Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

It's the way I'm playing it.

Robo


Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Not Buying It


With the economy in such dire straits, I am only taking the lowest risk long setups. That would happen once the market is approaching maximum oversold. We are a long ways from that. That does not mean we won't get bounces or even that we wont rally to a higher high. It just means that I don't like the risk/reward setup so I won't be participating.


http://capitalobserver.blogspot.com/...buying-it.html

Wednesday, August 11, 2010
COILS IN S&P AND SILVER

We now have a volatility coil forming on the S&P and silver. Contrary to what one might think the initial move out of a coil, although it is often aggressive, usually ends up being a false move soon to be followed by a more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction.

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

Wednesday, 11 August 2010
James Randi and the Seer-Sucker Illusion

Illusion is not Forecasting

Every day, across the world, people forecast the unforecastable and predict that markets will boom, or bust, or stagger sideways like a drunken sailor. Eventually one of their predictions comes true and gullible people everywhere equate this with foresight when, in fact, the forecaster has simply been slipping a note in their pocket each morning. In a world where everyone predicts everything occasionally someone’s going to be right.


http://www.psyfitec.com/2010/08/jame...-illusion.html

Trapped! - 08/11/10

We are in a liquidity, tax and regulatory trap.


"At this stage of recovery, you want Fed policy to be accommodating for investing, but you don't want it to be the reason for investing."
-- Mike O'Rourke, BTIG

http://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=792&catid=15

In Stunning Decision, EU Orders Germany To Start Onboarding "Bad Debt" To Sovereign Balance Sheet: RBS, Fannie, Freddie Next?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/11/2010 11:57 -0500

In what could be the most important news of the day, German Die Zeit reports that, in a stunning move, the EU has ordered Germany to count the holdings of WestLB and Hypo Real Estate (the latter of which failed the stress farce from last month which nobody cares about or remembers anymore) as government debt!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stu...nnie-freddie-n

[EU tried this proposal too, but it didn't fly. I suspect Germany will tell the EU to also go away on including banks in their Federal balance sheets.]

Direct EU taxes idea rejected by UK, France and Germany
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-10936767

Market Condition: Neutral



One of the chief ways financial market participants make sense of events is by drawing parallels with the past.

The subprime crisis, when it first erupted, was widely perceived as the most dangerous financial crisis since the 1930s.

The implication was that it was critical to avoid the policy mistakes that transformed that earlier crisis into a macroeconomic disaster.

Specifically, it was important to avoid an excessively tight monetary policy.

Now, with inflation surging, the popular parallel is not the deflationary 1930s but the stagflationary 1970s.

Again the implication is that it is important for policymakers to avoid past mistakes.
This time, however, past mistakes means a monetary policy that allows inflation expectations to become unanchored.

In fact both analogies are misleading, precisely because market participants and policy makers are aware of this history.

Their awareness means that financial history never repeats itself in the same way.
Biochemists can replicate their experiments because molecules do not learn.

Central bankers lack this luxury.
--Barry Eichengreen, "Back to the 'Thirties with a Twist", August 30, 2008.

August 11, 2010
The S&P 500 closed the day down 2.82%, which is only fractionally above the intraday low.

The year-to-date performance is back in the red at -2.30%, following seven consecutive market days above the 2009 close. The index is 61.0% above the March 9 2009 closing low but 30.4% below the peak in October 2007.

http://dshort.com/

Snicker

Something occurred to me last night: remember how I used to point out how the Fed's prostituting itself kept having a shorter and shorter bullish effect on the market?

At first, the bullish effect last a few months.......then a month.......then a couple of weeks...then the effect could be measured in days......


http://slopeofhope.com/2010/08/snicker.html

I tried to watch CNBS “The Bull Crap Report” - I mean “The Kudlow Report”, but couldn't take Kudlow's comments..... His guest were pretty good, and most were fair - bull and bears, but Kudlow! Same old Pump Monkey....I'm looking to go long again also, but not because of anything I ever hear on CNBS and especially from Kudlow.
I think Tyler has it correct and he is a daily read for me. A site I don’t mind donating some Beer Money to.

Good Trading!

Robo


Contrary To CNBC's Persistent Lies, Volume Surges


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/11/2010 15:11 -0500

Bob PisaniReality


Another day, another desperate attempt by GE's propaganda branch to keep its viewers disconnected with reality. Case in point: Bob Pisani, who has now said about 100 times that "volume was very low, no bids were hit, etc, etc." The truth: yes to the latter, and a blatant lie on the former.


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/con...-volume-surges