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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1453

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels
    ·
    Dec 27
    5 PM, December 28, 2020

    Open To ALL:

    Answering The Billion Dollar Question

    To summarize- we are experiencing, right now, the “Big Daddy” of all market tops- the biggest of our lifetimes. The opportunity ahead for short-side traders is nothing short of spectacular! BUT markets are still advancing, and to short now will almost certainly produce losses before those magnificent gains begin to emerge.
    What can the astute trade do at this most unique time in history? The following:
    Recognize from the data above that markets are very close now to the end of one of the most critical market tops in decades, and
    Keep very close tabs on the Short- and Intermediate-Term TRENDS
    When the IT trend turns down, get out and get short

    https://sevensentinels.com/answering...llar-question/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1454

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Oh man. Don got it right in February and called it the big one back then. Now this is the "big daddy".

    We recognize this setup for the most consequential Bear Market of our lifetimes in the 2020s. But there is more- much more evidence of the potency of the calamity that will follow.

    The dollar Value of Options exceeded the dollar value of stocks traded during August 2020- 114%. We do not have to look back at some historical Stock Bubble in history books to find this madness.

    This is no “ordinary” top; we believe it will prove to be one for the ages.

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  5. #1455

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Something to think about from Jessie as we continue to hit additional extremes..... A chart for the 2007 and 2000 tops.... Apples to apples.....

    It's time to go fishing in my opinion.

    Failure to take advantage of a serendipitous act of good luck in the stock market is often a mistake.
    Jesse Livermore

    One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.
    Jesse Livermore

    If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.
    Jesse Livermore

    Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear.

    "One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth-or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world."
    Jesse Livermore

    Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.
    Jesse Livermore

    Do not use the words “Bullish” or “Bearish.” These words fix a firm market-direction in the mind for an extended period of time. Instead, use “Upward Trend” and “Downward Trend” when asked the direction you think the market is headed. Simply say: “The line of least resistance is either upward or downward at this time.” Remember, don’t fight the tape!
    Jesse Livermore

    There is a time to go long. There is a time to go short. There is a time to go fishing.
    Jesse Livermore

    https://www.english-culture.com/50-f...sse-livermore/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #1456

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The current market is more overvalued then 2000 or 2008
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1457

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    "Oh man. Don got it right in February and called it the big one back then. Now this is the "big daddy".

    Not a time to be fully long using leverage like many are.

    With that said, the trend remains up, but we are seeing lots of warning indicators! Time to hedge or reduce some....
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1458

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI = The total stock market. 42 days since the last buy signal and the trend still remains up! I use the daily closing price. I will be trading VTI only in one of my accounts at Vanguard during 2021. Lots of reasons not to be long here, but the fact is the trend remains up.

    I'm expecting to see some selling in the early part of January. Insiders have continued to sell this move up, and I think that will continue going into next year.

    Happy New Year and we can only hope for things to get better in 2021. The first part of the year still looks gloomy, but the stock market doesn't seem to care.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #1459

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The SPY sure looks like it's trying to complete this run..... This daily cycle is getting long in tooth.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1460

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    WEEKEND GOLD FORECAST DECEMBER 31, 2020
    Posted on December 31, 2020 by admin

    SPY- Stock market gains have slowed significantly after the November elections and vaccine news. As I’ve said before, the good news seems to be baked in. I think we will see a correction in January. How severe? I’m not sure. Closing below 350 would open the door to 320. However, it would take a breakdown below 295 to support a double-dip recession.


    https://goldpredict.com/archives/27654
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1461

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    This would be the 3rd-weakest breath since 1962. This remains a concern as we are deep into this daily cycle. (42 days)


    SentimenTrader
    @sentimentrader

    Dec 29, 2020

    If we froze the session right now, the S&P 500 would close at a new high.

    And yet fewer than 40% of issues and less than 40% of volume on the NYSE are advancing.

    This would be the 3rd-weakest breath since 1962.

    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader



    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels
    ·
    Dec 31, 2020
    Thursday 10:00:

    SS LOLR STS
    Up Down Up
    1/6 4/3 2/5

    Breadth: -800/-1200

    McO -26

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #1462

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Jesse Felder
    @jessefelder
    ·
    3h
    "Jay Powell will be the co-pilot and the pilot will be Janet Yellen. Because whether its tax redistribution or creating more employment, it has to come through fiscal. Monetary has done virtually everything it can do."

    The Fed Is Powerful, Except in Fighting Wealth Inequality

    The Covid-19 crisis showed the stark difference between how monetary and fiscal policy can lift the U.S. economy.

    “Monetary policy cannot change the distribution of wealth, monetary policy cannot get the stimulus to the right places today — it has to be fiscal,” Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, told me in an interview. When it comes to steering the economy, “Jay Powell will be the co-pilot and the pilot will be Janet Yellen. Because whether its tax redistribution or creating more employment, it has to come through fiscal. Monetary has done virtually everything it can do.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...lth-inequality


    Why the wealthiest Americans should prepare for ‘a revolt against the unprecedented inequality’

    When the top 10%’s bubble pops in 2021, the loss of illusions/delusions of security and wealth will be shattering to all those who believed artifice and illusory ‘wealth’ were real.“
    That’s Charles Hugh Smith, previously hailed by CNBC as one of the best alternative financial bloggers on the internet, offering up his unsettling outlook for the coming year.

    “Those in America’s top 10% who have reaped virtually all the gains in income and wealth of the past 20 years live in a bubble that they view as unbreakable: no matter what problems arise, their personal income and wealth is secured by the government, central bank, etc,” he said.

    In other words, those at the top of the wealth-power pyramid are confident any financial pain will quickly be soothed by the Federal Reserve and its willingness to keep printing money.

    While that has, indeed, been mostly true for years now, Smith pointed to the folly in that thinking.

    “We cannot print wealth, or borrow it into existence,” he continued. “All we can print/borrow is artifice, phantom representations of illusory ‘wealth’ that will vanish into thin air, in a reverse of how the ‘money’ was created — out of thin air.” This will lead to assets of the elite getting “crushed” without the backstop of liquidity. Stocks, he warned, “will go bidless as phantom wealth dissipates.”



    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/am...more_headlines
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1463

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Definitely can see the inequality come into play in 2021. I'm not talking the typical complaints, but I read that the top three richest Americans are worth more than the bottom 50%. Something is wrong there.

    Insider selling seems to be normalizing with most of the rats having already fled the barn after Biden won.

    My concern is all the SPAC's and IPO's that are basically insider windfalls. SPAC's are getting a ton of hot money and they need somewhere to put it. Where else besides an IPO where everyone can sell their "IPO priced shares" to retail traders who believe the CNBC company hype. Nothing more than a transfer or wealth that can be goosed as long as you stick SaaS or EV somewhere in your company profile.

    I thought there would be a 5% drop or so in December, then ramp up in January, but I was wrong. People could front load their IRA contributions with these relief checks, but again, we're only kicking the can down the road until the next stimulus.

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  23. #1464

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    "Definitely can see the inequality come into play in 2021".

    "IF" the Dem's take back the senate look for much higher taxes for at least the first two years of Biden's run. LOL.... What will Janet and Jerome do as a team...... OH BOY!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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