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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #3445

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX weekly: During the last two Bear Markets how far did the SPX move below its 200 week MA before bottoming? This chart gives you an idea. We shall see how this Bear Market plays out!

    Bottom Line: The weekly trend remains down....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #3446

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Bear market rallies are some really good ones if you can time it correctly!

    Hammer time!

    If it doesn't want to go down..
    Quick update of those powerful hammer candles in the making.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #3447

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: The talking heads on TV are telling folks the market keeps selling off because the Fed will keep increasing rates.... I say great- Because I have some CD's coming due very soon.

    Bottom Line: The SPX remains on a sell signal as investors continue to sell the rips! It looks like 4% rates or higher are probably in the bag! Another nice bounce off of the lows...... Someone is BTD today.... It's not me.....

    Waiting another extreme to buy SSO as we get deeper into this daily cycle.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #3448

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Hmmmm..... Not sure about this recovery just yet, but buyers did come in.

    Undercut -> Recovery

    Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

    Stocks undercut the day 54 low on Friday. Monday's swing low recovered the breakdown level to indicate that day 62 was the DCL. A close back above the 10 day MA will provide more assurance that day 62 was the DCL. But we will really need to see a close above the declining trend line in order to label day 62 as the DCL.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...rcut-recovery/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #3449

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: Cycles..

    Undercut –> Still In Play

    Stocks printed a lower low on Tuesday.

    Tuesday was day 64 for the daily cycle, placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL. There are bullish divergences developing the oscillators that often proceed the cycle low. A swing low and recovery of the 8886.75 breakdown level will indicate the DCL. A close back above the 10 day MA will provide more assurance that day 64 was the DCL However stocks will not be out of the woods until they can close above the declining trend line.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...still-in-play/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #3450

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: The pattern is getting closer to completing, and the first gap has filled..... We shall see how the rest of the week plays out. As deep as we are into this daily cycle one would think we should get a nice bounce soon....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #3451

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX monthly: So far a very ugly monthly candle! How about a bounce off the 50 month MA...... A bounce off the 50 month MA happens during in a Bull Market, but how about a Bear Market? We shall see.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #3452

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: It looks like the lower gap fill is in play..... What happens if it does fill? Then what? A higher low, maybe a lower low, or just a back-test. We could be moving into a possible bloodbath phase before the next bounce. That would take us into next week and a possible lower low. Those are all guesses..... we will just have to wait and see!

    Bottom Line: Bear Market rules apply, and the trend remains down.
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    Last edited by robo; 09-22-2022 at 08:56 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #3453

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: We shall see how it plays out. If the cycle data proves correct we COULD see a lower low.... I will just be watching as I remain on a sell signal for the SPX.

    Bloodbath Phase

    When stocks undercut the day 54 low last Friday, the bullish divergence on the oscillators indicated a continuation of the daily cycle decline. Recovery of the breakdown level would have indicated an extended daily cycle low.

    When stocks formed a swing low on Monday it looked, in real time, that the undercut-extended daily cycle low scenario was valid. Then stocks were rejected by the breakdown level on Wednesday then delivered bearish follow through on Thursday. Which makes me think we need to label day 54 as the DCL which would make Thursday day 12 of a failed daily cycle. And loosing the breakdown level signals that stocks have entered a bloodbath phase - which can last 5 to 10 days.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #3454

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily: Filling the lower gap......


    Market Bearishness Is Reaching a Tipping Point
    By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute
    This has been a tough month for the stock market.

    As of Wednesday’s closing price, the S&P 500 was down more than 4% for September. The Russell 2000 has been hit with a 4.5% decline. And the Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen 5%.

    Unsurprisingly, lots of investors are nervous heading into the end of the month. And the aggressive folks are talking about making big bets on the short side.
    But the market is setting up for a bounce…

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/
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    Last edited by robo; 09-23-2022 at 08:47 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #3455

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily update: Well, we filled the gap! Waiting to see if we really are entering the bloodbath phase or the SPX bounces soon. If we are in the bloodbath phase we should see more pain going into next week.

    Back test of the lows or a lower low is up next..... Buying some SSO for a trade - ( a possible lower high and I will be using a stop) 09/23/2022 1045 Bought SSO @ 42.165

    Tough market to be counter-trend trading in, but I like the odds for a ST trade based on my data.

    Bottom Line: The trend remains down and Bear Market Rules are in play!
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    Last edited by robo; 09-23-2022 at 09:26 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #3456

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX daily update with 2 hours left to trade: 2 hours to go and the Bloodbath phase is currently in play.... The SPX is currently back testing the June lows and the pattern is almost complete... I have NO IDEA if it will hold...... We shall see how it all plays out and if buyers come in before the close. I'm adding a few more shares of SSO...... Using a stop below the current June low marker.

    Bottom Line: The trend remains down, Bear Market rules in play, and this is a counter-trend trade.
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    Last edited by robo; 09-23-2022 at 01:00 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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