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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #3373

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    So when will the Fed start cutting rates again? LOL.... "Recession risks have started to trump the inflation narrative"

    David Rosenberg
    @EconguyRosie
    ·
    Jun 24
    Memo to the uninitiated: it is the change in jobless claims and not the level that presage the recession call -- and the move off the cycle trough says we're more than 80% of the way towards heading there.

    #RosenbergResearch #Economy
    David Rosenberg
    @EconguyRosie
    ·
    Jun 24
    Copper below $4 per pound, down over 24% from the highs (bear market), and down to a 16-month low tells me that “recession” risks have overtaken “inflation” risks.

    #RosenbergResearch
    David Rosenberg
    @EconguyRosie
    ·
    Jun 23
    The S&P Global mfg PMI dove to 52.4 in June from 57.0 & services were even weaker. Recession risks have started to trump the inflation narrative -- the stock market figured it out first & now the bond market is catching up. The Fed has one more hike left in July & then it’s over.
    https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en



    Mohamed A. El-Erian
    @elerianm

    "I’ve covered the #markets and the #economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people—or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers—were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent."


    What to expect from a recession 'everyone' sees coming: Morning Brief
    Recessions seems to be the talk of the town these days. So: if "everyone" knows a recession is coming, does that change what the

    What to expect from a recession 'everyone' sees coming: Morning Brief
    Andy Serwer with Dylan Croll
    Sat, June 25, 2022, 5:00 AM·6 min read

    https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/mo...110003339.html
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  2.  
  3. #3374

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    FOMO is here

    Has sell the rip transformed into a FOMO chase? Friday was a very powerful day and most that "planned" to buy "cheap" stuff missed buying post the first move higher on June 21. Expecting things to come down again, they were shocked by Friday's px action. The psychological set up here is very powerful. Goldman's Flood sums it up well: "Today felt like a potential pivot point with bid getting healthier as we finally saw L/Os come in and passively buy (they have been net sellers on every single trading session since 6/7). FOMO is real at the moment (MFs currently sitting on well over $200b in cash right now and buying will intensify on moves higher). This community also took advantage (as buyers) of the abundance of liquidity on the closing bell today.... Today is not an all clear but I would certainly be more patient selling this pop as it was highest quality rally I have seen in over a month". Don't forget there is some month end re balancing stuff to be executed (approx $33bn says GS), as well as other supportive flow (here).

    July FOMO
    Did we start the front running on Friday?
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #3375

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Small-caps record cheap
    P/E of Small craps - Large caps.


    Sentiment: STRONG BUY
    BofA Bull & Bear Indicator since 2002
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #3376

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Jesse Felder Retweeted
    Coinfessions
    @coinfessions
    ·
    Jun 25
    Hearing her voice shake as we try to figure out a game plan rattles my spirit.

    Jesse Felder Retweeted
    Macro Charts
    @MacroCharts
    ·
    Jun 25
    New record low.

    https://twitter.com/jessefelder
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  8.  
  9. #3377

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    NAAIM update:
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #3378

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Bull Bear Update:
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #3379

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Jesse Felder
    @jessefelder
    ·
    21h
    "Today I am starting to behave aggressively. Everything we deal in is significantly cheaper than it was six or 12 months ago." -
    @HowardMarksBook
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #3380

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    No recession - what is the trade?
    What if the recession doesn't materialise? JPM writes: "...if a recession does not materialize (as is our base case), then the market will see a rotation out of defensives and into oversold higher beta and smaller cap market segments".

    The investment bank recommends buying the Russell 2000 3M 105-115% call spreads for around 2.65% of notional indicatively. That gives you a 4x max pay out ratio. Russell volatility isn't overly rich on a relative basis.

    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  16.  
  17. #3381

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Do you subscribe to sentimentrader? Looks like gold miner sentiment is in the toilet. Time to buy?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #3382

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Do you subscribe to sentimentrader? Looks like gold miner sentiment is in the toilet. Time to buy?
    I no longer subscribe to Sentiment Trader. The last two years of rare extremes has caused me to move on from using sentiment for trading. I still track it, but use cycles more now.

    GDX daily: Remains on a sell signal. I have been mainly day-trading the miners, and I'm still holding a small position overnight..... No leverage. I only use JNUG/NUGT for daytrading, and close out those positions daily.
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    Last edited by robo; 07-26-2022 at 07:44 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #3383

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Gold Weekly: Still holding above the 1675ish support level, but far below the 10 week MA....

    Waiting on the Fed.....
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    Last edited by robo; 07-26-2022 at 07:43 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  22.  
  23. #3384

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDX weekly: Remains on a sell signal, but I do have some shares of EQX, GDXJ, and SILJ. Waiting on the Fed and a confirmed buy signal to add....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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