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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1069

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Interesting, considering what Tony Dwyer was saying yesterday...



    https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-econo...tml#post628296
    If you are a trend trader like me.... you trade the trend. I hate this market, but my system went to buy. Trending above the 10 DMA long, below and trending down cash....

    I trade VXF at Vanguard.... Long or cash just like those here using the S Fund....

    Good Trading!

    Back test it if you like using this chart below.... I use other indicators, but the trend overrules (price) everything else.

    Day 5 of the buy signal Brother..... See the VXF data....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...99&a=693406838

    Is a whipsaw coming? Very possible, but for now the trend remains up on my daily chart....
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1070

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Another indicator I track.... ( For traders only)


    Gamma Trading Signals

    https://seekingalpha.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1152


    Gamma Trading Signals In The S&P 500
    Oct. 17, 2019 2:48 PM ET|About: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)
    As we head into an important monthly option expiration for the stock market this Friday, October 18th, we are pleased to announce the re-launch of our Seeking Alpha Marketplace service, now entitled: Gamma Trading Signals.

    If you are like me, when you hear the word “gamma,” you might think of gamma radiation, Bruce Banner and the Incredible Hulk. This analogy is meaningful. Our price signals show that when there are spikes in gamma, extreme price moves can occur. When gamma spikes out of range , the options market can act like the Hulk, creating havoc and volatility on the underlying market.



    Options Sentiment and Gamma Signals
    Stock market "gamma" has earned increasing attention from the financial media. CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and Zerohedge all regularly talk about market gamma and its impact on market risk. While the mainstream financial media talks about gamma, there is never anything actionable about the information. Gamma signals are usually published by the mainstream media ipso facto – after the fact. Our service is one of the few services that publish gamma trading signals for a retail audience.

    Options Sentiment Report
    Our daily Options Sentiment Report highlights financial risk in markets that have significant volume and open interest in the options market. Since many option expirations have hundreds of millions of dollars at stake on a specific timestamp, our report can be best viewed a “smart money” indicator.

    There are several trading signals from our daily report which are annotated in the chart below. The most common price signal – which applies to all of the markets we cover – is the potential for mean reversion and/or compression between market price and the level of our calculated Gamma Neutral.


    The purple vertical lines on my chart below are Options Expiration dates. (Please note the VIX) The current Options Sentiment and Gamma Signals indicated the odds for IWM moving up this week were tradeable.... It looks like next week we might see some moves coming... My VXX stop still hasn't been tagged, but getting close.... ( I'm still long VXX) I sometimes uses small positions as a hedge for VXF.... No shorting allowed at Vanguard.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...51&a=693406838

    Good Trading!
    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1...Roadblock=true
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1071

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The Miners....

    I have Tuesday as being day 22, which places the Miners in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed on Thursday which signals that Tuesday marked the daily cycle low.

    Since the daily cycle count is not clear we will look at the weekly chart.

    The weekly chart clearly shows us that the Miners peaked on week 18 then formed a weekly swing high on week 19. The Miners went on to print their lowest point this week, which is week 24. That places the Miners in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. A weekly swing low accompanied by a break above the declining weekly trend line would have us label week 24 as the ICL. And a break above the Multi Year Resistance level would indicate a resumption of the Miner bull market.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...iner-action-3/

    Daily....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...99&a=693407144

    Weekly....

    GDX remains in a cash position..... below its 10 WMA - 6 weeks since the NUGT sell signal....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...05&a=690411577

    Good Trading!
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #1072

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    For traders!

    Where the Money Goes in a Market Crash
    Published October 18, 2019 - 7:30 AM
    The S&P 500 peaked in late July.

    The S&P 500 peaked in late July.

    Since then, it has been stuck in a wide trading range between about 2850 on the downside and 3020 on the upside. As we approach the upper end of that trading range, and as technical conditions start to move into overbought territory, the odds of a significant decline increase.

    That decline could start any day.

    In fact, several months ago, I marked October 21 as a probable start date for that decline…

    The next decline phase is likely to be a “rotational” bear market. Money is going to come out of the market’s best-performing names – those momentum stocks with wildly expensive valuations – and rotate into the beaten-down “value” names that have done nothing all year.

    In other words, the best-performing stocks of 2019 are going to get hit, and this year’s worst stocks are going to outperform everything else…

    Even though the S&P 500 is trading near its all-time highest level ever, many stocks and many sectors have already been through their own bear markets. Many retail stocks, for example, are down 50% or more in 2019. They’re trading at decade-low valuations. Many oil and gas stocks are in the same boat.

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/



    My LT data chart - Please note - FCG, XES, OIH..... Looking to buy some FCG, but all could make a 20% or higher run soon..... Some are already on a buy signal... XES went 10 days above the 10 DMA ( a buy signal for me) and then 17 days below and a lower low.... Back above the 10 DMA again, but I'm going to try FCG.

    Good Trading!

    Look how FCG and XES moved up in 2007/2008 before the Bear Market really got going. Everything got sold off later.... However, look at the spike and will it be different this time.... Is the rotation getting closer?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...80&a=694004329

    I don't know what will happen this time, I'm just pointing out what happened the last time - since the point here is a rotation in to value stocks about to happen? We shall see..... No matter what happens I trade the trend, and it overrules everything else.... (price no matter what the volume)

    There is only one side to the market, and that’s the right side. Jesse L. Livermore
    Last edited by robo; 10-18-2019 at 09:13 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1073

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Some important Short-Term Trading news... Watching and waiting on the next tweet to trade!

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...-saturday-vote

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...-will-play-out


    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    13m
    Vote is up in the air, this is going to be CRAZY... protect your capital.

    https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics/s...81268930990081
    Quote Tweet

    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    · 55m
    REPATRIATION... that's the trade now... $EUR and $GBP will be in big demand to satisfy cross-border settlements... at the root of everything is LIQUIDATION - Volume is about to RAMP.
    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    30m
    Currencies and Commodities ROCKING AND ROLLING here
    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    55m
    REPATRIATION... that's the trade now... $EUR and $GBP will be in big demand to satisfy cross-border settlements... at the root of everything is LIQUIDATION - Volume is about to RAMP.
    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    57m
    A fair trade for un-assing themselves from the "end of the E.U." process...
    Quote Tweet

    First Squawk
    @FirstSquawk
    · 1h
    GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS BRITAIN WILL LOSE SOMETHING AFTER BREXIT, NAMELY EASY ACCESS TO THE INTERNAL MARKET

    Follow the story live: Redbox

    The VIX smashers.....


    Yes, you are reading that correctly, the current level of uncertainty is worse than during the collapse of the Soviet Union, the aftermath of 9/11, the great financial crisis around Lehman's bankruptcy, and the Brexit referendum vote.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...lehman-sept-11

    For some context what this means in terms of market risk, on a smoothed basis, this level of uncertainty filtering through to business uncertainty and thus equity risk, would imply a VIX that is well over 50 points higher than its current complacent level...
    Last edited by robo; 10-18-2019 at 10:04 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1074

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Day 6 of the buy signal and the trend remains up... Now what?

    Daily Data charts..... I can see why many traders remain Bullish based on my daily charts..... However, the VIX looks like it might be ready for a move.... Note the OPTX data and the VIX..... ( OPTX = Vertical purple lines) For now the trend remains up, and one should not fight the price..... The Fed is in the game again.....

    Is the next higher low for the VIX completing? Don't know.....but I will be watching..... Bottom Line - The VXF trend remains up! VXF has a ugly little black candle on the daily chart. VXF still has a ways to go for new all time highs, but I trade what I see and it continues to move up.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...71&a=694509390

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...37&a=694509369



    David Rosenberg
    @EconguyRosie
    ·
    18h
    I find it amusing that the stock market promoters love to point at "resilience" because the SPX hovers near 3k. The charts of the NYSE composite and the Russell 2000 index are far from bullish, maybe that's why nobody talks about them!

    https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en



    thomas
    @VolumeDynamics
    ·
    15h
    Hmmm... they didn't exactly gut $VIX today did they... see what happens after the close.

    https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics



    Sven Henrich
    @NorthmanTrader
    ·
    18m
    The Fed will need to print a lot more...
    Quote Tweet

    Carl Quintanilla
    @carlquintanilla
    · 18m
    GOLDMAN: “A sharp decline in cash balances, slow EPS growth, and political scrutiny of buybacks will likely lead to a decline in gross buybacks next year.”

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader



    James DePorre
    @RevShark
    ·
    20h
    The Strong Small-Cap Group Is Keeping Me Optimistic
    The momentum in the broader market is not that strong and the rotational issue continues.

    https://twitter.com/RevShark/
    Last edited by robo; 10-22-2019 at 07:42 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #1075

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1076

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    XES and FCG having trouble staying above the 10 DMA - NUGT back above the 10 DMA and VXF remains on a (hold long position).....

    I hate this market, but I trade what I see happening, not what I think will happen....

    VXF remains on a buy.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XE...86&a=694729127

    Another ugly black candle for VXF? We shall see how it closes, but still NO BEEF!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...58&a=694509369

    IAU and the miners on a buy signal again....

    Long some NUGT for a trade only........

    The miners..... I want to see GDX move back above the 50 DMA with some volume.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GD...44&a=694576197
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1077

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Looking to buy some FCG.... Two days above the 10 DMA so far.... Trying not to get whipsawed......

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XE...54&a=692550855

    It also might be time for some VXX..... waiting on the market......

    My Favorite Sector for the Next Two Months
    Published October 25, 2019 - 7:30 AM
    The price of natural gas almost always blasts higher at some point during the fourth quarter of the year.

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/
    Last edited by robo; 10-25-2019 at 08:49 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #1078

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The next crash could come any day now- says Shiller:

    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-f...220&yptr=yahoo

    Stock Market Crash Near?
    Nobel Laureate Sees 'Bubbles Everywhere'

    When Nobel Laureate and "Irrational Exuberance" author Robert Shiller says he sees bubbles in the financial markets — you'd better listen up. He literally wrote the book on stock market crashes and bubbles after all.

    "I see a bubbles everywhere," Shiller, economics professor at Yale University and author of just-published "Narrative Economics" told investors gathered in Los Angeles Wednesday. "There's no place to go. You just have to ride it out. You invest even though you expect the price to decline." Shiller famously predicted the 2000 stock market crash and the 2007 crash of the housing market.

    A good article- scares me upright in my seat. He's got some good points to ponder. Investors Business Daily article.

    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-f...220&yptr=yahoo








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  21. #1079

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    I be looking to take a VXX trade..... Waiting.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...04&a=695440781

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...63&a=686340209

    The IWM/SPY divergence remains a concern..... I remain on a buy signal even though I hate this market..... Day 11 of the buy signal...... I trade VXF at Vanguard - I'm either long or cash....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...87&a=695486359

    Have a nice weekend!
    Last edited by robo; 10-25-2019 at 05:01 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1080

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The SPY/IWM historical monthly tracking data ..... The good news is it's back above the 20 MA..... The bad news is the divergence continues..... The Fed be pumping money into the markets again, so it could change things. We shall see..... None of it matters to me since I trade the daily trend, and it remains up. Monday will be day 12 above the 10 DMA.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...27&a=692181751

    LOL.... When I look over this data I remember getting over 10% on CD's from the credit union...... Good old days in my opinion..... When saving meant something, and you made a decent living with one paycheck......
    Last edited by robo; 10-25-2019 at 05:29 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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