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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #3349

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF weekly: 31 weeks since moving below the 20 week MA on a weekly closing price. Closing below the 20 week MA is a confirmed sell signal for me. I was early and whipsawed during this move down too trying to trade the short-term bounces using TSP funds, but overall doing well in my trading accounts. Counter-trend trading in a down trend and in this case, a Bear Market is something TSP Funds is impossible to do unless you are just very lucky.

    I'm still trading like we are very close to a low and an ICL. We shall see "IF" we get an ICL soon can VXF can move back above the 100 week MA.
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    Last edited by robo; 06-18-2022 at 08:41 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #3350

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY weekly: Still NO TEST of the 200 week MA. We shall see how next week plays out!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #3351

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    The SPX weekly 2000ish historical Bear Market chart. A chart many are watching now. Some very nice weekly rips and dips to trade if we are about to see a similar pattern.


    2002 trajectory remains the base case, or?

    So far the 2002 NASDAQ analogy has worked very well. Selling violent squeezes is an art itself, but bounces can also be interesting plays. Let's see how things develop post FOMC and if we resume the "base case" trajectory with the "grinding" bear continuing to create huge frustration and p/l pain.
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    Last edited by robo; 06-19-2022 at 01:28 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #3352

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    My answer is it depends on your time you will be holding positions. I buy and sell often.....

    Shorting is huge
    We have seen some extreme shorting take place lately. As we noted on Friday, the perceived bear is stronger than the actual bear. NASDAQ futs basically closed at the same levels we traded at on Monday lows, after having moved both higher as well as lower. Imagine the short pain should this decide to bounce from here...
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #3353

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    This would sure change my trading style.....

    The SEC is trying to reshape the US stock market - but that could mean retail investors will have to start paying fees on trades again
    Carla Mozée Jun 11, 2022, 7:22 AM

    The Securities and Exchange Commission is aiming to shake up the mechanics of US stock trading in the wake of last year's meme-stock frenzy, and some experts in the markets say changes could lead to a shift back to retail investors paying commissions to make trades.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...od-fees-2022-6
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #3354

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX 2000 Bear Market


    This is what the bulls are focusing on

    Bear market rallies
    Bear market rallies get bigger the longer the bear market continues. We are now entering our 4th squeeze of the 2022 vintage bear. Magnitude of 4th squeeze in 02 and 08 bear vintages: 21% and 19% respectively
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #3355

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXF weekly: This is week 30 since moving below the 20 week MA.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #3356

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    "If Friday was the DCL, then a Tuesday entry provides the least risk of loss if stopped out."

    Risk/Reward

    likesmoneystudies

    Jun 21

    Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

    Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 19, which is very early for a DCL. But with the previous daily cycle being stretched at 60 days, a shortened daily cycle would help to balance out the cycle counts. The weekly cycle is also stretched, which increases the odds for an early DCL. Still, we will need to see a close above the declining 10 day MA, along with some bullish follow through to be assured that day 19 hosted an early DCL.
    "IF" Friday was the DCL, then a Tuesday entry provides the least risk of loss if stopped out. Waiting for more confirmation, such as recovering the 3943.42 break down level or a close above the 10 day MA provides more assurance that the DCL is set at the cost of a greater loss if stopped out at Friday’s low.
    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...risk-reward-2/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #3357

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #3358

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    What Alarm Bells Go Off at the Market Bottom?

    Hmmmm...... We shall see how it plays out!


    What Alarm Bells Go Off at the Market Bottom?
    David Rosenberg
    @EconguyRosie
    ·
    30m
    Check out the latest edition of my YouTube series Navigating the Noise – What Alarm Bells Go Off at the Market Bottom?


    https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #3359

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I wonder who the folks in Canada will blame for their inflation numbers - Headline #inflation in #Canada is also in "the highest for some 40 years" camp:
    Mohamed A. El-Erian
    @elerianm
    ·
    5h
    Headline #inflation in #Canada is also in "the highest for some 40 years" camp:
    CPI inflation for May came in at 7.7%, above both the April 6.8% print and consensus expectation of 7.3%.
    Core measures are at the highest levels on record.
    #EconTwitter #economy

    Mohamed A. El-Erian
    @elerianm
    ·
    7h
    More people are experiencing the basic policy dilemma associated with central banks, and particularly the Fed,having fallen so far behind in reacting to inflation:
    Wishing for a more aggressive front-loaded policy response AND worrying about the negative impact on economic growth
    https://twitter.com/elerianm
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #3360

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: The index did move back above the 10 DMA..... I'm using the 9 ema on my chart. We shall see if it has some legs next week....

    Stocks closed above the declining 10 day MA on Thursday

    Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 19, which is very early for a DCL. But with the previous daily cycle being stretched at 60 days, a shortened daily cycle would help to balance out the cycle counts. We will Thursday’s close above the 10 day MA to label day 19 as an early DCL. Stocks still need to break above the 3943 resistance level and turn the 10 day MA higher to be assured that day 19 did, indeed, host an early DCL.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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