Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader

4h
Everyone wants to avoid a bear market.

Here are the exact rules for a signal that would have tipped you off to 7 out of the last 10 major stock market declines.
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/s...81917622243330

SPX daily cycle data: After breaking bullishly higher high on Thursday, stocks failed to deliver bullish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 40 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a daily swing high on Friday. A close below the 10 day MA (4143.69) will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and will remain so unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

SPY daily: Love it or hate it the trend remains up!

Miners/GDXJ: It remains in a downtrend.

Stocks have been going vertical since the March DCL. Stops can be raised to the pivot that was formed by backtesting the 10 day MA – 4174.12

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

Counting the Chickens Twice
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

May 2021
There’s an old bit of advice that one shouldn’t count one’s chickens before they’re hatched. Much of the efforts of Wall Street are directed at ignoring that advice. That’s fine in the sense that prices can and often do move in advance of changes in economic activity and earnings.

Of course, Wall Street can also take its chicken-counting to extremes. Indeed, every speculative episode is based, in part, on extrapolating the addition and multiplication of chickens into the indefinite future. One of the most striking examples of excessive chicken-counting here is the way that Wall Street analysts and financial television anchors are equating the very reasonably expected post-pandemic “recovery” of private income and employment with an equally inevitable boom in real GDP, corporate earnings, and stock prices.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210502/

SPX daily: The trend remains up..... Good luck trying to pick a top! There are warning signs, but I just trade the trend these days and it remains up!

Trending above the 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 dma, but stretched above the 200 dma..... These days that doesn't matter....

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie

Apr 30
If the Fed ever does taper, risk assets get crushed, the dollar soars, commodities get crunched and any tantrum in Treasuries will be a huge buying opportunity. QE is only there to generate a positive wealth effect.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en

VIX weekly: I still think the VIX is headed back for a tag of the upper BB this month. However, that be a guess and I trade the trend which remains up.

Staying all in
Positioning remains elevated as US Equity L/S gross leverage stand at 200% (90th %tile over last 12M and the 99th %tile since 2010). Nets are 66%, which represents the 93rd %tile over the last 12M and the 99th %tile since 2010. Are most investors finally “full” as it pertains to equities?
https://themarketear.com/

SPX daily: A cycle low already?!!

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Tuesday to signal the daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 42. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks should break below the daily cycle trend line in order to complete their daily cycle decline. However, we may need to be open to the possibility that this is all the correction that we will get at this time.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...cle-decline-5/