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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1165

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Never Forget These 10 Investment Rules

    Rule #4: Follow The Trend.
    80% of portfolio performance is determined by the underlying trend.

    Astute investors peruse the 52-week high list for ideas. Novices tend to consider stocks that make 52-week highs the ones that need to be avoided or sold. Per a white paper by Justin Birru at The Ohio State University titled “Psychological Barriers, Expectational Errors and Underreaction to News,” he posits how investors are overly pessimistic for stocks near 52-week highs although stocks which hit 52-week highs tend to go higher.

    Thomas J. George and Chuan-Yang Hwang penned “The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing,” for The Journal of Finance. The authors discovered purchasing stocks near 52-week highs coupled with a short position in stocks far from a 52-week high, generated abnormal future returns. Now, I don’t expect anyone to invest solely based on studies such as these. However, investors should understand how important an underlying trend is to the generation of returns.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ne...vestment-rules

    Once we get the next cycle low I will be looking over some of the energy indexes for a trade. On my chart below......

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...85&a=702047273

    Waiting on the next VXF buy signal. VXF closed back above the 20 DMA, but we are still deep into this very stretched daily cycle..... I wait!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...23&a=702774295
    Last edited by robo; 12-04-2019 at 08:10 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  2.  
  3. #1166

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Waiting......and it's STBD how this year will play out..... A few of the folks I follow on twitter.....

    SentimenTrader
    @sentimentrader
    ·
    41m
    $SPX fell more than -1.5% in the first 2 days of December.

    The last 2 times this happened:

    December 2018
    December 2008

    Well, I guess we're dead ��

    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader



    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels
    ·
    18m
    9:15 AM, December 4, 2019

    Phase One Trade Agreement Hopes Re-emerge
    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor



    Douglas Kass
    @DougKass
    ·
    2h
    This morning on
    @realmoney

    Here They Come Again and There Go Our Markets
    * The trade, market and political theatre is growing ever more absurd.
    * President Trump (and his Administration) is "Making Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility Great Again." https://realmoney.thestreet.com/doug...iary?published[value][date]=2019-09-27&author=All#president-trump--20190927
    https://twitter.com/dougkass?lang=en



    James DePorre
    @RevShark
    ·
    1h
    I have a very large cash position. It is going to be very challenging to put it to work but the best part of trading is looking for new merchandise.
    @realmoney

    @jimcramer

    @dougkass

    https://twitter.com/RevShark



    Tom McClellan
    @McClellanOsc
    ·
    Dec 1
    So the question now is whether the stock market is rising because of "Not QE", or because it is raining more than normal lately in NYC?

    OR.... Does QE cause NYC rain? Does rain cause QE?
    https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  4.  
  5. #1167

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A buy signal for traders?

    The VIX is on this chart.... VXF now testing and back above the 10 DMA, and the VIX giving a buy signal..... I will wait...... You can see that there were times when that data could only be used for a VST trade. Read Jeff's comments about the VIX and the BBs......

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...23&a=702774295

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...85&a=704352516



    Jeff Clark's Market Minute
    Why Most Folks Lose Money in the Stock Market
    By Jeff Clark
    December 4, 2019

    For the past couple of weeks I’ve been obsessed with the Volatility Index (VIX).

    “It’s too low,” I said. “The Bollinger Bands are too tight. Periods of low volatility are always followed by periods of high volatility.”

    Since a rising VIX usually goes along with a falling stock market, I’ve been cautious on stocks. And, up until Friday, I’ve been wrong.

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  6.  
  7. #1168

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  8.  
  9. #1169

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Meaning of Valuation
    Print Friendly, PDF & Email




    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    President, Hussman Investment Trust

    December 2019

    Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
    – Professor Irving Fisher, October 15, 1929

    As it happened, the Dow would subsequently lose over 89% of its value, plunging to a low of 41.22 on July 8, 1932.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc191203/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1170

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I'm waiting to see how we close..... VXF back above the 10 DMA......

    Stock market update

    Smart Money Tracker -

    A nice move up for energy indexes... VST trading XES

    On my chart below.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...85&a=704352516
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


  12.  
  13. #1171

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    We are in the box based on my Risk Level data...... See my chart below and look at the (April 2019 data and now) I get the data from Sentiment Trader so I cant post it...... I use different data points then he does, and I don't use his BT engine. I track patterns based on historical data points and extremes.....

    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

    What does that mean - It means we have above average odds that VXF will BT its 200 DMA in December. I said high odds. That doesn't mean it will, but the odds are currently very high that it will. With enough buying power every extreme can become more extreme. However, that keeps me on the sidelines for now, and only VST trading. That means flat VXF at Vanguard.... That's very close to the S Fund at TSP.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...85&a=702047273


    Good trading.....
    Last edited by robo; 12-04-2019 at 06:13 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1172

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Bull market continues on the monthly chart..... When is the next rate cut?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...53&a=704623404
    Attached Images Attached Images
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1173

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The cycles tell us we just started a new daily cycle, but I remain flat...... The weekly data remains on a hold long positions too......

    Posted on December 7, 2019

    Stocks formed a swing high on Friday and then delivered bearish follow through on Monday to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline.

    Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, following the day 39 peak. That was day 42, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Wednesday. Then stocks closed back above the 10 day MA to confirm day 42 as the DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...9/12/07/14562/


    The daily and weekly both support holding long positions..... I remain flat...... Risk/Reward......

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...03&a=702047273

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...19&a=704685794
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #1174

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Is another buying op for gold and the miners coming our way.... Adam thinks so, and Jack's data supports it too...... Not sure what data on the COT report is the most important for gold? Adam explains it well, and that's why I track it.... I trade the miners only not gold....

    COT data....
    https://snalaska.us/cot/current/charts/GC.png

    Jacks data..... 253k https://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/def...jc120719-7.png

    https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/g...sive-update-86




    Adam's reasons why...

    Gold Correction Not Over
    Dec. 6, 2019 11:48 PM ET

    Summary
    Gold’s correction isn’t over yet. The only reason its downtrend has proven modest so far is gold-futures speculators have yet to do any major selling. That is still coming.

    Their longs have lingered at very-high levels since gold’s latest interim high, while their shorts ground along near bull-market lows. These extremes aren’t sustainable and must be normalized.

    That means the lion’s share of the necessary gold-futures selling to drive this correction hasn’t hit yet. Specs still have massive room to sell but little room to buy.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/431...=seeking_alpha

    My trend trading data for gold.....

    Daily

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...97&a=704299607


    Weekly

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...28&a=704242805

    The Miners....

    Daily - Another close below the 10 DMA and 50 DMA

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...35&a=699718562

    Weekly

    The weekly trend remains down based on my system.... ( below the 10 week MA)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...05&a=704242674
    Last edited by robo; 12-07-2019 at 01:40 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1175

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Learn to be a contrarian

    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

    Post employment report update
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1176

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The first half of the weekend report (below) will cover the usual content. The second half will examine US retail gold sales; I think you’ll find it interesting.

    WEEKEND REPORT DECEMBER 8, 2019

    https://goldpredict.com/archives/22474
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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