Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Reducing my miner positions, and selling my GDXJ after this move up, but will hold GDX.

Good trading.

I'm going to keep the USLV shares I bought this morning and hold them as a position trade for now. I don't like holding 3X indexes very long, but silver hasn't been to volatile lately, the position is fairly small, and my trading account currently has lots of cash. I should have bought AGQ if I was going to make this a position trade.

1/21/2014 9:39:05 AM ET USLV Bought USLV @ $47.3 Executed

Good trading.

Can the Market Get Its Mojo Back?

Tuesday, January 21, 9:25 a.m.

We’re three weeks into the new year and while some individual stocks have made significant moves, some big winners and some big losers, the overall market has been lethargic. A few triple-digit moves by the Dow (five), but in both directions, no traction either way.

The result is that the Dow is down 0.7% so far this year, and the S&P 500 down 0.5%.

That ‘s not a good showing so far for a month with a history of being a positive month as well as being a harbinger for the full year.

But neither is it any indication of a pending collapse, with even short-term support levels and trends remaining intact.

- Street Smart Report Online

I just sold my GDX in the Pre-market.

Good trading.

This is update #1965 for Tuesday night, January 21, 2014.


In the beginning of a new calendar year, investors sometimes buy the top performers of the previous year while selling the biggest losers. That definitely does not seem to be the case in 2014. Instead, most investors are buying whatever has been working best so far this year, while ignoring past history. Thus, Treasuries are being steadily purchased; mining shares (except for coal mining) continue to be bought even on days when their underlying commodities are lower; the S&P 500 continues to pretend to set new highs, while not actually surpassing its after-hours peak of December 31, 2013 and mostly going net sideways; emerging market shares continue to slump along with coal mining shares; and recently hot individual names receive unusually overhyped media attention and additional amateur buying. All in all, it's typical behavior for an extended transitional period between a major bull market and a severe bear market.

True Contrarian

Jan. 17, 2014, 9:00 a.m. EST
3 signs stocks are overpriced
These indicators all look bearish now

Wall Street will tell you stocks are still a good investment because they are reasonably valued when compared with last year’s earnings, using the “trailing price-earnings ratio.”

Wall Street will tell you stocks are still a good investment because they are reasonably valued compared with next year’s forecast earnings, using the “forward price-earnings ratio.”

Wall Street will tell you stocks still offer good value because the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates on bonds and bank deposits so low—what we might call the “Quantitative Easing” argument.

Wall Street will tell you stocks must be a good investment because they have done so well over the past thirty years.

Wall Street is spinning you a line.

3 signs stocks are overpriced - Brett Arends's ROI - MarketWatch

Views from Gary Savage – Wed 22 Jan, 2014

Gary is concerned.

Gary is concerned. « Korelin Economics Report

Will the gap get filled? Waiting and flat the miners...while I wait and see if gold can get back above 1250. We are getting late in this daily cycle so the Bulls need to get going before we head back down into the next DCL.....


$HUI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/hui.png


http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.co...live_chart.htm

If all of this were true, the markets should be going down... right?

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

If all of this were true, the markets should be going down... right?

I'm not sure why you would ask me that question since you know the answer, but I'll take the bait since I have lots of time on my hands. Sure, the market continues to grind higher day-after-day just like it did when it topped in 2000 and 2007, and it appears this Bull will last forever. Ha....maybe it will last forever, and I'm wrong....and Dow 30,000 is on the way.

I guess you are talking about the US markets, because many others are down, and will probably bounce soon. We still have a chance for Blow off Tops in some markets, or many other possible scenarios, but to answer your question it will not be straight down, and tops are a process. This Bull will continue to drag on until it doesn't, but the signs are there for folks that know how to read them that the 3 Bears are coming.

Most investors will never see the next Bear Coming, and traders will continue to buy the dips as they have been conditioned to do during this Bull, but one day the market will not bounce back. In my opinion it will not be like the 2008 sell-off, but who can say for sure. As I said, Tops are a process, and NO ONE knows for sure, but my Risk Management data tells me that 100% moves into the S Fund is not something to be doing right now. During a Bull Market all early moves into stocks are corrected by the Bull, and it makes most Traders and Market Timers look pretty darn smart. During a Bear, (and I think we are close) a 100% move into the S Fund will not be fun if you are wrong, and we get more then these little 5% corrections. There could still be plenty of Big swings coming our way as the Bull dies, or maybe the Bull has years to go, but I'll stand by my opinion for now, and stay in the G Fund.

Again, I could be wrong and DOW 30,000 is on the way, but going against the data I have, and using my Risk Management rules, I'll be in the G Fund with my TSP and 401k retirement money. However, I might make some moves if I thought the set-up was good. As I said Tops are a process, and this Bull will not die easily.... I have a trading account for gambling, and I will not do that with my retirement money again...I have in the past!


Take Care and It's not what you don't know that hurts you, it is what you know that isn't so. I read that comment at another chat room, and thought about the so called CNBC Guru's when I read it.

The $23 Trillion Credit Bubble In China Is Starting To Collapse – Global Financial Crisis Next?

By Michael Snyder, on January 20th, 2014

Did you know that financial institutions all over the world are warning that we could see a "mega default" on a very prominent high-yield investment product in China on January 31st? We are being told that this could lead to a cascading collapse of the shadow banking system in China which could potentially result in "sky-high interest rates" and "a precipitous plunge in credit". In other words, it could be a "Lehman Brothers moment" for Asia. And since the global financial system is more interconnected today than ever before, that would be very bad news for the United States as well. Since Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, the level of private domestic credit in China has risen from $9 trillion to an astounding $23 trillion. That is an increase of $14 trillion in just a little bit more than 5 years. Much of that "hot money" has flowed into stocks, bonds and real estate in the United States. So what do you think is going to happen when that bubble collapses?

The $23 Trillion Credit Bubble In China Is Starting To Collapse – Global Financial Crisis Next?