Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

The 1/21/16 Morning Report
by likesmoneystudies


Stocks appear to be in the process of forming a bullish weekly reversal which will ease the parameters for forming a weekly swing low. With stocks in their timing band for an intermediate low, a new daily cycle could also signal a new weekly cycle. Following a weekly swing low, a weekly close above the lower weekly cycle band will signal a new intermediate cycle.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...smoneystudies/

A nice gap up this morning, and the Smart Money continues to turn Bullish......Will traders want to hold over the weekend?

We shall see!

Charts below by Sentiment trader: A must service in my opinion for serious traders.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader

sentimenTrader - Stock Market Sentiment Research


VXF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Energy
by likesmoneystudies

Both oil and energy printed their lowest point on Thursday after an extended decline. Thursday was day 24 for oil and day 19 for XLE. This places oil one day shy of its timing band for a daily cycle low, while it places XLE in its timing band for a daily cycle low.

Both formed a swing low today to signal a new daily cycle. Now a break of the daily cycle trend lines will confirm a new daily cycle for both.

NATGAS also formed a swing low on Thursday.


https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...smoneystudies/

One Last Chance for the Bulls to Take Charge
By Jeff Clark
Thursday, January 21, 2016

The next seven trading days will determine the market’s fate.

All of the major averages are down sharply from last May’s highs, and much of that damage occurred in just the past three weeks.

But we can’t give up on the bull market yet – at least, not until the end of the month…

Take a look at the following monthly chart of the S&P 500 plotted against its 20-month exponential moving average (EMA)…

This is important because even if the market doesn’t snap back right away this time, it will rally at some point. And it’s normal for the market to come back and test its breakdown level. So we’re likely to see the S&P 500 rally back up to its 20-month EMA line at some point. I’m betting it happens sooner rather than later.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

One Last Chance for the Bulls to Take Charge

How Billionaires Are Investing In 2016: "The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play The Game" | Zero Hedge

Cash! " "The trade now is to hold as much cash as possible,” said Nikhil Srinivasan, chief investment officer for Generali, a European insurer with $480 billion in assets. "Equity markets could go down 15% to 20%.""

January 25, 2016
Wicked Skew: When Extreme Losses are Standard Outcomes


Presently, I view the likelihood of a U.S. recession as high. In light of the hostile market return/risk profile associated with present market conditions, I also increasingly suspect that the initial part of the completion of the current market cycle (though not the full completion) may emerge in the form of a nearly vertical loss, with a material break of the highly-monitored 1820 area on the S&P 500 as a likely catalyst for concerted selling by trend-following investors. A fairly run-of-the-mill outcome, in the context of present conditions, would be a further vertical retreat on the order of 14% following that break. Such a decline would take the S&P 500 to about 1560, which is interesting because that’s a widely followed level corresponding to the 2000 and 2007 market peaks. I doubt that the full market cycle would be completed by such loss, but even the most severe bear markets have had an ebb-and-flow that typically punctuates periods of decline with periods of stabilization and advance.

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment - Wicked Skew: When Extreme Losses are Standard Outcomes - January 25, 2016

How to Trade Today's Volatile Market
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, January 26, 2016

The charts are a mess.

The steep decline in the stock market so far this year has caused a lot of technical damage to all the indexes and most stocks. It's going to take several weeks of back-and-forth, choppy action to give stocks a chance to settle down and offer any sort of tradable pattern.



If the stock market is transitioning from bullish to bearish, the volatile, choppy action we've seen over the past month is going to persist for several more months (at least). The daily charts won't do us much good. Learning to trade off the intraday movement in stocks will give you a good chance to profit.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks

I sold my GDXJ at the close today,....Waiting.

I'm still holding VXF.....

GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

$NAMO - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


$HUI:$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

VXF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

UUP - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD...90&a=432639715

Waiting on the Fed comments...


The machines (algos) trying to stay above the 50 DMA for GDX, but it's GLD that will determine the finally outcome.

I'm flat the mines again as my system went to cash.....( no position)

GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GDX back testing the 50 DMA again– will she hold? Is it going to be different this time? We wait!

GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

VXF


VXF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Selling two tranches of VXF at the close.....

See links above.....

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...FundIntExt=INT