Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
21 days on the long side for VXF, and the trend remains up! (Hold long positions)
IWM still having some trouble in the red zone...... The $CPC and The Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread hitting extremes. Two of the four important indicators I track for Risk Management. I use it to help me determine the size of my long position during the current cycle. Which is getting long for the daily cycle....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...67&a=698420604
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
I'm going flat even though my daily trend trading system remains on a buy signal (It remain long). ( This flat position is for my daily trend trading system using VXF at Vanguard). I will be only VST and day-trading in the short-term using a different account until the warning indicators I use changes from this current extreme level.... Risk Management..... These indicators are currently giving very high odds of a pull-back. However, that doesn't mean it will happen soon or it might not even happen at all. Again, this is a Risk Management Call after a nice run....
Updated VXF daily trend trading chart..... LOL.... It's easy money Friday today so we "should" close green.....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...50&a=698420604
I'm currently VST trading 3 indexes, but I will not be posting them here at TSP.....
I did buy some GDXJ today.... a small tranche...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GL...15&a=698427765
Have a nice day! LOL.... you have to love those tweets if you are long.
SentimenTrader
Verified account
@sentimentrader
5h5 hours ago
Whoa, the Trump Tweet-O-Meter is staging a furious comeback.
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
IWM VXF daily. Still having trouble in the Red Zone..... I'm flat....
Have a nice weekend!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...34&a=698420604
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
The last time the current extremes were hit was late July. After that VXF had a (-8%) move down in the weeks that followed. However, for now the trend remains up, and I'm on a hold long position. We shall see how this data plays out this time....
Note the black dotted vertical line on the chart, and the VIX at 12.07 in July. It just repeated, but it's the combined data points "of all the other indicators" I use that increase the odds for a pull-back. Only 3 of the indicators I track are on the VXF daily trend trading chart below, but they are important ones. My system remains long, but the warning indicators are hitting extremes.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...32&a=698911440
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Jeff Clark's Market Minute
Forget the Yield Curve Inversion. Now’s the Time to Be Concerned…
Published November 11, 2019 - 7:30 AM
Treasury bond prices have collapsed.
As a result, long-term interest rates have increased. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has jumped from 1.5% a few weeks ago to 1.95% today.
And, Wall Street is saying, “Whew.”
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/
The 11/09/19 Weekend Report Preview
Posted on November 9, 201
Stocks printed their higher s point on Thursday, day 25, to lock in a right translated daily cycle formation. Friday was day 26, which places stocks 4 days shy of its timing band for a daily cycle decline. The right translated cycle formation has us expecting stocks to print a higher daily cycle low. Stocks have established a daily cycle trend line. So a swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...eport-preview/
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
A Striking Collection of Duck-Like Features
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
November 2019
When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck.
– James Whitcomb Riley
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc191111/
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
Day 24 since the VXX sell signal and the VFX buy signal..... Looking weak.......
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...14&a=698911440
SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels
29m29 minutes ago
STS SELL Signal
Tuesday 3:30:
Daily LOLR STS
Up Down Down
4/3 2/5 0/7
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
"Negative Rates" Crazy in my opinion.....
Trump Talks Trade, Praises Negative Rates At Economic Club Of New York
Tue, 11/12/2019 - 13:00
The president reiterated his criticism of the Fed, which he has repeatedly bashed for not cutting interest rates sooner. Yet, this time he actually called for the central bank to consider cutting rates into negative territory like they have in Europe.
When Trump's praise of negative interest rates only evoked a brief burst of applause, Trump remarked that "only the smart people are clapping."
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...-club-new-york
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
4 Reasons Why A Volatility Event Is On The Horizon
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2019-11-13 at 11:17:30 CST
This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.
Volatility event
Several indicators influenced by the options market are throwing off concerning readings, showing that traders have become complacent about the current trend.
We’re currently seeing weeks of low put/call readings, with low premiums being paid for put protection, very low expectations for an imminent volatility event, and heavy betting against a rise in volatility by speculators.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...n-the-horizon/
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
The first day in 24 IWM closed below its 10 DMA..... VXF remains on a hold long position and VXX remains on a sell position. I remain flat due to the extremes showing up on several of the indicators I track.... We shall see if IWM is trying to tell us something soon... The SPX is overbought going into Friday's OPTX.....
Good Luck to those holding long positions..... As a contrarian The Risk Reward remains to high for me.......With that said, my system remains long (VXF), but IWM went to a sell signal today..... Whipsaw???? Maybe.... Waiting to look over the new data later tonight...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...43&a=699284166
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...14&a=698911440
Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
8m
Over the past 7 days, the S&P 500 is up more than 0.5%.
6 of those 7 days have seen negative breadth on the NYSE.
The last time that happened was December 16, 1999.
(h/t
@MacroCharts
for the concept)
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
1h
Over the past 50 days, investors have shifted away from defensive assets (e.g. low volatility stocks) into the S&P 500.
When the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index fell over the past 50 days while $SPX rallied more than 5% (e.g. now), stocks almost always fell over the next few weeks
https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
My LT data chart below.
In Dec 1999 the market did move down some the next several weeks, but went on to make another new all time high. This is just historical data and not a guess at what I think will happen, I just trade what is happening not what I think will happen
See the party like it's 1999 here... I marked that time frame with a vertical red line.... The SPX did move below the 10 Month moving average so a scary move for some investors.... I trade using the daily.....
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...41&a=696890125
I do not use this for trading, but track cycles from two different sources.....
Raj Times and Cycles
Raj Time and Cycles Daily Email is for both Stock market Swing traders and Day traders, trading the SP emini, ETFs, etc. Precise Master Timing makes all the difference! We use various proprietary Master Time & Cycle techniques to predict future Swing Highs and Lows+/-1,using Change in Trend (CIT) dates. For the Daytraders, we pinpoint the intraday CIT Times for the Highs and Lows +/- 5-10 minutes. We also use an intraday cycle technique that predicts the intraday Highs and Lows.
https://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2...vember-14.html
The two I follow.....
Stocks: Big risk, Gold: Big potential
Smart Money Tracker -
Likesmoney
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/