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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1153

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Ok, I get that there is lots of warning signals, and that's why I went flat..... But to continue to short this market, as it is trending "UP", and have your stops hit every other week, or remove them is very poor trading in my opinion..... Tracking a few trading systems that are a real waste of money in a market like this one. The "TREND" is up period. Go to cash if you think the risk is to high ( I did) but riding down TVIX or any other triple leverage index is not what I would be doing. I'm waiting on the next VXX or TVIX buy signal.... Made a few bucks day trading it, but It continues to trend DOWN!

    I'm a serious trader too, but I use the daily and trade what is happening (the trend) and not what I think will happen based on data points and charts.... I hate this market, but VFX just keeps moving high. That is what I trade at Vanguard. It's close to the S Fund.....

    The services here are much better for trend trading..... Using the Daily and the weekly data, and Tom points out the risks in his comments. Some are hitting "EXTREMES" for sure.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ_P...ature=youtu.be


    Using the 10 DMA you can see that the daily trend ( daily closing prices) for the last 34 days has been UP! I'm not going to stay long in this market, but I'm not ready to short it yet...... Good luck for those that are...... I know some use VXX as a hedge, but I'm not talking about those trading systems....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...01&a=702047273

    VST trading the 2 hour chart
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...52&a=703005368
    Last edited by robo; 11-27-2019 at 01:32 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1154

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The extremes continue to get more extreme.....

    Bottom Line - The trend remains up, but the Risk is very high now........



    SentimenTrader

    Verified account

    @sentimentrader
    2h2 hours ago
    More
    Our Intermediate Term Optimism Index's 20 day average (a sentiment indicator) is extremely high.

    When it was this high in the past, $SPX fell 73% of the time 1 week later, and $VIX jumped 82% of the time 2-4 weeks later

    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1155

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Looks like a sell signal today for my system, (waiting on the closing price first - must close below the 10 DMA) but I'm already flat. I'm waiting on the next buy signal, which should give me a much lower risk buy in level...... So while I wait - Please pass the popcorn, and I will continue to only VST trade.... Trading some VXX. I'm expecting the VIX smashers to show up soon.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...97&a=702047273
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #1156

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    I use cycles as part of my warning indicators, but the trend is always the most important indicator.... Waiting on the next cycle low.....

    Posted on December 2, 2019

    On Saturday we noted that stocks had formed a daily swing high. They delivered bearish follow through on Monday.



    Monday was day 41 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Closing below the 10 day MA indicates that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. The daily cycle decline typically lasts 7 - 10 days. The peak on day 39 locks in a right translated cycle formation which gives us the expectation that stocks will form a higher daily daily cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...-correction-3/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1157

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Waiting to see how this daily cycle plays out...... VST trading VXX....... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...73&a=703005368

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...late-breaking/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #1158

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The the 10 DMA and the 20 DMA for VXF didn't hold, but the dippers be coming in.... The 50 DMA is up next "IF" we continue lower.... The gap at the 50 DMA should fill, but that's a "GUESS". I remain flat, and trade the trend no matter what the news cycle is doing.

    I took profits on my VXX trade even though VXX remains on a buy...... one of a few tranches I had, but VXX is best used as a hedge. However, I'm flat VXF so I take profits quickly.

    The following order executed on 12/03/2019 at 9:31 AM, Eastern time:

    Account:
    Transaction type: Sell
    Order type: Limit
    Security: BARCLAYS IPATH SER B S&P 500 VIX SHORT TERM FUTURE ETN (VXX)
    Quantity: 400 share(s)
    Price:* $18.75

    Waiting.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...23&a=702774295



    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels

    Tuesday 9:50:

    Daily LOLR STS
    Up Down* Down
    1/6 0/7 2/5

    *LOLR SELL Extrapolated for 10 AM

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
    Last edited by robo; 12-03-2019 at 10:10 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #1159

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The weekly data I track is for investors. It indicates hold long positions, but I trade the daily, and I'm NOT an investor.... I trade the daily cycles.....

    Watching XES for a buy signal....... Waiting to see if we get a weekly sell signal and a failed weekly cycle...... This is week 8 for the new intermediate cycle......

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XE...67&a=704155523



    OFFICIAL LOLR SELL SIGNAL – This is a Critically Important TREND Signal, not a signal for immediate trades
    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    I say we shall see, because I trade the trend........

    Stock market mini crash underway

    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
    Last edited by robo; 12-03-2019 at 12:30 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1160

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    In 2000 and 2008 the start of a rate cut cycle indicated a bear market for stocks was getting close.... Many seem to think it's going to be different this time..... LOL.... I can't wait to see how this plays out....

    I'm flat and waiting for the next cycle low to go long again. In 2008 IWM did test its all time high before moving down.... There should be some good swings to trade, but investors will hate it IF it happens....

    The daily trend remains down, and I remain flat.

    The monthly data below, and the SPX was getting very stretched above the 10 month moving average..... ( Many investors love stocks and the data indicates hold long positions) LOL.... well most CNBC investors

    Is this a repeat of 1999? ( see chart below when they lowered rates and the market bounced for several months) Don't know or care since I will just trade what is happening and not what I think will happen.

    A BT of the 10 or 20 or more..... maybe less! We shall see.......

    Did anyone buy IWM at $30.00ish in 2008 and hold?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...53&a=701224970
    Last edited by robo; 12-03-2019 at 01:32 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1161

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    LOL.... (The Perfect Trade Entry) It is luck when it happens in my opinion.....


    The Perfect Trade Entry
    Posted on December 3, 2019

    The perfect trade entry for the new intermediate Miner cycle would have been when the Miners formed a weekly swing low during the 3rd week of November. But the Miners did not close above the 10 week MA nor above the declining weekly trend line so in real time we could not be certain that week 28 hosted the ICL.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

    My trend trading charts....

    Daily

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...47&a=703319629

    Weekly

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...05&a=704242674

    Gold still hasn't given me a weekly buy signal, but the miners are looking ok. The question is will gold follow the miners? We shall see..... GLD is an important indicator to me, and it remains under its 10 WMA.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...87&a=704242805

    I do "NOT" have this service. It's a free report..... I have my own trading system for trading the miners.....
    FREE GOLD REPORT - DECEMBER 3, 2019
    View this post on GoldPredict.com


    If gold continues higher into Friday’s close, then the odds support a 6-month low at $1446.20 on November 12th.

    If gold slips back below $1470 in the coming days, then this is likely an early December top, and prices are positioning for one final decline towards the 200-day MA.

    As I said, the next few days are crucial. If the market believes Trump about China and the next rounds of tariffs go through on December 15th, then gold will likely continue higher.

    If today was just a kneejerk reaction, and Trump walks back his statement, then gold could be topping and break lower one last time before bottoming.

    https://goldpredict.com/archives/22415
    Last edited by robo; 12-03-2019 at 07:14 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #1162

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Mystery S&P Put Buyer Makes $31 Million Profit In 24 Hours, Covers Half Of Position

    Yesterday we reported that a mystery trader, who was expecting a sharp drop in the market over the next 6 weeks, bought 16,000 January 2,980 S&P puts, spending $32 million to protect against a 4.5% drop in the index at 9:44am on Monday morning, about 15 minutes before the latest dismal Manufacturing ISM sent stocks tumbling.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/my...-half-position


    LOL...Nice trade, and it takes money to make money.....
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1163

    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    A 24 hour double? Nice!

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  23. #1164

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    LOL..... Real Nice Brother! Even if I had that kind of money I don't think I could place a bet like that one....
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  24.  
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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