Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Originally Posted by robo

Gold testing 1180 again next week. Sure, it's possible so we shall wait and see!

That would be wonderful for my DUST position

Originally Posted by CrabClaw

That would be wonderful for my DUST position

I hear Ya Brotherman......I still have my small short position, and it's a loser for now. Savage is on hold, SuperforeSignals sent out a take some profits on (GDXJ) last week, TRI has a position in GDX, Quad I'm not sure since it's the free 30 day trail, and Rambus has several buys on JNUG and a few NUGT, but he is a Trend Trader and not a short-term trader like we are doing. My long-term guy Kaplan has been buying the miners for sometime now, but he will not be selling anytime soon ( only adding on weakness). I follow him with my GDX and GDXJ position trades which both are currently losers.

I'm going to continue to short-term trade for now, and not leave big gains on the table no matter how much higher the move up goes using 3X indexes. More then once in 2013 I had a 20% gain and it turned into a 20% loss real quick.

No, I will not hold NUGT, DUST, JNUG, JUST, very long this year and I'm trying to keep position sizes much smaller. I had times in 2013 that I would buy 5000 shares of JNUG in a couple of days during a Big Sell-off...Trying not to do that this year. Ha.....Trying I Said!

Good luck on your trade next week, and there is plenty of money to be made trading the miners both ways. However, It sure looks like the trend is changing, and the current move is up. I'll be keeping my DUST trades very small and only day-trades, no over night holding of those positions.

January 20, 2014
Superstition Ain't the Way

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.



We currently estimate a negative prospective total return for the S&P 500 on all horizons of less than 7 years, with prospective nominal total returns most probably within the range of 0-3% over the coming decade. Notably, these estimates draw from the same valuation methods that – in real time – correctly warned of negative 10-year returns in 2000, defended us against the bulk of the 2007-2009 collapse, and estimated positive 10-year prospective returns in the 10-14% range in early 2009 (our stress-testing response at the time was emphatically not driven by valuation concerns). At an index level, the S&P 500 is richer than it was in 1937, 1972 and 1987. Valuations are similar to those at the 2007 peak and all but the final weeks of the 1929 peak. Index valuations are clearly less extreme than in 2000, but even so, the overvaluation of the median stock has never been greater than at present.

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Superstition Ain't the Way - January 20, 2014

A Very Telling Week For Gold: Wagner

Jan 20, 2014


Kitco News speaks with Gary Wagner about gold and silver as markets close for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Wagner says that gold is currently at an important crossroads and a lot can be deduced from its next move. “We’re right at the point at which if [gold] breaks through the resistance line it’s a very bullish signal. If it backs off, it tells us something different,” he says. “Gold is attempting to find footing.” With regards to ... (read more)

A Very Telling Week For Gold: Wagner - Kitco

The morning smack down for gold is on..... Wash - Rinse - Repeat....

I will be trying another TZA trade again today. It will be a beer money trade (very small position size).

I just sold my shares of JDST I bought @ $36.8999 in the pre-market....holding remaining shares for now....I don't like holding short positions counter-trend and I think the trend is up. However, this could always just be another Bull Trap.... My next buy will be NUGT...

1/21/2014 8:38:35 AM ET JDST Sold JDST @ $38.2 Executed

Update #1964: Monday night, January 20, 2014: remaining gems.

Increasing negative divergences are appearing with U.S. general equity indices, although they are mostly being ignored by investors who often only pay attention to closing Dow numbers. I will talk more about this in upcoming updates. Most mining shares, with the notable exception of coal mining, have been doing the opposite with positive divergences and the weakest behavior near the open when amateurs predominate. The weakest currencies of 2013 are likely to be among the strongest performers of 2014, notably including the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars, along with the Brazilian real and Russian ruble. Lesser-known emerging-market currencies including the Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht will also be strong in the upcoming year. Emerging-market equities are likely bottoming on schedule several weeks after mining shares had done likewise (at 8:30 a.m. on December 6, 2013), similar to the way they bottomed in late August 2013 after mining shares had slumped to important nadirs in late June 2013.

True Contrarian

Why not some Silver?


1/21/2014 9:39:05 AM ET USLV Bought USLV @ $47.3 Executed

Good trading.

Originally Posted by robo

I just sold my shares of JDST I bought @ $36.8999 in the pre-market....holding remaining shares for now....I don't like holding short positions counter-trend and I think the trend is up. However, this could always just be another Bull Trap.... My next buy will be NUGT...

1/21/2014 8:38:35 AM ET JDST Sold JDST @ $38.2 Executed

exited my DUST for a 4.5% loss. still going down. on to the next trade.

Originally Posted by CrabClaw

exited my DUST for a 4.5% loss. still going down. on to the next trade.

The miners bounced right back after the morning dip, I'm going to wait until we get deeper into this cycle to try another DUST or JDST trade. I'm not going to day-trade JDST again because it's not very liquid. I'm going to stick with DUST trades, but not very often. I took a small USLV and TZA trade again, but I haven't had many winners trading them lately. It's just wins over losses day-trading these 3X indexes ( coin toss trades I call them). Sold my remaining JDST and mostly in cash again in my trading account.

I'm still holding my USLV and TZA that I added this morning. Came close to buying JNUG this morning during the dip, but didn't....That looks like it would have been a sweet day-trade, and I would have already sold.

Good luck on your trades.

Originally Posted by CrabClaw

exited my DUST for a 4.5% loss. still going down. on to the next trade.

I hear Brotherman about moving on to the next trade. Short-term trading is about wins over losses....I might just make a few bucks on my TZA trade I took this morning, but it's early in the day, and the Bulls love the small caps. JNUG is smoking upwards again....3 of my paid services are just watching the gold miner small caps rally, I made a nice chunk of money off them the last few weeks, but I don't chase this late in a daily cycle. The guy that sent me the signal to take some GDXJ profits I think was a little early...ha...I was too.

Like you said...on to the next trade!

Again, good luck on your next trade.