Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

Wall Street Is Lying to You, These Warning Signs Are Not
By Jeff Clark
Thursday, January 20, 2011


They say nobody rings a bell at the top of a bull market. But that's a lie.

The truth is… bells are ringing all the time. Yet no one listens.

http://www.growthstockwire.com/

Technical Overview: Week Of January 17th, 2011

Posted on January 18, 2011 by Babak
There has been little change since the previous technical overview. The market is still marked by a surprising amount of underlying strength hidden beneath a superficial layer of over-extension.

http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.co...ary-17th-2011/

Thursday, January 20, 2011
01/20/2011 After Bell Quick Summary

The bottom line, the short-term trend is down. I hold both long and short overnight.

Mixed signals for tomorrow. On one hand, we have so called Bullish Friday, while on the other hand, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, January Expiration Day, Dow down 10 of last 12. My best guess is at least we’ll see some weakness tomorrow morning, and still whether the intermediate-term was topped we have to wait and see.

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/

Top market-timer DeMark:
A BIG stock market decline is about to begin

Wednesday, January 19, 2011
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From Bloomberg:

U.S. stocks are within a week of "a significant market top" that is likely to precede a drop of at least 11% in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, said Tom DeMark, creator of a set of market-timing indicators.

http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/6729/Stocks

Bull Market Duration and Strength

By Barry Ritholtz - January 20th, 2011, 11:30AM

I was speaking with a friend who asked why 48% — why not 100% cash?

The short answer is that we are seeing some signs of a pullback, but not necessarily anything more ominous. Additionally, the 3rd year of a Presidency has lots of tailwinds in it for the markets.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01...-and-strength/

History Lesson - 01/19/11

The S&P 500 has risen by over 23% for more than three months and without a correction of 5% 26 times throughout history.

The current rally phase of 24% has lasted nearly 100 days vs. previous rallies of about 200 days.

http://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=879&catid=15

David Rosenberg

Why this market rally will end in tears

DAVID ROSENBERG | Columnist profile

We have an incredible bear market rally on our hands. History shows that these spasms can go further than anyone thinks. But after the U.S. market staged a monstrous 80-per-cent-plus rally from its March, 2009, lows (the most pronounced bounce in such a short time since 1955), it has become seriously overextended. Meanwhile, practically every pundit is extrapolating the recent trend into the future because that is the easy thing to do.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1874891/

IS EUROPE ON THE VERGE OF A DOUBLE DIP?

20 January 2011 by Cullen Roche 9 Comments

As austerity sets in on the periphery of Europe mainly (thanks in large part to the flawed currency system) there are increasing risks that a double dip could develop. Of course, many of these nations remain mired in deep recessions or depressions and the recent bailout packages all involve harsh austerity measures that will certainly keep them on their knees for years to come. As the problems in Portugal, Spain and Italy evolve there is the potential for even greater austerity and forced pain in the EMU. Meanwhile, the core nations have largely recovered, however, there are signs of weakness.

In a recent strategy note the always excellent Michael Darda, Chief Economist of MKM Partners detailed the reasons why he is becoming increasingly concerned about a Eurozone double dip:

http://pragcap.com/is-europe-due-for-a-double-dip

Some good information from tradersnarrative and seabreezepartners. I think I'll read'em twice because they were so good.

SPX Correction Looms

By: Adam Hamilton | Fri, Jan 21, 2011 Share Print Email The US stock markets have enjoyed an awesome run since late August, with the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) up 23.7%.

Traders have earned huge profits in sectors that leverage general-stock-market gains, including commodities stocks. But as usual after any long and uninterrupted rally, complacency reigns supreme today. Such sentiment is a prime breeding ground for spawning corrections.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/197...rrection-looms

Another excellent tutorial from Hamilton. However, I believe because of the months of internal rotations taking place the SPX is not going to retreat while the R2K already has given back over 4%. Large caps will hold the day this time around. This type of behavior fits my grand plan - and no I'm not complacent.