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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2221

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    And to think it was only two weeks ago he was talking about the bullish breadth thrust.
    Well, you know why I trade the trend these days Brother..... We shall see if the Bulls can close the SPY back above the 10 dma today. Some BTD folks have already placed their bet, and are probably thinking that will be easy Money! Maybe it will be....

    Some traders are still concerned about an ICL happening in September. I'm sure watching it.... I'm staying nimble and trading smaller when going long. A move back down to the 50 dma is getting closer based on the pattern on my SPY daily chart. LOL.... IF it repeats, and I think it will.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #2222

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Next Friday the seasonality chart gets as bad, or worse, as any other time during the year...


    Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #2223

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Tom,

    I sure would not be holding large long positions this late in the cycle. However, I’m close to 70 and my risk management data is much different then someone much younger. This month would be a good one for an ICL. October can also have some fire works so that is one to watch too. We might just get a COVID bounce soon with many folks now being required to get the shot. The question is will it be more then a 5% pullback if we get the ICL this month? The pattern indicates the BTD folks will come in anytime we get close to the 50 dma. It will be fun to watch how it plays out because I current have no long positions using VTI. I use that fund at Vanguard.
    Last edited by robo; 09-10-2021 at 10:55 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #2224

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Some tweets....

    LOL..... The crooks at the Fed.....

    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels

    9m
    Dallas Fed Chief Kaplan must be really distressed over the drop in his AAPL stock today.

    Oh wait. I remember now...

    He sold AAPL and the rest of the FANG issues recently to reassure folks over ethics concerns... (First chart)


    xTrends
    @xtrends

    52m
    So there is still some desire to frontrun Fridays but I have a feeling this will completely change by the open of next Friday, to amputate whatever legs and arms traders have left during the contract rollover week
    Show this thread
    xTrends
    @xtrends

    52m
    So lets review what happened last Friday and today; last Fri was frontrun by traders on Thu, ES opened lower on Fri, lotto call buyers wiped out. Today was front run by traders in overnight session, ES opened higher and bears hammered from the get go lotto players got raped again


    Sven Henrich
    @NorthmanTrader

    Buy the dip and buy the rip.
    Quote Tweet
    Katie Martin
    @katie_martin_fx


    HSBC Asset Mgt: "Buy equities on a dip if you can, or buy them high. It doesn’t matter in the end."



    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    1h
    Well, well... what's this? (Second Chart)

    Total worldwide stock-market capitalization versus total global GDP has soared during the past thirteen years to an all-time peak: (Third chart)
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    Last edited by robo; 09-10-2021 at 01:11 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  8.  
  9. #2225

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    EQX daily: Looking for another trade....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #2226

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Guess those trading desks are still digesting the jobs report from last week.

    We've got an opening gap to fill at 4440-4450 area from August 23 right near that line in the sand, but we're going to have to wait until next week to happen.

    Also, VIX hit 20 for the third time after hitting two higher lows since July 6. Volatility is coming.

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  13. #2227

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: SPY moved below the 10 and 20 dma and this be day 5 of the move lower. Is this just a DCL or are we headed to a weekly cycle low? Traders should be very careful here BTD and wait for a confirmed DCL. Based on the current data this should be a grasshopper trade. However, BTD early hasn't mattered all year, and this could turn out to be the same as buying early in a Bull Market is ok. LOL..... NOT so much in a Bear Market or just before a correction - after months of being trained to BTD.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2228

    Post Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Evergrande got permission to renegotiate it's debt.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...bt-terms-video

    evergrande.jpg

    I guess the Kraken won't be released this week.

    kraken.jpg

    The dollar printed its lowest point on day 25, placing it in its timing band for a DCL.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/

    usd.png
    Looks like SPX will turn at the 50. Gold has a ways to go for a bottom.

    dw1.jpg

    dw2.jpg

    Sentiment and 200 DMA Percent is neutral for everything except SPX Percent (which is at a permanently high plateau).

    Markets.jpg

    SPX DCL due now. USD fishy. Could be a DCL now if August 1 was a half-cycle low. Gold DCL due next month.

    $cycles$.jpg

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  17. #2229

    Lightbulb Trading Crosses

    I got Buy and Hold plus Price/SMA/EMA trading crosses working for US stocks with a backtest engine. A buy occurs when the first line exceeds the second line and a sell occurs when the second line falls below the first line. A trade is a buy/sell pair.

    Here are the top 20 crosses for GDX. I graphed SMA 73/18 because it has fewer trades and the second best return. It also has some really bad trades. One would think that trying 144000 crosses would accidentally find a long-term trend indicator with a short-term trade indicator. I am suspicious of my math so will be checking my code when I have time.

    144781 GDX Crosses
    =================
    GDX.SMA.13xGDX.SMA.12 513% (12 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.73xGDX.SMA.18 425% (91 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.69xGDX.SMA.18 421% (96 days/trade)
    GDX.EMA.192xGDX.EMA.15 416% (120 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.68xGDX.SMA.17 415% (91 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.73xGDX.SMA.21 414% (98 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.67xGDX.SMA.18 408% (94 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.67xGDX.SMA.17 404% (96 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.72xGDX.SMA.21 403% (96 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.71xGDX.SMA.18 391% (96 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.72xGDX.SMA.18 389% (91 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.72xGDX.SMA.20 387% (96 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.74xGDX.SMA.21 384% (98 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.73xGDX.SMA.20 384% (98 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.74xGDX.SMA.17 382% (101 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.73xGDX.SMA.19 380% (96 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.75xGDX.SMA.17 378% (104 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.73xGDX.SMA.17 376% (96 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.39xGDX.EMA.36 375% (56 days/trade)
    GDX.SMA.79xGDX.SMA.17 373% (98 days/trade)

    save.jpg

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  19. #2230

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Miners weekly charts: I'm tracking the weekly data much closer now as I wait for the next weekly buy signal.

    GDX, GDXJ, HUI, and XAU Weekly charts: 13 weeks and all are trending down below the 10 wma....

    Bottom Line: Still NO weekly buy signal!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  20.  
  21. #2231

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Maybe it's looking bullish on the daily chart to Morris, but I'm only trading the weekly data right now. Show me a confirmed weekly buy signal before I get to excited. I'm still ST trading the daily chart too, and bought some shares Friday for a trade only. I'm staying away from posting my daily trades here because I make so many. I will be keeping with the MT positions in this sector (metals/miners) when I post here at TSPTalk.

    For the record: I take advice from "NONE" of these gold/miner guessers..... If the miners are below the 10 wma I'm normally flat. I have "NO FOR SURE" data that tells me what the miners will do next. I too can make a guess based on the chart and cycle data, but it would still be a guess. Charts to me are only for tracking the current trend and price action. That is why I just wait for confirmed signals and don't care about trying to pick bottoms in this sector based on a chart. Been there and done that. However, there are chart patterns I do ST trade, and some have a very high win rate. So those are high odd ST trades based on the patterns. Red points out some of these patterns above. I like this site because I don't have to put up with the gap guy and a few other folks from other sites talking about COVID shots, Masking etc.... Tom also has some very useful data here for the average trader/investor. So make your best guess on what the miners will do next, but I will be trading what I see happening in real-time and not what I think will happen. The trend is based on the price of buyers moving the sector higher. The reasons they are buying don't matter to me, and everything else is just noise.

    Bottom Line: The fact is, the miners remain in a weekly downtrend until they are not.

    Lots of opinions at the link below if you care to read them over.
    https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/g...s-us-labor-day

    Way to many political posts at 321 gold for me to read to much stuff on that site. I still follow a few folks that keep the post to the point. If I want to read political bullshit I can go to FOX or CNN and get lots of it. I will pass!

    Morris: Gold Stocks: Bullish But No Breakouts Yet

    I agree with Bob that this is NOT a time to be 100% long..... I don't know or care when this move up will stop since I'm trading both ways all the time as I wait for the next confirmed ICL for stocks.

    Dow 1929 Vs. Dow 2021?
    Bob Moriarty
    Archives
    Sep 11, 2021
    he DOW JONES Index peaked on September 3, 1929 at 381.17. It ran lower into October 24th, 1929 when the market plunged 11% on the open from the preceding day. We call that Black Thursday even though the market closed only slightly lower.

    The crash continued Monday October 26th when the Dow tumbled 13% and another 12% on Black Tuesday October 27th. The Great Depression had begun. The crash didn’t stop until July 8th, 1932 with the Dow down to 41.22, an incredible 89.2% drop.

    I think it is going to happen again.

    Soon.

    Very, very soon.

    For months I have been suggesting that I believe the bubble is going to burst and we would have tops in the Indexes from mid-August into September before declining into a crash in late October.

    So far, so good. The S&P peaked at 4545.85 on September 2nd. The DJI topped on August 16th at 35631.19. The Nasdaq high point was on September 7th at 15,403.44.

    Most investors today have never been through a real market crash and have no idea of what is coming. You cannot have the extremes that we have today without a full reset back to the norm. Since the market is more out of balance than it was in 1929 and 2000 I would not be surprised to see a market crash of similar dimensions, that is to say a 89-92% decline.
    Sep 11, 2021 Dow 1929 Vs. Dow 2021? Bob Moriarty 321gold

    Second Chart:
    https://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/def...090721-3_0.jpg
    https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/g...s-us-labor-day
    Summary
    To summarize, even though we saw a sizable upswing on Friday, it doesn’t seem that it changes anything with regard to the bearish medium-term trend on the precious metals market. The key breakdowns / breakdowns were either not invalidated (euro, USD Index, silver, GDXJ) or were invalidated in a way that’s suspicious / in tune with what happened during the powerful 2013 slide (GDX, HUI Index).

    And as silver often moves in close relation to the yellow metal, when gold falls, Silver is likely to decline as well – it has probably already started its slide. The times when gold is continuously trading well above the 2011 highs will come, but they are unlikely to be seen without being preceded by a sharp drop first.

    Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that it is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the outline of our trading strategy as gold moves lower.


    Thank you.

    Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
    Founder, Editor-in-chief
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    Last edited by robo; 09-11-2021 at 12:32 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2232

    Post Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)



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