SPX daily cycle data: Waiting on the next buy signal.....
Stocks broke below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday.
Stocks are even deeper in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. Stocks continue to be in a daily uptrend. Therefore if stocks form their swing low above the lower daily cycle band then they will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.
Kaplan and his TLT trade...... I guess he will make some money someday. His average share cost is now around $148.00ish... LOL - I don't like fading the trend like he does..... I wait for confirmed signals to buy or sell..... TLT is in a downtrend again.... We shall see how low she goes this time.... Odds increasing for a bounce soon!
Last edited by robo; 05-12-2021 at 12:42 PM.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Thanks for the update. His short ideas in early 2021 were great (ZM, SMH, TSLA) but his cost basis does not appear to be very good there either unless he's averaged up since then.
Right now bonds are massively oversold and for a contrarian trade, I'd have to say there's nothing better out there since everyone "knows" hyperinflation is coming. Either way, the past two days have put things on hold a bit and the bullish case is now a double bottom. These days I use SCHR as my bond trade.
Thanks for the update. His short ideas in early 2021 were great (ZM, SMH, TSLA) but his cost basis does not appear to be very good there either unless he's averaged up since then.
Right now bonds are massively oversold and for a contrarian trade, I'd have to say there's nothing better out there since everyone "knows" hyperinflation is coming. Either way, the past two days have put things on hold a bit and the bullish case is now a double bottom. These days I use SCHR as my bond trade.
I bought some TLT today for a trade only. I took a 10% position of TLT in one of my Vanguard accounts. I also sold my VXX way to early again.... I will take a look at SCHR and add it to my tracking data.
Take Care!
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Death & Taxes: May 17th "Tax Day" dynamics
Goldman estimate that the realized capital gains from 2020 is the largest on record at $1.64 Trillion in US equities (excluding crypto). Roughly 15 million new online brokerage accounts were opened online last year. These are new investors and may not have estimated quarterly payments during a banner year for retail traders. There has been a rush google how to pay taxes and equal rush to sell what you own to pay 2020 gains? Retail YOLO is rolling over and raising cash from potentially “march 2020” gains.
As of 4/30/21, 110M taxes were filed for Tax year 2020. In 2019, there were 165M taxes filed. If I take current tax filings 110M over last year’s full filing figures of 165M, as of 4/30/21, only 66% or 2/3 of payments have been filed. https://themarketear.com/
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
SPY daily: So far the pattern continues..... BTFD after tagging the 50 dma remains a winner..... We shall see if the SPY can move back above the 20 dma or are we seeing a change in the pattern. I would guess for you, but I have to see a move back above the ma's to confirm a low and the start of a new cycle. It is looking good so far.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
SPY daily: Did we just see a daily cycle low? The test of the 10 dma be coming up next.
Daily Cycle Low
Posted on May 13, 2021
Did stocks print their daily cycle low on Wednesday?
Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 48. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. The daily cycle decline was stopped at support from the 50 day MA. And with stocks currently being in a daily uptrend, if stocks form a swing low above the upper daily cycle band then that will indicate that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A break above 4134.73 will for a daily swing low. Then a close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 48 as the DCL. https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...smoneystudies/
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Another "swift correction"? It seemed like a few days ago the world was ending.
S/T S&P 500 is knocking on the 61.8% retracement level at 4168. A push past that will challenge new highs. I think we'll see 4,300 by June.
A possible daily cycle low is in play here.... Looking good as the SPX is now moving above the 10 dma. Still a possible dead cat bounce, but looks good right now! You have to trade what is happening and not what you think will happen..... Looks like a buy signal be coming and the start of a new daily cycle for those that trade using that data. You know how I roll.... I will wait a tad more...... Those that held their positions are happy as they got back most of their loses so far, and Easy Money Monday is up next. Last Monday was not so easy. I made some nice beer money trading VXX. I don't recommend that folks try and trade VXX!!!!! EVER! It is not easy to trade, but I have a system for trading it that has pretty good odds for a winning trade. (It's Gambling for Sure with NO FREE drinks) https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...74&a=946378452
Last edited by robo; 05-14-2021 at 01:37 PM.
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
what is the general investment strategy in a bear market for TSP investing?
I know - without giving investment advice right? just trying to educate myself on the picture of how that would work. is it as simple as waiting on the sidelines till the market would turn back from bear to bull. or is there a more active approach?
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