Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

(Post copied from http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/commoditie...gold-etfs.html)


Ultra Gold ETF differences.

NUGT vs. JNUG...




DUST vs. JDST...

Small caps usually out perform the Big Caps coming out of a cycle low, and if we are close to a bottom ( I think we are) GDXJ should double easily in 2014, so JNUG will do very well also. I will be selling rips based on cycle data, but the first few months coming off the lows will be much greater then most folks can imagine based on the large short-cover rally they will have. Now, I could be wrong about this, but my money is were I think the miners are heading and that is up in 2014.

For day-trading I like to use NUGT due to it having lots of liquidity for fast trades. I just sold some NUGT recently to have lots of cash on hand in case the crooks take a run at the June lows for gold next week (1180). Those funds will be clear for Monday, and my position size was also getting to large for NUGT and JNUG. My Risk Management is my position size, because you can Blow-up an account trading 3x indexes as most folks that trade already know here at TSPtalk.. I will be depositing my Wife's 2014 Roth money ( 6500 dollars) the first day Scottrade allows me, and buying GDXJ with those funds in 3 or 4 traunches.

However, I'm currently ( Bottom Fishing the miners in my trading account - not a good thing to do) and trying to catch the next DCL and a possible YCL using JNUG for a multi-day move. The gains could be over 50% in a matter of days, and could be even higher. Could we go lower? Sure, but this is very high risk trading, and that's what I like to do in one of my trading accounts. For longer-term accounts it's GDX and GDXJ only. I also like to trade USLV if the set-up looks good. I currently have around 4000 shares of JNUG and this trade is currently up and can be gone quickly as you know.

From my Scottrade account - (Portfolio G/L ($|%): 16.95% ) so I'm going to let it run some more. You can lose 20% in a day with the miners, but that account is a small part of my total portfolio. I moved some of my TSP money into a Scottrade account when I retired with a plan to get Rich.....ha....that hasn't worked out, but I love to short-term trade win - lose or draw.... Lately I have been doing well trading, and we will just say that I have been lucky even though I use plenty of data and paid services before buying.

GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

JNUG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

JNUG: Summary for Direxion Daily Junior Gold Mine- Yahoo! Finance

Are you short-term trading NUGT or taking a longer-term position? I could care less about the decay when I'm short-term trading.

Good trading to you next week.

Long GDX GDXJ TSP - G Fund

Short-term Trading JNUG.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Wow, big difference in gains on Friday between the two, but the real big difference is volume. NUGT traded 5.3 million shares Friday, and JNUG traded just 65,000.

NUGT,JNUG | Stock Prices | Quote Comparison | YAHOO! Finance


Is there JNUG equivalent short (Like DUST?)

You know I voted on the current poll......."Got Gold" and the Miners should do very well in my opinion.

Originally Posted by robo

Are you short-term trading NUGT or taking a longer-term position? I could care less about the decay when I'm short-term trading.

Good trading to you next week.

Im in 400 shares of NUGT at $27.63 for a short term trade. I usually bail when I gain 10% and wait for the next one. That has worked well for me this fall even though I have endured some hefty downdrafts along the way. These funds are not for the faint of heart, thats for sure. Good trading to you also, hope we get a rip for a few days.

Originally Posted by CrabClaw

Im in 400 shares of NUGT at $27.63 for a short term trade. I usually bail when I gain 10% and wait for the next one. That has worked well for me this fall even though I have endured some hefty downdrafts along the way. These funds are not for the faint of heart, thats for sure. Good trading to you also, hope we get a rip for a few days.

CrabClaw,

I have been using a similar strategy myself for many months now. However, I'm playing this like the June lows will hold and the YCL is in ( which could be a big mistake). If the low for gold is in (STBD) - we could see a real rip-your-face-off short covering rally soon in the miners. I'm up 16% on this current trade, but don't want to sell now just before a possible 30% up move in one week, and in my opinion it could be very close.....For us short-term traders it's always when will the move up come if you are long, because being early using a 3x index is wrong, and not very good on your trading account.

I hang out in a chat room daily with other traders trading the metals and miners, and they are still mixed with what's up next, but I'm long. Plenty of folks have blown-up trading accounts trying to pick a bottom for the miners. Next week I could be wishing I would have taken the gains, but for now I will just BTFD with weakness if the crooks can run the stops at 1180.

Good luck to you on your trade next week.


GDX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

thanks for your insight. I will most likely pull at least half my shares at that 10% mark unless it is a obvious blistering up move in which I will use a trailing stop.

good luck to you also!

Being Street Smart

By Sy Harding

Investor Expectations Also Need Tapering As We Enter 2014.
December 27, 2013.
Psychologists say much of the reason investors have such a dismal record of buying high and selling low, of being excited and buying enthusiastically at market tops and then bailing out in disgust at market bottoms, can be explained by the 'recency bias' of the human brain.

Decision Point®: Being Street Smart -- Sy Harding

Got Gold Miners and Gold?


KER Commentary – Fri 27 Dec, 2013


I don’t see changing the focus for a long, long time!

I don’t see changing the focus for a long, long time! « Korelin Economics Report

Gold Stocks Bull Wedge & Fib Line Target Charts

Created by Camtasia Studio 7

This is special intraday update #1957a for Thursday after-hours, December 26, 2013.


I bought HDGE at 12.7972 shortly before the close of regular-hours trading using 0.10% of my net worth, which I would rate as a 7 on a scale of 0 through 10. HDGE is an actively managed fund of pure U.S. equity short positions. This fund is likely to be among the top winners as we experience a major bear market for general U.S. equity indices during the upcoming two to three years. If you prefer to sell short directly, I would recommend shorting high-dividend assets including XLP and XLU which have already been in quietly grinding downtrends for several weeks or months. The advantage of HDGE is that if it is held for at least one year and one day then it legally qualifies as a long-term capital gain which has a lower U.S. federal tax rate; if you hold a short position for more than a year then it still counts as a short-term capital gain.

True Contrarian

Disclosure: Since May 2012 I have been progressively accumulating long positions in funds of commodity producers whenever they have been most disfavored. I completed selling many funds of general equities which I had bought near their important low points in 2012, and which I unloaded on a gradual basis from January 28, 2013 through May 3, 2013. In late August and early September 2013 I was aggressively buying the shares of emerging-market country funds. During the past several weeks, I have added moderately to my funds of the most undervalued mining shares and emerging-market equities, especially during their most extended pullbacks. From my largest to my smallest position, I currently own GDXJ, KOL, XME, GDX, REMX, SIL, COPX, SCIF, GXG, GLDX, RSX, VGPMX, ECH, EWZ, IDX, BGEIX, VNM, URA, ZJG (Toronto), SLX, PLTM, and EPU. I have significantly reduced my total cash position since June 2013 in order to increase my holdings of the above assets, and I sold almost 90% of my SLX near 49 dollars per share because steel insiders were doing likewise.

Originally Posted by robo

Gold Stocks Bull Wedge & Fib Line Target Charts

Created by Camtasia Studio 7

Looks like that video was taken on Thursday, the GDXJ closed higher than the upper trend line on his falling wedge on Friday. we will see....