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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1057

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Something to watch in the weeks ahead..... Click on the bottom link below to see the data chart.....


    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    10m
    Let's face it, this market has been screwed, blued, and tattooed over and over by this China Trade War Hype... Returns on these tweets can vanish, not just diminish.

    Meanwhile something happened on Friday at the F'ed that can REALLY CHANGE THINGS...
    "Not Q.E." - Q.E. Light Could Change Everything...
    F'ED ANNOUNCEMENT ON FRIDAY MAY CHANGE EVERYTHING Shown here is what happened when the Massive QE was launched in the Fall of 2011... I'm showing 10 ...


    https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


    "Not Q.E." - Q.E. Light Could Change Everything...
    By Trading Coach, 20 hours ago in General Discussion

    Posted 20 hours ago
    F'ED ANNOUNCEMENT ON FRIDAY MAY CHANGE EVERYTHING

    Shown here is what happened when the Massive QE was launched in the Fall of 2011... I'm showing 10 year charts of Gold and Nasdaq monthly... basically what we need to understand here is regardless of anything else fundamental in the economy... the sheer "liquidity" of these events can pour into the market and we see valuations skyrocket not based on any fundamentals but the sheer size of fund flows competing for assets.

    More: "Not Q.E." - Q.E. Light Could Change Everything... - General Discussion - VOLUME DYNAMICS

  2.  
  3. #1058

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

    Quote
    MultiQuote


    My 2007 Bear Market data chart below (second link) - It could be different this time with the banks printing so much money, but I like to track patterns. So I'm watching The Dollar, rate cuts, gold, and XES and comparing them to 2007 data for possible trades......... Is there a trade coming soon? QE could change things.... So I wait to see how this will play out, and look for the next big trend to trade.... Watching XES and FCG....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XE...11&a=692182569

    The 2007 Bear Market data chart....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...01&a=681966961

    I agree with the comment below.....

    Investors are too concerned with the next U.S. President and aren't focusing on which party will control the Senate.


    The real question, not asked nearly enough, is not about who will win the Presidency but whether Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate: betting sites like the University of Iowa during the past several weeks have shifted from a 28% chance to a 44% likelihood of Republicans losing Senate control. This would have a profound influence especially on U.S. marginal tax rates which would surely rise sharply for individuals and businesses if we have a Democratic sweep of the U.S. Presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives in November 2020. Even if Elizabeth Warren becomes the next U.S. President it won't affect much beyond Supreme Court nominations and a few other appointments unless Republicans lose Senate domination. Hardly any tax changes or major spending alterations will occur without the key Senate majority, barring surprise bipartisan cooperation.

    Kapaln

    https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

    Good trading next week!
    Last edited by robo; 10-14-2019 at 08:24 AM.

  4.  
  5. #1059

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Getting very close to my next VXX trade.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...33&a=693406838

    Waiting to buy GDXJ again.....


    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...42&a=693407144

    Have a nice day!


    I track this indicator.....


    Jeff Clark's Market Minute
    Don’t Be Fooled by a Low VIX…


    Published July 03, 2019 - 7:30 AM
    Be careful. One of the most consistent indicators I follow is on the verge of generating a broad stock market sell signal…

    We came into this week expecting higher stock prices, but also willing to sell stocks into that rally. That seems like an even better strategy today than it did on Monday.

    The S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time high on Monday. It added slightly to the gains yesterday. And, in the process of that buying binge, the Volatility Index (VIX) has collapsed.

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...-by-a-low-vix/


    Some trading tips to watch if you trade VXX

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/page/2/?s=vix



    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    18m
    $VIX getting SMOKED here pre-market

    https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics
    Last edited by robo; 10-15-2019 at 08:22 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  6.  
  7. #1060

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM back above the 200 DMA........ Waiting to see how it closes, and I would like to see Some Beef! Daily trend trading data posted at the link above.

    Long VXX @ $21.45.... For a trade only..... Lower BB tag trade.....
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  8.  
  9. #1061

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A few of the traders I track on twitter......


    SevenSentinels


    @SevenSentinels
    4h4 hours ago
    More
    Tuesday 10:00:

    Daily LOLR STS

    Down Up Down

    4/3 7/0 5/2



    SevenSentinels


    @SevenSentinels
    2h2 hours ago
    More
    12:00

    Loss of momentum:

    https://sevensentinels.com/october-15-2019-intra-day/


    Morethomas Retweeted 0range Crush
    Think like the criminals... if they can get the market to forget about the trade war and just trade on the liquidity pouring in, then the trade war goes to page 14 of the NY Times and we party on...thomas added,
    0range Crush

    @0rangeCru5h
    #China saying No Deal unless US Removes current Tariffs
    How do you think #Trump is reacting to this development?
    #ChinaTrade
    $SPX…



    https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


    SentimenTrader

    Verified account

    @sentimentrader
    4m4 minutes ago
    More
    This would be the 4th time in ~6 months that the S&P 500 has rallied from being down at least 4% from its peak to climb back to within 1%.

    This is the most recovery attempts in such a short window since...well, ever. Before today, it had never attempted more than 3.


    Tweets, current page. Tweets & replies Media

    David Rosenberg


    @EconguyRosie
    5h5 hours ago
    More
    I chuckled as I saw the weekend press gush over a Canadian employment report that showed a net loss of private wage & salaried workers. If you work for the government or for yourself, you're hired!

    2 replies11 retweets68 likes
    Reply 2 Retweet 11 Like 68

    David Rosenberg


    @EconguyRosie
    7h7 hours ago
    More
    Thirteen talks over eighteen months and the best we get are four to five more weeks of talks to get to something called Phase 1, which is just a collection of easy concessions cobbled together eons ago. Facade!

    https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en


    James DePorre


    @RevShark
    34m34 minutes ago
    More
    if today's bank reports are establishing a theme for third quarter earnings reports, then this market is in good shape.

    1 reply1 retweet10 likes
    Reply 1 Retweet 1 Like 10

    James DePorre


    @RevShark
    40m40 minutes ago
    More
    Biotech $IBB up 2% today. That is a group we need to turn if we are going to have better speculative trading.

    2 replies0 retweets4 likes
    Reply 2 Retweet Like 4

    James DePorre


    @RevShark
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    This certainly feels a bit squeezy

    https://twitter.com/RevShark/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #1062

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Im actually looking at opportunities to go short for a scalp...waiting..


  12.  
  13. #1063

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I will be trying a TZA trade.....

    Good Luck on your trade!

    Also, waiting to buy back my GDXJ position. I will be buying some NUGT too...... (WAITING)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...42&a=693407144

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  14.  
  15. #1064

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Bulls (LOL..... - the Buy BOTS) will try and keep IWM above the 200 DMA today.... That could send out some buy signals..... I'm still waiting to see how this plays out.... Risk Management - because VXF is back on a buy signal for my system, but I'm still going to wait based on a few other indicators....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...36&a=693406838

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  16.  
  17. #1065

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    The Bulls (LOL..... - the Buy BOTS) will try and keep IWM above the 200 DMA today.... That could send out some buy signals..... I'm still waiting to see how this plays out.... Risk Management - because VXF is back on a buy signal for my system, but I'm still going to wait based on a few other indicators....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...36&a=693406838

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
    Yep..... got some buy signals today. Will it be a whipsaw or the real deal.... It depends on who you ask, but I say we shall see!

    Post navigation← Previous
    The Train Is Leaving The Station
    Posted on October 15, 2019


    Back in June we looked at the Semi Conductors



    We discussed how the Semi’s were poised to begin the next leg up in their bull market.

    2-sox

    Tonight we can see that the train is leaving the station.

    3-sox

    The question that I would ask myself if I did not have a position is:
    “After a 17 year consolidation what’s more important? A perfect entry or just getting on board?”
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...the-station-2/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  18.  
  19. #1066

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Well, VXF is above the 10 , 50 and 200 DMAs.... If you are a trend trader like I am , the data is looking good. ... However, a few other indicators I use has me still watching - which could turn out to be a deer in the headlights mistake for me.... It's easy for me to move in and out at Vanguard since I have unlimited moves and the trades are free..... It's much different for those using the S Fund.

    The VIX is a trading indicator I watch and use with Sentiment looking for extremes to trade...

    Good Trading!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...96&a=693601186


    Jeff Clark's Market Minute
    Another Warning Sign From the Stock Market’s Crystal Ball…
    Published October 16, 2019 - 7:30 AM

    Longtime readers know I often refer to Volatility Index (VIX) option prices as the “crystal ball” of the stock market. They do have unique predictive abilities – which I explained in early July, when we looked at VIX options.

    VIX call options are, once again, far more expensive than the corresponding put options. That means traders are willing to pay much more to speculate that the VIX will be higher one month from now than lower.

    And, a higher VIX usually means a lower stock market.

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/

    Some VIXs tips...

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/?s=VIX


    $VIX Crush
    BY SVEN HENRICH ON OCTOBER 15, 2019

    Oh look, the $VIX is getting crushed again. Given all that is going on globally one may be inclined to express surprise, but it really isn’t a surprise. See there’s this monthly program running through markets and it, more of than not, crushes the $VIX with regularity during its special time of the month. No, the $VIX doesn’t have a period, but it meets its fate during the period of OPEX, monthly options expiration week.

    Most notably it’s the futures contract ($VX) that rolls over and the resulting contango sees the $VIX get crushed.

    These $VIX dumps into oblivion occur during the futures roll-over onto the next month’s contract which either occurs during the week of OPEX or the week after:

    https://northmantrader.com/2019/10/15/vix-crush-2/
    Last edited by robo; 10-16-2019 at 06:57 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  20.  
  21. #1067

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The move up continues, and it looks pretty good so far.....

    Day 5 since the move above the 10 DMA on my daily chart.... You can't fight the price even if it's on low volume..... The reason we continue to move higher doesn't matter to me or my trading system - It remains on a buy signal.

    My VXX trade is still in play... my stop hasn't been hit yet!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...38&a=693406838

    For trading I disagree with this..... I BT it using a simple 10 DMA and I'm the winner.... I'm still a sub there....

    "External Follows Internal. Most POWERFUL #trading concept on Earth. Period. Proprietary Sentinels dvlpd over 4+ decades.http://SevenSentinels.com"
    More
    11 AM


    Who be tweeting and what......


    Markets Higher On Brexit Hopes... A few I follow.....

    https://sevensentinels.com/october-17-2019-intraday/


    thomas


    @VolumeDynamics
    12m12 minutes ago

    More thomas Retweeted thomas
    Plenty of time to whipsaw us between now and 10/31... 2 weeks of ABUSE...thomas added,
    thomas

    @VolumeDynamics
    Say what does anyone think might happen, should this priced-in Brexit, China, and F'ed cut "in the bag" nirvana trade start to crumble? ��


    thomas


    @VolumeDynamics
    13m13 minutes ago
    More
    Say what does anyone think might happen, should this priced-in Brexit, China, and F'ed cut "in the bag" nirvana trade start to crumble? ��



    thomas


    @VolumeDynamics
    31m31 minutes ago
    More
    So the bar is set pretty high here for the bears... at present on the daily chart... we have the gap up holding, higher high on stronger volume... to get a bearish outcome today, lows have to break and hold, at a minimum.



    thomas


    @VolumeDynamics
    42m42 minutes ago
    More
    REALITY CHECK - $VIX is at 14 here, not 20...

    INDICES NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS...


    David Rosenberg


    @EconguyRosie
    1h1 hour ago


    It's always fun to watch Larry Kudlow hyperventilate on CNBC. He did fail to mention that even without the GM strike effect, manufacturing activity shrank 0.2% last month.
    SentimenTrader

    Verified account

    @sentimentrader
    50m50 minutes ago
    More
    The most bearish active investment manager is twice as bearish as the most bullish one is bullish, per the latest NAAIM survey.

    The last time that happened was 5 years ago.

    4 replies28 retweets56 likes
    Reply 4 Retweet 28 Like 56

    SentimenTrader

    Verified account



    @sentimentrader
    4h4 hours ago
    More
    On the flip side, when you look at total return, it's not quite so�� https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status...38292735348736


    Sven Henrich

    Verified account

    @NorthmanTrader
    28m28 minutes ago
    MoreSven Henrich Retweeted Jesse Felder
    Short interest falls to lowest in a yearSven Henrich added,

    Jesse Felder

    @jessefelder
    'Bets against U.S. stocks haven’t been this low since last October -- just before the deepest sell-off in a decade.' https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ntial-breakout
    3 replies21 retweets78 likes
    Reply 3 Retweet 21 Like 78
    Last edited by robo; 10-17-2019 at 12:00 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  22.  
  23. #1068

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    Jesse Felder

    @jessefelder
    'Bets against U.S. stocks haven’t been this low since last October -- just before the deepest sell-off in a decade.' https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ntial-breakout
    3 replies21 retweets78 likes
    Reply 3 Retweet 21 Like 78
    Interesting, considering what Tony Dwyer was saying yesterday...

    Tony Dwyer, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said the nervousness is palpable.
    Economic Outlook
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  24.  
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