Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

VXF ( I remain long) moved below the 10 DMA, but buyers came in..... I use the closing prices so still waiting to see how this plays out..... XES and FCG getting hit hard too.... XES and FCG is a dollar trade based on a move by the dollar much lower, and I will be trading NUGT too once I like the setup......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XE...11&a=692182569

The dollar ( green line) XES ( purple line) please compare using the LT data chart below. Now will it be different this time using the 2008 and 2019 data? Don't know, but I track these data points for possible buying ops....

The LT monthly data chart that includes the dollar and XES...... Note the relationship of these two at market tops.... I would say XES has a huge move coming "IF" it's not different this time.... I wait and watch this data for a possible buying op!

Look at this updated chart - It's called rotation, or moving to higher levels (decks) of the Titanic as it went down.... It worked for awhile (a trade) but in the end everything gets sold. Some Hedge Fund Mangers would say you just have sell what you can once the sellers just want out....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...06&a=696733759

Originally Posted by robo

VXF ( I remain long) moved below the 10 DMA, but buyers came in..... I use the closing prices so still waiting to see how this plays out..... XES and FCG getting hit hard too.... XES and FCG is a dollar trade based on a move by the dollar much lower, and I will be trading NUGT too once I like the setup......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XE...11&a=692182569

The dollar ( green line) XES ( purple line) please compare using the LT data chart below. Now will it be different this time using the 2008 and 2019 data? Don't know, but I track these data points for possible buying ops....

The LT monthly data chart that includes the dollar and XES...... Note the relationship of these two at market tops.... I would say XES has a huge move coming "IF" it's not different this time.... I wait and watch this data for a possible buying op!

Look at this updated chart - It's called rotation, or moving to higher levels (decks) of the Titanic as it went down.... It worked for awhile (a trade) but in the end everything gets sold. Some Hedge Fund Mangers would say you just have sell what you can once the sellers just want out....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...06&a=696733759

I added $HUI on the LT data chart since I will be trading the miners.... (Orange Line)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...37&a=696751075

The Bottom line: Note the dollar, $HUI and XES once a the dollar moves down..... Other indexes will perform well to, but this is what I will be trading once VXF moves back to a cash position. With all that said it might not happen and that's fine too.

Because I trade what I see happening not what I think will happen. However, this is a historical data chart and gives me clues of what might happen. I'm just looking for a possible setup if it does.....

VXF/IWM is barley holding on to a buy signal..... I could be moving to cash today for that position..... Watching the close, and will decide the last few minutes. I had already reduced 1/2 and I'm currently hedged, but I trade the signals even if I get whipsawed...... I just buy the position back.... No more then 20% of my funds in the current market.....

Have a nice day! The data above is for traders.....

LOL..... The Fed..... Crazy times when the president tweets about the Fed.

https://twitter.com/JayPowellsDiary

Originally Posted by 1965Vintage

Removed

I don't mind if they just cry, but I think more protests and civil unrest is coming as we get closer to the election.... Like I said.....crazy times..... We have so much hate out there against groups of people and even the Congress are turning into real haters from both sides....

VXF and IWM - Well, the RSI is turning down some, MACD has a baby curl moving down, but the bottom line is that IWM and VXF both closed above their 10 DMAs on my daily trading chart.... This is after both moved below today.... I don't care what the SPY does, because I trade Small and Mid cap stocks and they general leading the general trend. However, I will remian long no matter how much I hate this market until my system tells me to move to a cash position.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...04&a=693601186

Did we just see a lower high on my IWM daily trading chart? Stay tuned...... I call the S Fund the market - around 4500 stocks. Not the DOW (30 stocks) or the S&P 500 ( 500 stocks). If IWM can't make a new all time high it remains a problem for the Bulls.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

Good Trading!

A new month = A gap up and a new all time high for SPY.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...03&a=696890125


VXF - Hate the market if you want, but VXF remains on a buy signal and the trend remains up...... IWM now moving into the trouble zone, and VXX continues to get smashed....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...91&a=696942523

Gold - A possible lower high again.... GDX back under the 50 DMA and the 10 DMA be up next..... Still on a buy signal, but I'm waiting to see how this plays out....

Flat NUGT.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...26&a=694576197

Will this move down be below Delta neutral or Gamma neutral..... Don't know, but waiting for a better setup..... The odds favor a move down so I remain on the sidelines. I trade the miners and don't hold them for an investment....

IT TOP: almost there! BEARS capitulating, FOMO frenzy....
Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:08 PM

https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...g-fomo-frenzy/

My updated chart..... I update them weekly....... For the record: I trade VXF, but the most important index to me is IWM...... The Bulls (buyers) continue to move this lagging index (divergence and non-confirming of the SPY) higher, but in the red zone again..... We shall see if it can move to new all time highs too in the weeks ahead.... However, my system remains long!

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...38&a=697262130

Gold and the miners (GDXJ) - day 7 closing above the 10 DMA ( that is a hold long for me) The odds still favor a move down for gold -under 1450ish min.... ( I said ODDS)

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...68&a=697111492

Have a nice weekend!

Is this the start for XES and FCG...... A nice gap up this morning.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XE...71&a=696881922

The LT data chart..... XES is the purple line...... Maybe a nice window for a buying op if you believe in LT patterns repeating.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...41&a=696890125

Manufacturing is now officially in recession,
despite Trump’s vow to boost industry

[COLOR=var(--primaryTextColor)]President Trump visits the Joint Systems Manufacturing Center in Lima, Ohio, earlier this year to address employees.
(Craig J. Orosz / Associated Press)

By DON LEESTAFF WRITER [/COLOR]

WASHINGTON —During President Trump’s first two years in office, his standing with many voters was buoyed by a surge in manufacturing that helped create millions of jobs and undergirded the whole U.S. economy.

But today, manufacturing has plunged into recession and is threatening to pull down other sectors, perhaps hitting hardest on supporters in those states that helped put Trump in office.
Impeachment may be dominating the news, but the less-noticed industrial slump ultimately could pose a greater threat to Trump’s reelection.

As measured by the Federal Reserve, manufacturing output shrank over two straight quarters this year. That’s the common definition of recession.

A separate, widely followed index drawn from purchasing managers showed September’s contraction in manufacturing was the steepest since June 2009, with production, inventories and new orders all falling.

More: https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...g-in-recession




That's it- two consecutive quarters with shrinking manufacturing output- the GM strike, combined with Boeing's halt of the 737-Max shipments, is really affecting the Manufacturing sector.
What happens in THIS QUARTER is going to be looked at very closely to see where the economy is headed.

"That's it- two consecutive quarters with shrinking manufacturing output- the GM strike, combined with Boeing's halt of the 737-Max shipments, is really affecting the Manufacturing sector.
What happens in THIS QUARTER is going to be looked at very closely to see where the economy is headed."

The Fed knows what is going on and has started a rate cut cycle.... It's also pumping money to it's primary dealers.... ( so stocks keep going higher) Will it be enough to prevent a recession and a Bear Market..... Don't know, but for now the trend remains up....

SPY hitting all time highs and the Fed started a rate cut cycle...... This should be good...... My VXF system remains long...... I hate this market, but I trade what is happening not what I thinks will happen..... Day 17 above the 10 DMA and I use the closing prices for my system.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...84&a=696330430

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

Again, the SPY hitting new all time highs and the Fed started a rate cut cycle..... They be scared about something Brother!

The LT data with the rate cut cycle.......


https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...41&a=696890125


Not many even any care about this anymore.... ( The Feds balance sheet) LOL... The trend remains up so just hold your nose when you go long, or just trend trade and don't worry be happy and enjoy the gains you are making.... Some day the dollar with be worth half the current value and inflation will be the talk on CNBC..... Remember the 80's... See the prime lending rate on my LT chart below.



https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...39&a=696733743

This chart includes the 1980's WTH.... 15% RATES.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...15&a=680419612

Fed's Balance Sheet Soars Above $4 Trillion: Up $250 Billion Since Repo Crisis

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fe...on-repo-crisis


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What Happened When Weekly RSI for SPX dropped to just 64 at a new SPX High? Hint: Sept 1, 2000, October 11, 2007, & Today

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vp0elsMJ50I