Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Weekly COT SLV:

Thank you very much for the links. good ideas.

Be Prepared for Some Turbulence
Jeff Clark | May 24, 2021 | Market Minute | 2 min read
The dollar is setting up for a short-term bounce.

That won’t change the longer-term trajectory for the buck… Which is clearly bearish.

But, if you’re trading assets that tend to run counter to the dollar – like gold, silver, and most commodities – then be prepared for some short-term turbulence…

The dollar has fallen more than 3% over the past two months. That may not seem like much in an environment in which “meme stocks” move 20% in a day, and cryptocurrencies can rise and fall 50% in a week.

But, it’s an enormous move for a currency – especially for the world’s reserve currency.

And, that action has set the dollar up for an oversold bounce.

Take a look at this chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (USD)…
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...me-turbulence/

Ask yourself why? Some think it's because the dollar is about to bounce.

SPX daily: Easy money Monday is in play..... The rest of the week could be a tad tougher, but I will trade what is happening and not what I think will happen. A nice move back above the 20 dma.... A daily cycle low also remains in play.....

Originally Posted by robo

The rest of the week could be a tad tougher,

Pre-holiday weekend week as well. Could make things trickier.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Pre-holiday weekend week as well. Could make things trickier.

After easy money Monday is over, we can add to your comments, that the week after OPTX usually sees increased selling pressure too. The insiders continue to sell big time as the Fed continues to float the market. The trend is up again, but I will place some Beer Money short positions today...

VTI daily below: VTI is the total stock market which I like to use at Vanguard. So, is it going to be new high or a lower high and a failed daily cycle. We shall see, but for now the trend remains up! Trading the tags of the 50 dma remains a winner....

As you can see VTI has been moving sideways since April. Another lower high could send us back down to the 50 dma pretty darn quick.

Daily SPX: Cycle data

Bearish Pattern For Stocks Beginning to Emerge

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Thursday. They delivered bullish follow through on Monday, which caused the 10 day MA to begin to flatten. So we can label day 48 as the DCL.

During the advancing phase of the intermediate cycle, RSI 05 tends to get embedded in overbought as evidenced in early April. But notice as stocks broke out to a new highs in late April and early May those breakouts were followed by 2 quick bearish reversals in RSI. That could be an early warning that an emerging bearish RSI pattern is beginning to emerge.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...ing-to-emerge/

SPX daily: Waiting to see if we get a higher high or a lower high.....

Bottom Line: For now the trend remains up, and the start of a new daily cycle.

I'm seeing very positive seasonality this week. Today is a coin flip, but the rest of the month has high probabilities of positive closes.

seasons.JPG

A run to new highs off the double bottom is in the cards.

This is a little older but holiday specific. The holiday is the last day of the month this year.



source: Stock Market Sentiment Research - SentimenTrader