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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1177

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Monday will be day 31..... My current data.....

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...xt-week/page-2
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1178

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A LT monthly data chart.... Lots of talk about the VIX lately....

    What does the LT monthly data telling us about the current VIX pattern and the 2000/2007 historical patterns?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...31&a=705737382
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1179

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    A LT monthly data chart.... Lots of talk about the VIX lately....

    What does the LT monthly data telling us about the current VIX pattern and the 2000/2007 historical patterns?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...31&a=705737382
    nice chart. there is something to be said for watching what the fed does and delayed market response.


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  7. #1180

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by CrabClaw View Post
    nice chart. there is something to be said for watching what the fed does and delayed market response.
    I like to track historical patterns after trading in the 2000 and 2008 Bear Markets. It could be different this time, but it will probably be similar in many ways....

    33 days into the MT higher risk trading zone. The last one didn't even make it to 30, but ( Not QE is a game changer when it comes to making new extremes)


    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...03&a=705911255

    Bottom Line: The trend remains up on my daily and weekly trend trading system, but the Risk/Reward is to high for me.....

    Have a good one!
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1181

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    My current comments..... I remain flat at Vanguard (VXF - Risk Management)

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...-gap-up/page-2

    Posted Today, 12:38 PM

    Monday is day 38 of my ( MT warning indicators). I currently use 4 data points. It's only a warning indicator, but has a 100% success rate. It's not "if" - it's when during the current extreme will the market pullback. It's not a crash indicator....

    However, (NOT QE) Is a game changer for now.... See link below.....


    I don't try and pick tops..... I trade the trend no matter how big the bubble gets. That is why I'm flat in my Vanguard account ( Risk/Reward), but trading both ways in other accounts....



    I wait for a VXX buy signal on the 2 hour chart, and a VXF sell before making any more trades.....


    Bottom line: The trend remains up, but I remain flat at Vanguard. I posted I was trading TNA and day-trading VXX last week for those that only read some of my posts. I don't normally hold over the weekends..... One tweet can wipe out to many of your gains.....


    My 2 hour trading chart below..... Watching the VXX as it continues down after a short bounce.......


    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...73&a=703005368


    Daily


    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...50&a=706677226



    The daily chart and it's day 38 Monday for the warning indicator. I do use cycles too for trading, but the trend is always the bottom line indicator for me.


    Stocks delivered mixed signals as they broke out to new highs.


    Stocks printed a very mild daily cycle low on day 42. Stocks have since regained the 10 day MA and broke out to new highs. However there are bearish divergences that are beginning to develop on the oscillators, which often precede a daily cycle decline. A swing high accompanied by a break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

    https://likesmoneycy...report-preview/



    "The Fed revealed silently yesterday that they are injecting half a trillion dollars into the financial system in order to avoid a cash crunch into year-end and spiking repo rates. In other words, the Fed put is strong and alive. We are basically just waiting for the Fed to increase its monetary operations to coupons which means real QE. At the same time, other central banks are also easing pushing down rates improving the spread between fixed income and equities, which means equities look more attractive as long as the economy doesn’t go into recession."



    US Equity Valuations Creep Into Dot-Com Bubble Territory For The First Time In 20 Years


    Print
    Maximum support for equities but watch those G7 rates

    The last 24 hours have sent global equities higher and if this continue until end of month we will see US equity valuation creep into dot-com bubble territory for the first time in 20 years.

    https://www.zerohedg...t-time-20-years



    Have a nice weekend - Bulls and Bears I trade what is happening, not what I think will happen.....

    The trend remains up!

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


    Edited by robo, Today, 12:46 PM.

    " “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
    Last edited by robo; 12-14-2019 at 03:48 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1182

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Looking at the MT data - The weekly and the monthly remain in an uptrend...

    Weekly

    VXF has two weeks of sideways action.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...03&a=705911168


    Monthly

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...62&a=706759784
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #1183

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Don't get skewed......

    Sentiment Trader talked about this tonight. You must be a sub to read it, or maybe Tom can talk about it in one of his reports.....

    https://sentimentrader.com/

    Comments.....

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...de-deal/page-3

    We shall see!

    Stock market crash imminent

    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
    Last edited by robo; 12-17-2019 at 06:46 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1184

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Some more comments about Gamma...

    Option expiration is a timestamp where hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. Based upon the settlement markets, profit is booked and risk is purged. All options bets and hedges on the books will settle, roll over, close or expire worthless on the op-ex timestamp. My work shows the repeatability of a few different dynamics, which include: 1) the mean reversion of market price prior towards delta neutral on or before op-ex, and 2) forced selling and/or buying following after a spike in market gamma.

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...flatlines-say/

    Day 40 into my daily warning pattern. The last one was 26 before we had a pullback..... The data is "NOT" a crash indicator. I use it only for risk Management and that is why I'm flat VXF at Vanguard after a very nice daily cycle.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...68&a=707467302

    Weekly

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...03&a=705911168
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1185

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    How about those Rydex traders!

    The trend remains up on my daily, weekly and monthly trend trading charts. Watch the sky if you want to, but I just watch the daily and weekly trends and trade them.....
    I track the Rydex dudes too... I get my Rydex data from sentiment trader....

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...c/172299-long/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #1186

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Watch out for the GAMMA!

    Will The Last 2-Weeks Of 2019 Be The Inverse of 2018?
    Written by Erik Lytikainen | Dec 18, 2019

    Every professional investor knows that month-ending, quarter-ending and year-ending timestamps are important. Throughout the year, positions are hedged against these timestamps, and as a result, the year-ending option expirations almost always have the highest open interest. Generally, the higher the open interest the greater the volatility and financial risk.

    Last December, in and around the final option expiration of the year, the S&P 500 fell by nearly 300 points. This dramatic decline coincided with a spike in market gamma as shown below. It is my view that this decline was furthered by forced selling by the put sellers who needed to sell the S&P 500 index to cut their losses.

    As we approach this year and the S&P 500 continues to grind higher, we may be facing the inverse of last year. Call sellers are beginning to feel more pain, as evidenced by a first-time spike in Forecast Gamma Neutral in my December 17th report. While I am not saying that stocks will melt up through the remainder of the year, the possibility of that scenario playing out is looking more likely. The chart below shows the relationship between the cash value in the SPX and the metric that I call Gamma Neutral.

    SPX Value versus Prompt-Month Gamma Neutral

    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wil...verse-of-2018/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1187

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    What's A 'Gamma Flip' (And Why Should You Care)
    Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
    by Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/19/2019 - 10:15


    Authored by Thorsten Wegener via MacroHive.com,

    There is a new buzzword in town: ‘Gamma Flip’. It is used to explain (due to a lack of any sane explanation for current market behaviour) why the S&P seems stuck at practically all-time highs and what might happen if things turn bad. In fact, it is so hot that even TV pundits are elaborating on its potential advantages and dangers. But what exactly is it?

    The Flip
    The expression ‘gamma flip’ simply describes the point where long gamma positions of those who use them turn into short gamma positions for those who actually would have a need to use them, but don’t have them. In other words, it’s the point in the market where you want to step back and graciously wait until the forces of good and evil have battled it out and more sane explanations like macro factors, corporate earnings, or illusive trade deals make the headlines again. That’s it. That’s the simple explanation.

    What I haven’t told you is that gamma also reacts in mysterious ways in relation to time, volatility, and distance to spot markets. But that must wait for another column. In the meantime, the gamma flip is supposed to happen at levels of roughly 3070 points in the S&P. Of course, it might just slowly fade away while we see new highs. If you read this column at some future date, we will know what has happened.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wh...hould-you-care
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1188

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    More extremes.....



    Stocks & VIX Decouple Ahead Of Op-Ex, Bond Dump-n-Pump Pattern Continues
    Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
    by Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/19/2019 - 16:00

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/st...tern-continues
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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