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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1141

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The divergence continues, but the SPY just keeps moving higher..... The VXF and SPY both remain on a hold long positions using my daily data, but I'm flat... (The Risk Reward is to high for me)

    This is day 8 that IWM has been below the 10 DMA sometime during the trading day or closed below it, and the VIX BBs continue to get squeezed. There is many other data points, but the market doesn't care.

    Waiting on a VXX buy signal and a VXF sell signal to buy some VXX.

    Bottom Line: The trend remains up with a bunch of warning signals and many investors and traders just really don't care about.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...32&a=701652435

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...31&a=700872155

    Looking for a XES buy signal for a possible trade...

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...15&a=698911440
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  2.  
  3. #1142

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Warning indicator Cycles = Risk Reward.

    The 11/23/19 Weekend Report Preview

    Stocks formed a daily swing high on Wednesday.

    Wednesday was day 34 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. So Wednesday’s swing high should send stocks into their daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will indicate the daily cycle decline.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/
    Last edited by robo; 11-23-2019 at 08:04 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1143

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Warning Indicator - HYG

    Jeff Clark's Market Minute
    The Biggest Medical Revolution Since Antibiotics
    By Jeff Brown
    November 24, 2019

    The Most Vulnerable Chart in the Market
    By Mike Merson
    November 23, 2019
    Print
    By Mike Merson, managing editor, Market Minute

    For the past three weeks, the market’s been all risk, all the time.

    The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have all made blowout moves to new highs. Hopes for a China trade deal propelled the move, of course. Just as it has for the past two years…

    But if you ask me, none of this feels right. Stocks are heavy right here. Trading momentum is drying up. The price of stocks just isn’t lining up with how traders are behaving.

    So, no matter what happens with the China trade deal, I think we’re setting up for one massive sell-on-the-news situation.

    Jeff has preached all week that you should be cautious of this market. I’m in firm agreement with him. Judging by how the smart money has behaved, we’re just one bad day away from what could be a nasty correction.

    Regards,

    Mike Merson

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...in-the-market/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #1144

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Index Of The Volume Of Speculation’ Is Rolling Over

    jessefelder
    November 20, 2019

    What’s more, over the past 20 years, with the exception of the 2016 episode, when margin debt has begun to fall from such lofty levels it has coincided with a major market peak in stocks. Indeed, along with margin debt, the NYSE Composite, Russell 2000 and the Dow Transportation Average all remain below their 2018 highs. Investors chasing the new highs in the S&P 500 clearly believe, “this time is different.”

    https://thefelderreport.com/2019/11/...-rolling-over/

    Opinion: As the market hits new highs, most stocks are sinking

    By Simon Maierhofer
    Published: Nov 18, 2019 5:15 p.m. ET

    In a recent period of almost two weeks, the S&P 500 Index reached new all-time highs on four of eight trading days.

    But on six of those eight days, more stocks declined than advanced (see chart below).

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as...?mod=home-page
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1145

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Bottom line - The daily trend remains up..... I have been hearing this for sometime now.....

    SevenSentinels


    @SevenSentinels
    5h5 hours ago
    More
    1 PM, November 24, 2019

    PRIMARY CYCLE TOP

    https://sevensentinels.com/november-...ary-cycle-top/

    SERIOUS TRADERS ONLY: We Will Post a Detailed YouTube Video Of This Article Later Today- Open To All

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ_P...ature=youtu.be
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1146

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)



    Head of the world’s largest hedge fund says report of a massive $1 billion bet that the stock market will tumble by March is wrong




    Mark DeCambre

    ,MarketWatchNovember 25, 2019


    Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, disputing elements of a Wall Street Journal report on Friday that indicated his fund was putting on a $1.5 billion bet that global stock markets would drop precipitously by March 2020. However, Dalio took to Twitter to attempt to disabuse anyone of the notion that this reflected an outright bearish outlook for markets. The Journal said the reported investment would represent about 1% of Bridgewater Associate's $150 billion in assets.

    (Reuters) - Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio said on Friday his hedge fund does not have a net bet that the stock market will fall, taking issue with a story published earlier in the Wall Street Journal.
    The hedge fund has bet more than $1 billion that stock markets around the world will drop by March, the WSJ said in its report on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. (https://on.wsj.com/2pGbT53)
    The bet, assembled over a span of months and executed by a handful of Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc <GS.N> and Morgan Stanley <MS.N>, would pay off for the world's biggest hedge fund if either the S&P 500 <.SPX> or the Euro Stoxx 50 <.STOXX50E> — or both — declines, the report had said.

    The bet is made up of put options, contracts that give investors the right to sell stocks at a specific price by a certain date. The options expire in March and currently represent one of the largest bearish bets against the market, the report added.

    "To convey us having a bearish view of the stock market would be misleading," Dalio said in a statement.\

    However, Dow Jones, the publisher of Wall Street Journal, said the article is based on interviews with multiple sources.
    "The article does not report, as Mr. Dalio says, that Bridgewater has a 'net' bearish position on the stock market," a spokesman for Dow Jones said.
    "The article made clear that the trade could be a hedge for the firm's significant long exposure to equity markets, among other possibilities."


    more:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-d...112006553.html

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  13. #1147

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    "Head of the world’s largest hedge fund says report of a massive $1 billion bet that the stock market will tumble by March is wrong"


    I don't know what will happen, but the Risk Reward data has me flat.....

    The trend remains up, with a new record for shorting the $VIX.

    https://twitter.com/search?q=%24VIX&src=cashtag_click
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1148

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Note: Bearish indicator-

    Yesterday I drove past the Flint, Michigan Chevy Truck assembly plant.

    Normally, there would be about 300 or so trucks in the finished goods lot awaiting shipment.

    Yesterday, there were about 2,000 sitting there.

    Now, I know that the recent GM strike stopped production for four weeks- clearing out inventories at dealers,
    but, I did not expect that big of an inventory buildup that quickly after the strike was over.

    I don't know if that indicates transportation trouble getting trucks out to dealers,
    or if that indicates dealer sales have suddenly dropped off.

    I will be watching vehicle rebate incentives over the next month or two.

    If incentives are raised, that will say inventories are too high.

    If incentives are not raised, then I'm thinking it may be more of either a slight over-production issue, or a distribution issue.

    "If GM sneezes, the stock market catches a cold".

  16.  
  17. #1149

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Note: Bearish indicator-

    Yesterday I drove past the Flint, Michigan Chevy Truck assembly plant.

    Normally, there would be about 300 or so trucks in the finished goods lot awaiting shipment.

    Yesterday, there were about 2,000 sitting there.

    Now, I know that the recent GM strike stopped production for four weeks- clearing out inventories at dealers,
    but, I did not expect that big of an inventory buildup that quickly after the strike was over.

    I don't know if that indicates transportation trouble getting trucks out to dealers,
    or if that indicates dealer sales have suddenly dropped off.

    I will be watching vehicle rebate incentives over the next month or two.

    If incentives are raised, that will say inventories are too high.

    If incentives are not raised, then I'm thinking it may be more of either a slight over-production issue, or a distribution issue.

    "If GM sneezes, the stock market catches a cold".
    The indicators keep adding up Brother, and the market just keeps moving higher..... The cycle data is getting stretched too....

    Jeff Clark's Market Minute
    I’m Not Buying It
    By Jeff Clark
    November 25, 2019

    Stocks are supposed to move higher this week.

    The last seven trading days of November are historically some of the most bullish days of the year according to Jeff Hirsch, who publishes the excellent Stock Trader’s Almanac. Over the past 40 years, the S&P 500 has gained ground 28 times during this week.

    That’s a 70% win rate. And, the average gain is 1%. That’s a solid, respectable outcome for seven trading days.

    But, I’m not buying it this year.

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/


    Stock market update: crash potential (Short Video about the current daily cycle)

    Smart Money Tracker -

    I bought a new truck in 2008.... LOL.... maybe a good deal in 2020 is coming my way.....

    Free weekend gold report.

    https://goldpredict.com/archives/22317

    I'm not a sub of any gold reports. I have my own system for trading the gold miners...
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #1150

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    For Traders only.....


    Ticking Time Bomb
    Started by dTraderB, Today, 04:07 AM

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...me-bomb/page-2
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1151

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1152

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    For Traders - My comments are posted

    The TURKEY phase of the Market
    Started by dTraderB, Today, 08:13 AM

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...of-the-market/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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