Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
Dec 30, 2020
If you're not worried when you see ultra-speculative firms like Ark and Softbank able to raise money via ultra-speculative vehicles like SPACs, then you're either:

1) Too young to have lived thru a market cycle
2) Completely ignorant of history, or
3) Blinded by bias

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

Originally Posted by robo

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
Dec 30, 2020
If you're not worried when you see ultra-speculative firms like Ark and Softbank able to raise money via ultra-speculative vehicles like SPACs, then you're either:

1) Too young to have lived thru a market cycle
2) Completely ignorant of history, or
3) Blinded by bias

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

Still learning, are you referring to dot com bubble?

""Still learning, are you referring to dot com bubble?""

The 2000 and the 2007 bubbles..... Party like it's 1999 is more like the one we are in now..... However, valuations are hitting extremes not seen in 40 years. Probably plenty of folks here at TSP talk traded both those bubbles. That is why we have more fear the the Robinhood folks trading today. We remember, and those bear markets lasted many months. We also had a deep recession, and could have another one if they don't get COVID under control.

A new record in severely overvalued companies: The rise in sentiment has coincided with a spike in valuations of S&P 500 companies. Nearly 40% of stocks are now severely overvalued, the most in more than 40 years. Net of undervalued companies, we've never seen extremes like this, and high values have preceded weak returns.

sentimentrader.com

So who is buying this overvalued market? It's sure not the insiders....

SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
Replying to
@sentimentrader
...and corporate insiders, who are staying far, far away...

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/s...14236753481728

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

Originally Posted by robo

So who is buying this overvalued market? It's sure not the insiders....

SPAC's and people who are buying their shares. Since "actively managed mutual fund" is now a taboo word, people are using these to take a shot at alpha. Nobody cares about the fees when you can get in on the next UBER, ABNB, LMND or SNOW. Place your bets.

In 2007 everyone wanted in on hedge funds.

https://stockmarketmba.com/listofshellcompanies.php

RE: Margin Debt

Not a very promising chart, though the naive will just say it's different this time because of retail trader account access.

Another indication we're facing 2000 or 2007 again.

Yes Sir! It's ugly out there, but you will not here that on CNBC....... The stock market just doesn't seem to care for now, and most don't really understand how overvalued this market really is.

With all that said the trend remains up..... I'm flat going into 2021 on the long side, but have a few small short positions..... I normally trade what is happening not what I think will happen, but thought a SDS trade was worth a shot. This has been another nice run on my daily data chart. As you know I trade the daily data both ways.

A have some SDS, but I still do not have a confirmed sell signal. My system remains long, but this market is at a historical extreme levels so I will pass on holding long positions for now.

A few facts on just how ugly it is if you have some time. Most are just clueless on these facts, but that is why they continue to make money. However, I use risk management when trading and most new traders don't. I just can't be long now with all the risk indicators I'm seeing.....

"""Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.""""
Jesse Livermore


The Ugly Truth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N_L...ature=emb_logo

Waiting to buy VTI again at Vanguard.

Mohamed A. El-Erian
@elerianm

1h
On the great disconnect between financial #markets and the real #economy. H/T Robert Koenigsberger. #WallStreet #mainstreet

I was expecting an oversold bounce for IWM, so we shall see if it's just a lower high or we make new highs.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...1922&listNum=1

IWM likes the senate win.... It looks like a gap up for IWM and a test of the 201.18 market, and a move above the upper BB. We could see another new all time high at the open.

The trend remains up, but with out me.....

Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.
Jesse Livermore