"Let's see how he's done over the last five years."
That is the reason I started trend trading..... No BIAS..... The trend is up I'm LONG. The trend is down I'm in CASH or shorting with a small position. When my indicators are hitting extremes, I just reduce position size.
These are crazy times indeed to be trading the stock market. The Bubble will POP, but until then I trade what I see happening, not what I think will happen.
Have a nice day Brother!
Daily VXF: I trade VXF at Vanguard.......
“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Nothing at you and I know how you roll. We've learned our lessons in hard knocks from the guessers.
I used to follow Hussman with his periodic email research papers and stopped following him some time around May. I just got so tired of the negativity, years of rooting for a car crash, years of criticizing the federal reserve, years of the whole stupid fiat argument...
Yet, he seemed happy in March. Probably because some of his funds had actually done okay, but I just couldn't take it anymore. Misery loves company and the COVID thing is hard enough. I've cut a lot of things out of my life in the past nine months that did not bring positivity. He was one of them.
Nothing at you and I know how you roll. We've learned our lessons in hard knocks from the guessers.
I used to follow Hussman with his periodic email research papers and stopped following him some time around May. I just got so tired of the negativity, years of rooting for a car crash, years of criticizing the federal reserve, years of the whole stupid fiat argument...
Yet, he seemed happy in March. Probably because some of his funds had actually done okay, but I just couldn't take it anymore. Misery loves company and the COVID thing is hard enough. I've cut a lot of things out of my life in the past nine months that did not bring positivity. He was one of them.
I still follow him because his long term data has merit, but if you are a trader timing is everything.... In the years ahead we shall see if his long term projections plays out. My goal is to make 10% a year with my retirement funds, but I make low risk trades by using risk management. I do have some accounts I take much higher risks, but they are NOT retirement funds for my wife.
"My sense is that passive investors will end up holding the bag here. Every security that is issued has to be held by someone, at every moment in time, until that security is retired. Every dollar that comes “into” the market in the hands of a buyer gets taken out an instant later in the hands of a seller. It’s impossible, in aggregate, for investors to “get out” of the market. There’s no point in advocating it, except for those whose risk-tolerance and investment horizon could not tolerate 10-12 years of negative average total returns with an intervening market loss on the order of 60-70%. The inescapable fact is that every dollar of paper “wealth” that someone takes out of stocks here is just a transfer of wealth from some investor who gets in at these valuations."
"For passive investors, the chart below shows our projection of expected 12-year average annual nominal total returns for a passive investment mix invested 60% in the S&P 500, 30% in Treasury bonds, and 10% in Treasury bills. This projection is now easily the lowest in U.S. history."
There can be little doubt that regardless of rates or future prospects, investors are willing to pay a high amount for current earnings. Over the past 40 years, there have never been more mild, moderate, or severely overvalued companies within the S&P 500.
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Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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Originally Posted by Bullitt
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