt to unprecedented Fed policies, but instead, the form those adaptations should take. It is unimaginable that investors have swallowed the premise of ‘Fed support’ whole. Investors seem convinced that the Fed has removed downside risk from the market. Instead, we are fully convinced that these historic valuation extremes have removed decades of investment returns from the future, and strongly suspect that the Fed has amplified future downside risk as well.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210912/

EQX daily: A nice bounce after tagging the 50 dma..... I will take profits before the close.
GDX weekly: Nothing has been confirmed on the weekly chart yet..... I'm only ST trading the miners right now.

SPY daily: Having some trouble (Not enough buyers) and it remains below its 10 dma..... This might be day 6 of the move down, but we have to wait and see how it closes..... Still holding some SDS..... I'm sure the gap up this morning stopped out a few of the shorts..... LOL.... The SPY never goes down 6 days in a row ( see 2021 SPY pattern on charts below)..... What the heck is the Fed doing? There is still time to save the day. Day 6 should be an UP DAY!

SPY daily after the close Chart 1) The Bulls did manage to close the SPY in the green, but far from my next buy signal. If you bought the low today it could turn out your going to be one happy camper in the days ahead.

Bottom Line: The SPY remains below its 10 and 20 dma's.....

Chart 2
Who will not buy the next dip?
The way this is trading, it seems everybody will want to buy the next dip...

Spoos bouncing on the longer term trend line again, and the dips are becoming shorter and shorter.

Complex psychology becoming even more extreme.

Note the move in VIX, down 7.5% on a Monday just shows you how big the move was late last week. As we explained over the weekend; "...since SKEW remains steep even relatively small moves in Spoos will "translate" into spiky VIX moves".

Let's see how this plays out going forward, but the Pavlovian investor is getting increasingly confident...
https://themarketear.com/

(Chart 3)

Shitty breadth (I)
Not many 52 week highs in this market. It is actually less than 1% of companies in the S&P 500 that trade at 52 week highs. The 5 day average is at lowest since Feb this year.


(Chart 4)

A Plunge in Global Stock Market Trends

Jason Goepfert
Published: 2021-09-13 at 0700 CDT
Fewer countries are in medium-term uptrends, and that's a warning shot for stocks.

The percentage of country equity indexes trading above their 50-day moving average registered a sharp reversal lower over only a couple of sessions late last week. According to our calculations, positive trends plunged from 90% to below 60%.
Over the past 30+ years, there have been 17 other times when the percentage of countries trading above their 50-day average goes from >= 90% to <=60% in two days or less.

For the MSCI ACWI World Index ex USA index, future returns were weak on a short to intermediate-term basis, especially over the next 1-2 weeks.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...7de-1271291994

We shall see how it plays out!

xTrends
@xtrends

5h
This message for those who went long Friday because SPX printed 5 consecutive down days, today could be 6 and tomorrow, the 7th one may be the last one but 10 times bigger than the sum of all down days (May 6 2010)

CPI will be out tomorrow morning....
https://twitter.com/xtrends?ref_src=...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

It sure looks like a half cycle low, but needs to get back above the 10 dma....

Half Cycle Low
Stocks rallied on Monday. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. And we would label day 16 as a half cycle low.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...f-cycle-low-2/